Precision weapons running out? What kind of rockets is Russia firing at Ukraine?
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At the beginning of the week, Russia suffered a series of strikes on the territory, in connection with which relatively inexpensive kamikaze drones were required, which, as in Kyiv, were supplied by Iran. Security experts choose that Russia’s stockpile of modern precision-guided missiles is quite limited.
What missiles does Russia use?
To a large extent, after the explosion on the Crimean bridge, Russia launched a massive missile attack on the Ukrainian energy infrastructure. This raised questions about the crime’s type of crime.
Surveillance experts point out that the use of ground-to-air for the implementation of ground targets about the lack of controllable revolutions.
“Most seen in [последних атаках] “It’s the increased use of missiles against ground targets,” says Douglas Barry, senior research fellow for military space research. – Cruise missiles for strikes against ground targets – that’s where, in our opinion, there are problems. At least, in some cases, stocks, if not run out, are running out.”
Analysis: Iranian drones as a new threat to Ukraine and a symptom of a shortage of missiles
Pavel Aksenov, BBC Russian Service
Even when meeting Russia, it can find a replacement for its wing with missiles, it became how often Iranian-made drones are used in Ukraine.
With the advent of September, Geran-2 drones appeared in the skies over Ukraine, and more recently their smaller version, Geran-1. So in Russia they call Iranian-made UAVs, respectively, “Shahed-136” and “Shahed-131”. These are inexpensive and wide devices that are found, however, increase the intensity of the impact and hit large and vulnerable stationary targets.
Iran has been spending heavily on the production of drone systems since the late 1980s, but with the advent of more or less freely available parts for the production of drones and navigation systems.
Like any new weapon in the war, they did not face active opposition. Although the UAF has discovered that more than half of the Shaheds are hiding, these drones are still quite difficult to intercept – they are not well stored, they are quite difficult to hit.
In conditions when Russia lacks roads for winged and ballistic tasks, it is difficult to find such simple and affordable means.
True, action usually creates reaction, and, most likely, many specialists are currently working on the problem of neutralizing the consequences of drones. A cheap solution is not often super effective, and most often they will learn how to deal with them.
But until this happens, most likely, the rocket in the Ukrainian will not be smaller, and there will be more drones.
At the beginning of the war, Russia used a large number of precision guided missiles for use on ground targets in Ukraine, but the number of strikes decreased in the summer, and some Western defense officials believe that stockpiles of precision-guided weapons have been significantly depleted during the war.
Jeremy Fleming, head of Britain’s Government Communications Center (GCHQ), said this week: “We know – and Russian commanders on the ground are watching – that supplies and revenues are coming.”
Can it be proven?
The number of missiles that Russia has is a guarded secret, and we do not know on what materials the assessments of Western intelligence agencies were found. However, footage from the rocket attacks provides some clues.
Some photographs of the aftermath of the strikes posted online show debris resembling S-300 missiles. Judging by such messages on social networks, the S-300s were repurposed by Russia for ground use:
Russian S-300 rocket fell on an office building in Kharkiv. A 45-year-old man was shrapneled after Russia fired five S-300 missiles from Belgorod. They struck office, residential, business and school premises.
The S-300 anti-aircraft missile system is designed for airborne use.
We have carefully studied the photos on the Internet and found that three images of the aftermath of shelling in Ukraine have debris, simultaneously with S-300 surface-to-air missiles. remember that both Russia and Ukraine inevitably demand and accuse him of carrying over the application.
We compared the inscriptions that are located on the side of the wreckage with the images of the S-300, and the markings matched. Rocket sizes are also possible.
Some believe that Russia uses these modes of transport because you do not have more accurate missiles.
They used quite a few long-range missiles to hit targets in Kyiv, Lvov and other cities. like the S-300,” says Louise Jones of McKenzie Intelligence Services, an intelligence analysis firm.
The use of federal air travel for ground use may also be explained by the operational limitations that Russian air forces have encountered with regularity over Ukraine. From the very beginning of the invasion, Russian aviation did not experience superiority on the island.
Could it be Ukrainian missiles?
The Ukrainians also used the S-300 for its intended purpose – to destroy Russian missiles. Moscow says they are falling to the ground, backfiring and causing casualties among the population.
Yevgeny Popov, deputy chairman of the State Duma committee on information technology, told the BBC that the damage, serious civilian area, such as playgrounds, is “work” [украинских] anti-missile systems.
According to weapons experts, it is very difficult to determine the purpose of the missile for its wreckage.
“A high-explosive fragmentation warhead like the one on most missiles like the S-300 will create similar debris anyway… so I think it’s pretty hard to answer here,” – Sidharth Kaushal, Analytical Research Fellow Defense and Security Center of the Royal Association of Defense Research Institutes (RUSI).
Ian Williams, a research fellow at the Center for Statistical and International Studies, says he has not seen any evidence that Ukrainian systems failed during recent attacks.
need to draw a lot of attention, by the remarkable images of the wreckage. But Williams is unlikely to deploy Ukrainian air defense systems in city centers: “Usually they consider deploying on the outskirts of the place you want. [украинские] anti-missile weapons are unlikely to land in areas of the sun.”
What other weapons does Russia use?
Russia has begun to anticipate this year with a flurry of missile strikes. By March 7, the Pentagon estimated that about 600 missiles were sent by the Russians in the first 11 days.
Attacks continue from land, sea and air, the latter mainly involving Russian territory.
The types of weapons in Russia are Iskander ballistic and cruise missiles, as well as Caliber cruise missiles, which are launched from ships and submarines stationed in the Black Sea.
These are older rockets designed for space use rather than ground use. This circumstance further strengthened the opinion of a number of experts who believe that Russian stocks of some modern weapons may be running out.