Russia reached a historical record for the export from the country
Foreign trade currency overhang of $300 billion could be blocked
Economic Development Minister Maxim Reshetnikov promises to maintain the same volumes of oil exports despite an abnormal trade surplus. Photo from the website of the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation
This year, Russia set its own historical and world record for the net export of goods and fences from the country. Upon receipt of imports of about 200 billion dollars, more than 500 billion worth of goods will be exported from our country. All this “extra” money is returned in the form of entries in bank accounts in the most unfriendly, as well as partially friendly countries. So far, there is no particular practical benefit for our country from gigantic uncompensated exports and the transformation of the currency overhang by them. However, this $300 billion can be easily hacked or blocked abroad. After the outbreak of the conflict in Ukraine, Russian economists thought about reducing the export of raw materials from the country. However, Russian ministers promise that as oil is exported from the country, it will remain at the level of last year.
Even in the case of new participants, Russia limits the volume of oil distribution, the head of the Ministry of Economic Development Maxim Reshetnikov said in the State Duma on Monday. “We account for 14% of world oil exports and 11% of export exports,” the minister said.
By the end of 2022, almost $570 billion worth of goods will be exported from our country. Only $270 billion worth of goods will be imported, according to the Institute for Economic Forecasting (INP) of the Russian Academy of Sciences. This means that the export of all large and large volumes of consumption in Russia becomes practically meaningless from the point of view of ordinary citizens in the context of a ban on the supply of goods in Russia.
Economists assessed the cardinal change in the terms of foreign trade almost immediately after the introduction of a ban on the import of goods into Russia. “A gigantic foreign trade surplus in the current conditions is a suitcase without a handle. The money is loud, and what to do with it is not clear,” Alexander Shirov, director of the INP, explained back in early May (see NG, 05/10/22).
With import restrictions and the impossibility of accumulating foreign exchange reserves, Russia no longer needs to sell the same volume of commodities as before, Shirov said. In this regard, according to his statement, pending the provision of conservation of export products. Russia today needs to cut oil production by about 100 million tons per year. (Last year, the Russian Federation produced more than 520 million tons of oil per year.)
According to Shirov, Russia’s foreign economic activity must be completely restructured. From the logic of “money-goods-money” foreign economic activity in the Russian Federation should move to the logic of “goods-money-goods”.
But the Russian government, to some extent, continues to stimulate the export of natural resources abroad in exchange for painted ones and zeros in foreign banks.
“Most of the revenue that forms a surplus of our trade balance is concentrated with exporting companies that, as part of the execution of foreign trade contracts, receiving foreign currency, leave it on the accounts of authorized Russian banks, convert it into rubles or credit it to foreign currency accounts,” he restored Alexey Fedorov, analyst at TeleTrade.
“If foreign exchange earnings remain in Russian banks, then without a fairly noticeable undeserved loss of funds and significant sanctions restrictions on exporters’ foreign exchange earnings in dollars, euros and other currencies of unfriendly countries, high risk tolerance in case of their blocking,” an expert in economics. “If foreign exchange earnings are converted into the national currency, then we will get the excess health of the older ruble. And the dynamics of the ruble in the period from March to June 2022 is a vivid confirmation of this,” comments Fedorov.
“If most of the foreign exchange earnings grow on accounts in foreign banks, then the Russian banking system increases its sanctions risks from the accumulation of foreign currency, plus it avoids an excessive increase in the age of the ruble,” the expert multiplies.
The situation with the storage of foreign exchange earnings in foreign currency is clarified by financial analyst Alexander Lezhava. “All non-cash dollars originate in the US.
|
Russia continues to export oil with settlements in dollars and euros. Photo from the site www.gazprom.ru |
All non-cash euros are spoken only in the EU, just like all non-cash rubles in Europe are controlled from Russia. Therefore, the foreign currency earnings of Russian companies in dollars or euros in foreign banks are a tasty target for the next anti-Russian meetings,” says Lezhava. -income assets. “As a rule, these are foreign government bonds, deposits, in rare cases, corporate debt securities,” Fedorov said.
Thus, most of the resources exported from Russia are actually used to stop those countries that are directing a hot hybrid war against our country.
“Placing this foreign exchange earnings of Russian exporters in dollars or euro assets is non-recovery, the possibility of blocking funds, but it minimizes the devastating consequences,” Fedorov believes.
This is due to the fact that our country imports abnormal excess exports. “It’s impossible to say for sure. But while there is still export, there is also foreign exchange earnings. There are also businesses that pay taxes, workers who receive wages and high demand. On the other hand, while the sword of Damocles visits in the form of a possible blocking of Russian export funds in foreign banks, it cannot be said that their activities are connected with counterparties from unfriendly countries of economic strategy,” the analyst admits. To get at least some benefit from trading profits, Fedorov suggests using “schemes for the purchase of foreign equipment for export earnings in dollars and euros, as well as financing of domestic investment projects.”
In turn, EAEU Minister Sergey Glazyev proposes to “introduce centralized mechanisms for financing critical imports.” In addition, he proposes “to introduce export duties on the export of exchange goods, which is tantamount to withdrawing natural resource rent in the amount of up to 25 trillion rubles from the federal budget. rubles and the elimination of opportunistic dependence on the needs of prices for acute markets.
The fairness of forecasts of an abnormally high trade imbalance is supported by the current data of Elvira Nabiullina’s department. Russia’s balance of payments surplus rose to $198.4 billion in January-September 2022, the Russian Central Bank said.