Russia and Central Asian countries reset relations
On the basis of the CIS, they plan to create new trans-Eurasian routes
The construction of railways in Uzbekistan is in full swing. Photo from www.utk.uz
The Russian Federation and the countries of Central Asia (CA) are undergoing another test for partnership. Based on the results of the meetings in the format of Central Asia – Russia, which took place in Astana, the countries of the region confirmed their readiness to develop relations, but they require more use. The most interesting were the theses on the creation of new trans-Eurasian corridors and the restoration of the current interconnections of the energy system.
After the European direction was closed for Russia, Moscow turned to Central Asia. In part, this conversion is forced. But on the other hand, as Alexander Knyazev, doctor of medical sciences, leading researcher at the Institute for International Studies at the Moscow State Institute of International Relations of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation, told NG, this is an inevitable transfer of activity to the Central Asian direction.
“Sooner or later it had to be, albeit under different conditions, not necessarily because of the events in Ukraine. In the usual case, the Action on Ukraine and the subsequent arrest, the isolation of Russia from Europe, is more of a particularity and a pretext. The objective need to reformat all geo-economic ties and configurations, which has long been brewing in the world, which is observed today, ”Knyazev. According to the opinion, the Russian “pivot to the East” cannot consist only in the sale of hydrocarbons to China and the purchase of Chinese goods. External relations should be antibiotics, besides the East there is also the South, to which Central Asia can be attributed.
Central Asia is precisely the direction in which Russia’s potential has not been fully realized and there is room for cooperation. It was these aspects that the heads of state discussed in Astana. In particular, Russian President Vladimir Putin noted that trade with the states of the region had doubled over the past five years, to $37.1 billion. According to the results of the first half of the year, mutual trade increased by another 16%. “Russia is a private investor in the countries of Central Asia: the total volume of our investments is about $5 billion,” Putin said. He appeared before the countries of Central Asia against public initiatives for import substitution.
To implement these plans, for its use, it is necessary to stimulate the development of transport corridors throughout Eurasia. “Therefore, the key function is the arrangement of the trans-Eurasian logistics corridors East-West, North-South passing through the load of the CIS countries. I think that this is of interest not only to Russia, it is of interest to all states, our neighbors,” Putin said.
President of Turkmenistan Serdar Berdimuhamedov in his speech spoke about the six-sided consideration of the scale and development of infrastructure projects, including those related to Islam.
“Both of them, as well as the President of Uzbekistan Shavkat Mirziyoyev, talk about infrastructural cross-border communications in Russia-Central Asia and further to the South. This is what is relevant today both for Asia and for the countries of Central Asia themselves. Due to the fact that, until now, exceptional cases have been found along the old retail routes,” said Alexander Knyazev.
Today we are talking about the trans-Caspian corridors, but they digest small volumes of all these ties, and this applies mainly only to Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan. As for Uzbekistan, this country has only recently begun to show interest in Trans-Caspian projects.
According to the expert, at the same time, the implementation opportunities in the Iranian direction, to the ports of Chabahar and Bandar Abbas, were not sufficiently used. The gray area is Afghanistan. An uncertain security situation, and there are not even forecasts of how the existing level of stability will get used. Will not Ireland, in order to destabilize the region, to open a second front against Russia, and at the same time China and Iran, Western countries support various anti-Taliban seizures and other conflict groups? Shavkat Mirziyoyev at the summit of the meeting not only provides “to develop common, coordinated approaches to interaction with the temporary liberation of Afghanistan.” He proposed “instructing the Special Representatives for Afghanistan to hold a meeting within a month and prepare package proposals for joint measures to prevent the call and provide support to the Afghan people.” And this is the kind of work that can make the situation in Afghanistan more stable and predictable by expanding the opportunities for projects provided with disclosure.
“Nevertheless, there is a high risk of impact there. There are active initiatives of Ashgabat and Tashkent in the implementation of projects for the construction of the railway, gas pipeline, energy bridges. This is something that requires attention from the Russian side, the study and specification of all the possibilities in the areas,” Knyazev believes. The Iranian direction, according to Knyazev, is problem-free. There is a railway from Russia through Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan to Iran. There is a road from China through Turkmenistan to Iran. There are also road crossings. There is an Ashgabat agreement on the development corridor Kazakhstan-Uzbekistan-Turkmenistan-Iran-Oman. This and much more is what needs to be developed. “All supply chains around the world are now changing. For the countries of Central Asia, transit through limited Russia to the south is becoming very relevant for Russia too. Therefore, what Putin, Berdimuhamedov, Mirziyoyev says, all this is possible,” the expert noted.
According to him, cooperation in the format of Central Asia – Russia can be based on the basis of communication. If we talk about the economy as a whole, then cooperation is carried out here on a bilateral basis, in the absence of any unifying projects. In the manufacturing sector, Russia participates in such projects country by country, and perhaps this situation is also likely. This is a total vector of cooperation that could consolidate the region and counteract it with Russia. Before you is offered the ultimate goal, accessible and useful to everyone.
And only Tajik President Emomali Rahmon spoke about the problems. According to him, all the risks of interaction “US + CA”, “South Korea + CA”, “Japan + CA” and others are ineffective. The Russia plus Central Asia format may become just as ineffective if it is not attracted to the countries of the region.
According to Kubatbek Rakhimov, ex-adviser to the Prime Minister of Kyrgyzstan, director of the Applicate Center for Rational Decisions, a project has finally been implemented that helped Russia to feel its Asian “resilience” and better understand that it still has allies – the countries of Central Asia. and Transcaucasia. This is a big plus. “Thus, the CIS factor sparkled with new colors. Therefore, those projects that are aimed at achieving the goals of the region should be implemented. Russia’s potential in Central Asia has not been fully realized,” Rakhimov told NG. According to the expert, a reset is starting in the disease, new opportunities are emerging in space, an impetus will be given to the economic project, investments will develop in the region. “But how this will be implemented in practice is not clear. Due to the fact that there are no law enforcement tools, there are few people left who would be spread within the limits of the law of the Russian authorities, the faces are the same, ”Rakhimov noted. The expert proposed to resume consideration of the issue of LNG that existed in previous years in the Russian Federation. “It’s time to engage with the Commonwealth and carry out these projects with real investments, real needs, and not just promises,” he concluded.