Economy / Nezavisimaya Gazeta
It is best to regain export industries in the Russian Federation
The Central Bank believes that economic activity in the country worsened in the first quarter. Photo by Moscow agency
The Central Bank reports a deterioration in the dynamics of prisoners entering into negotiations in September. At the end of the third quarter, there is a weakening of economic activity. So far, incoming payments are explained by the presence of oil and gas, while those focused on domestic demand for the industry are in depression. A recovering slowdown in alcohol consumption was found to be associated with increased anxiety of the population and a decline with a reduced level of income. They also forecast deterioration in external consumption in export crops. Analysts believe that the bottom of the crisis has not yet been passed.
The volume of incoming payments (weighted by the share of the increased volume of GDP) conducted through the payment system of the Central Bank in September 2022 amounted to 2.5% compared to the average increase in the second quarter, follows from the monitoring of the regulator. At the same time, without taking into account the income of oil products and public administration, the rate of improvement of the state is 4.5%, specify in the department of Elvira Nabiullina.
The Central Bank emphasizes that the picture as a whole across industries remains extremely heterogeneous. So, in the focused, focused on appearance, the volume of incoming payment increased relative to the second quarter. At the same time, the main contribution, as in the opposite months, was made by the production of crude oil and gas. The Central Bank believes that this is influenced by the volume of recovery and growth from a low base in the second quarter. In turn, in the remaining arrays of exports of such structures of the oil refining and chemical industry, the volumes of receipts in September remain lower than in the bypass quarter, in the regulator.
In addition, continued in the department, outbound assembly volumes in a closed, outward-driven, observed missing levels from the second quarter (-10.1%). The Central Bank explains this discrepancy “between the receipt of the oil and gas sector and the payment of taxes by it, which are exceptional exceptions for some of the incoming sectors.”
Which includes situations focused on the worst consumer demand. The level of decrease in turnover in proportion to the quarter accelerated to 5.1%, which follows from the indicators of the regulator. “In September, the volume of incoming settlements in the financial sector was also observed in agriculture on average, which is lower in the quarter, but by the end of the month, this coverage is moving towards growth,” the Central Bank said. In retail trade, the volume of financial flows is also observed from the level of the second quarter, which is associated with the ongoing seasonal decline in prices.
The register pays attention to the inflow of income relative to quarters in densities such as food production. Growth of incoming financial flows on observations of observations in tourism and detention. According to the Central Bank, this is due to a gradual change in the structure of consumption of non-food products away from services against the backdrop of a limited supply of the former.
At the same time, in the district focused on intermediate consumption, the volume of incoming turnover also decreased – by 0.7% compared to the second quarter. “The main negative contribution to the financial sector, agriculture, as well as wholesale trade, where in September a stable lag behind the indicators of large quarters remained,” the Central Bank explains. In turn, the acceleration of industries focused on intermediate consumption, obtaining crude oil production and gas supply, as well as metallurgy. The latter, according to the regulator, has increased financial flows by reorienting the export of metallurgical products to new directions.
As follows from the monitoring of the Central Bank, in the concentration focused on investment demand, in some cases there was a slight increase in receipts (by 1.5%) compared to the second quarter. The department reports that a positive contribution was made by industries such as the construction of buildings and the construction of engineering structures, where, after a temporary pause in August and September, the positive trend resumed. However, with the discussion of growth stood out, focused on investment demand, mainly activities in the field of architecture and engineering design, electronics production. “In total income for September, a significant lag of large financial flows from the levels of large quarters remained,” Nabiullina’s department said.
A positive contribution to the extraction of minerals is realized in the production of oil and gas condensate in the Russian Federation in September.
The Ministry of Finance, according to the size of the report, is that in September oil and gas collections of the federal budget amount to 688.2 billion rubles, an increase of 16.3 billion compared to August.
And judging by the data, recent hopes for a recovery in consumer demand in the quarter also did not materialize. “Consumer demand remains unchanged… In August, as in August, retail sales in Russia were observed at 8.8% in terms of expression, and in September this dynamics fell even further. “The increase in trade turnover in recent months has declined even in significant terms,” Russian President Vladimir Putin said Thursday at a meeting with restrictions. According to the Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting (CMASF), the turnover of non-food products declined steadily – by 9.2 and 12.7% in the weeks from September 12 to 18 and from September 19 to 25, respectively. The slowdown in consumption of a relatively low level of low-income population, changes in consumer behavior of the population due to the growth of uncertainty and a healthy assortment of goods, commented in the CMASF (see “NG” of 06.10.22).
According to NG experts, it is best to control yourself today, tied to exports, and industries that are now entrusted with an import-substituting function. “Crude oil and natural gas are at the forefront. From January to early September 2022, growth here amounted to 2.2% compared to the same period in 2021, while coal and metal ore mining over the same period decreased by 2.5 and 3.5%, respectively. The situation is absolutely accessible, despite the import restrictions, the global energy crisis is forcing countries to buy Russian energy carriers,” says Alexey Fedorov, TeleTrade analyst. However, the future here is extremely unstable, he continues. Sanctions restrictions and supply uncertainties are setting the Russian mining industry in for a “very hard landing in 2023,” the expert predicts.
Still, the September data is worrying, says economist Andrei Loboda. “The beginning of autumn is an active time for business and citizens,” he recalls. According to Loboda, the deepest point of decline in GDP in monthly terms has not yet been passed. “This means that a further 5-7% decline in financial flows by the end of autumn may become a reality. The commodity market, metallurgy and energy-intensive, including data processing centers, are likely to abandon production in the lead and above high rates. But if by winter the moderately strong ruble does not give up its positions and wins over inflation, that requires a serious recovery in consumption, primarily in retail. In the meantime, against the backdrop of beautiful industrial production, one should not be surprised at the negative dynamics,” he sums up.