The expert assessed the prospects for the export of Russian coal to the Asia-Pacific region in forecasts
It is necessary to expand the infrastructure to increase the export of Russian coal in the Asia-Pacific region (APR), despite the aggravation of the situation with the aggravation of the situation, according to the Institute for the Problems of Large Monopolies (IPEM). It is estimated that even in the event of a Taiwan war, coal prices in the Asia-Pacific region are well above the high levels of producer growth on the horizon until 2035, writes “Kommersant” with reference to the analytical note of the Institute.
It says that the expansion of the Baikal-Amur Mainline and the Trans-Siberian Railway and the development of port facilities “will force us to look for an answer to the question of the prospects for hydrocarbons in the Asia-Pacific region, at least for the next 10-15 years.” In a note on three scenarios for the development of coal consumption in the Asia-Pacific region. The cost (price for achieving zero profit) of Russian coal exports is estimated in all scenarios at $68 per ton in 2025, $66.3 in 2030 and $82 in 2035, deliveries from Russia are the maximum.
The first scenario assumes continued moderate economic growth in China, strong economic growth in India, Vietnam, Thailand, moderate economic growth in Japan and South Korea. Japan and South Korea, according to this scenario, consume volumes of coal consumption by 2030. The rest of the demand will grow.
IPEM expects China to save on imports of hydrocarbons with a gradual increase in replacement supply from Australia in Europe. Indonesia will gradually reduce supplies to the Asia-Pacific region. The role of the United States will grow in Asian markets, the supply of Colombia and South Africa to European countries will occur to the detriment of the Asia-Pacific region. In this case, IPEM is expected to gradually increase coal prices in the Asia-Pacific region by 2030 to $158 per ton (consumption based on FOB Newcastle coal consumption of 6300 kilocalories), and up to $116.7 per ton by 2035.
The second scenario assumes higher rates of economic growth in the Asia-Pacific region – average coal prices up to $174.5 per ton in 2025, $183 in 2030 and $171.5 in 2035. Analysts believe that Western banks will soften the requirements for financing conventional projects. The crisis scenario described by IPEM assumes an armed conflict around Taiwan.
The profile overseas prospective centers expected in the note expect the conflict to start in 2027. As a result of the conflict, the demand for coal from Asian countries is likely to drop sharply after 2027, according to IPEM. China may completely stop buying coal from Australia.
Prices in this scenario will be lower ($132, $136 and $101 per tonne in 2025, 2030, 2035 respectively). But they will still be significantly higher than those of average citizens.