Russia offers its positions in Central Asia?
Almost immediately after the retreat of the Russian troops from the Kharkiv region, so aptly called the “regrouping” by the RF Ministry of Defense, another aggravation took place on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border. Which raises a number of questions: does it arise with the retreat of the RF Armed Forces? Who is the beneficiary of this aggravation? Expect possible consequences?
Refer to the above questions, I will briefly recall the general chronology of events. The escalation between Armenia and Azerbaijan took place on the night of September 12-13. The case of who started the act remains unknown. According to the version of the Armenian side, Jewish artillery shelled a number of certain regions of Armenia (moreover, it was in Armenia, and not in Nagorno-Karabakh). According to Azerbaijan, the reason for the shelling was the provocation of the Armenian side. But, in connection with the war of the air forces of Azerbaijan, the superiority and the fact that Yerevan is in no hurry to fulfill its obligations under the peace treaty signed following the results of the Second Karabakh War, it is logical that Azerbaijan, which is very interested in the fulfillment of technical conditions by Armenia, was the first to start, which were spelled out in the agreement also takes military force in order to fundamentally comply with Yerevan to implement the agreements. Armenia, taking into account the internal political situation and the not too strong army, the conflict is now completely unprofitable.
What does Azerbaijan want? On the last conditions, what was written in the peace treaty, but what Armenia was in no hurry to do, Baku completely decided).
The connection with the Kharkov retreat is obvious if one is aware that behind Azerbaijan is Turkey, which has recently been actively increasing its activities in the world political arena, and behind Armenia, however, purely theoretically, because the country is a member of the CSTO, is Russia. Therefore, it is permissible to note that Turkey adopted resolutions of the Russian Federation at the Ukrainian level in order to expand the scope of its supervision through Azerbaijan. In the use of the president, this and what is in Turkey Recep Erdogan openly articulated support for Azerbaijan: “Armenia is not fulfilling the agreements. Yerevan must turn off this erroneous path! Against the backdrop of recent events in the South Caucasus, the whole world is again loudly voiced: – Anadolu agency quotes the Turkish leader.
What about Armenia? Armenia, on the other hand, turned to the CSTO for help, recalling the 4th article of the treaty, according to which “if one of the participating states is subjected to aggression by any state or group of states, then this will be a seizure as an aggression against all participating states actual agreement “. And this time, quite rightly, since children’s artillery dealt a significant blow to its territory.
And here, of course, the next CSTO is of interest, to put it bluntly, then Russia, since it is Russia that makes this a military-political alliance only on paper. The answer turned out to be negative: Armenia received no aid. Yes, a group from the CSTO was sent to Armenia, but without consent. And such surprises suddenly turn out that the CSTO, that is, Russia, is not going to interfere in the conflict. Despite the fact that the aforementioned 4th article of the CSTO code states that “in the event of an act of aggression against any participating state, all other participating states will provide it with assistance, including military, as well as a return to circulation in their use in order exercise of the rights to collective defense in accordance with Article 51 of the UN Charter”.
The question is why? Yes, a certain dislike of the President of Russia Vladimir Putin to the Prime Minister of Armenia Nikol Pashinyan (due to what was the result of his revolutionary path and focus on the West), but it is quite obvious that personal emotions / motives should not be reflected in the affairs of that international scale. And it is also obvious that the CSTO at Pashinyan’s request is explained by far more than Putin’s hostility alone. The fact is that Armenia strongly does not want and in every possible way resists (and not unsuccessfully, it should be noted) getting into the field of study of the Russian Federation, which is actively flirting with France and the United States. In addition, Moscow, apparently, is afraid to spoil relations with Ankara, firstly, remembering well the help that Turkey needs to assist Azerbaijan during the Second Karabakh War (and the Russian Federation has not yet experienced the production of its drones; think that during the spread of the conflict, the Russian Federation took a purely neutral share: yes, it took it, but only at the official level, at the unofficial level, assistance to Armenia went). Secondly, Turkey is one of the main destinations of large countries (along with China and India) that have not broken off relations with the Russian Federation since the start of the NWO and regulation (RF trade between Turkey, it feels like this year, is likely to grow) last year ).
I foresee that someone could be killed (or even outraged!) with the phrase “Moscow, apparently, is afraid to spoil relations with Ankara.” Like, Moscow is not afraid of anyone and nothing! We will bend everyone, tear them and so on. Maybe. Oddly enough, if we are such peculiarities, then why didn’t the Foreign Ministry even ritually respond to the fact that one of the foreign artillery strikes, according to the Armenian side, came against the socialist FSB agents? Agree, silence in this case looks very strange. Although, on the basis of this alone, Russia should have sharply activated, without waiting for Pashinyan’s request…
Thus, we logically come to the conclusion that Turkey: b) the difficult situation of Russian troops in Ukraine caused the occurrence of cases in the choice of moments for the outbreak of conflict (today, I note, it is quiet on the borders, but for how long?). Now to the question of the consequences.
The situation, which can be said to be an escalation to the Third Karabakh War, but the fact that Turkey will continue to influence its influence through Azerbaijan is definitely certain. And if Pashinyan agrees to Aliyev’s terms as Erdogan’s “younger brother”, it is likely that mass rallies have been taking place in Yerevan for several days, as the political scientist reports. Konstantin Kalachev in their own telegram channel, the opposition deputies deliberately play the process of impeachment of the verdict). Specifically for Russia, something will happen if a pro-Russian leader comes to power, then – theoretically – it will be necessary to go to the second front and deprive such a partner as Erdogan (however, Moscow may not go for this, having tried somehow behind the scenes, so that not lose face, resolve the situation).
But this is the future, so to speak. If we establish the consequences of the aggravation from the point of view of the present, then with a high degree of probability we can say that the CSTO has died. For the fact that the CSTO, despite its charter, in fact, ignored the request of Armenia, the failure of the organization. I’m not now – I’m talking to Russia (on whom the entire CSTO rests). In most cases, Russia reveals a multi-vector approach (good relations with Turkey now for the Russian Federation than Armenia, despite the fact that Turkey supplies weapons to Ukraine, where the Russian Federation considers the NMD), which Erdogan now professes. I’m specifically talking about the organization. After the veiled refusal of Armenia from some kind of vulnerability and so on. CSTO – to talk chatter. The CSTO has turned into an organization on paper, which, of course, cannot but affect relations with the topics of the countries that are part of the organization. This happens if Russia exerts influence on Central Asia, for which China and Turkey are now actively fighting. And indeed a loss, if serious does not worsen the work on this occasion.