What do we know about Russia’s losses during Ukraine’s counter-offensive?
- Olga Ivshina
- BBC
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Ukraine’s swift counter-offensive in the Kharkiv region resulted not only in the fact that the Russians captured a number of previously detained identified specific points, but also in the loss of personnel. Based on open data from the BBC, it was possible to establish that from September 5 to September 12, Russia captured more than 200 military personnel in Ukraine, including 57 of the best specialists – soldiers and officers of special forces, marines, the best units of the Airborne Forces and the National Guard.
The BBC Russian service due to the loss of names of Russian servicemen in connection with the withdrawal of “Mediazon” (recognized in Russia as a “media-foreign agent”) and volunteers.
We rely only on confirmed cases, so the data collected does not reflect the real level of casualties. We can understand and determine what exactly happens to the Russian army during an invasion of a neighboring country.
In total, on September 16, we managed to find 6476 dead soldiers and officers.
An idea of how many dead did not make it into our selection of reports comes from information from cemeteries. Every week we discover new cases of collecting data on local provinces in certain localities in Russia.
In fact, the indications we found that the list of confirmed losses that were found by the BBC could be revealed at least 40-60% fewer names of the dead than actually buried in Russia.
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The results of the retreat
Judging by the weight of Ukraine, the Russian army lost fewer lieutenant colonels during the counteroffensive. Friends and colleagues reported that Lieutenant Colonel Denis Lazutin died during the defense of Balakleya. The battalion commander of the 106th Airborne Division, Pavel Krivov, died near Izyum on September 9th. On the same day, the battalion commander of the 70th motorized rifle division, Lieutenant Colonel Dmitry Kochetkov, died among the residents of Ust-Ilimsk.
During the days of Ukraine’s counter-offensive in the Kharkiv region, two retired lieutenant colonels also took place. Both were over 45 years old and both went on bail to Ukraine voluntarily. At the same time, Kirill Korostelev, who died earlier managed serve five years in the French Foreign Legion, as well as fight in Palestine and follow (most likely in a private private public company).
In total, only from 5 to 12 September, 27 officers died in Ukraine. Among them are two military pilots. These are piece specialists and the elite of any army in the world. The training of one sniper pilot can take 15-17 years and costs 12-14 million dollars.
Among those killed during the retreat were at least 10 members of the National Guard, including the captain of the OMON detachment from the Komi Republic. Judging by reports from the Kharkiv region, the first strike of the Ukrainian military counterintelligence attack came to the location of OMON and SOBR.
These formations of the National Guard, as a rule, specialize in dispersing demonstrations and detaining small armed people involved in combined arms combat. Participation in such battles requires completely different activities and training, the soldiers and officers of the National Guard may lack.
Also among the dead were from 5 to 12 – for a smaller number of GRU special forces, 10 September marines and for a smaller number of 29 paratroopers.
Information about the loss of the Russian side during the retreat in the Kharkov region continues to arrive. Usually, the Russian media, representatives of officials and representatives learn and report on world events with a certain delay.
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More about the losses in the seven months of the war
In terms of available reserves, Dagestan (301 people), Buryatia (267 people) and Krasnodar Territory (256 people) are still in the lead. For comparison: only 23 people died in the capital, although almost 9% of the Russian population.
In many regions of Russia where elevator specialists do not work, military contract service is almost the only way to get a stable income.
Russian public officials are less and less reporting on the global situation in Ukraine, so monuments are becoming important sources of information: wall plaques in schools, tombstones in cemeteries, memorials in parks and military units.
An unusual but important factor was the case of photographs of those killed in the army, exhibited for the time being by the chief of the Russian armed forces in boxing in Borisoglebsk. According to German data, data on 47 dead soldiers and officers of the 3rd Guards GRU Special Forces Brigade were published. After reviewing the photos on the stand, the BBC elected that most of the mentioned commandos had previously appeared in the media and social networks, but without indicating the service of the place. Not previously reported publicly.
The BBC also continues to study burials in cemeteries in various regions of Russia. On them, we find not only the burial places of those whose meeting was publicly reported, but also about the same (and sometimes more) tombstones of soldiers and officers, neither the authorities, nor local journalists, nor representatives in social networks reported about the death.
Over the past two weeks, such graves have been discovered in the Kaluga and Kaliningrad archives, as well as in the Krasnodar Territory.
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Of the 6,476 identified servicemen who died in Ukraine, 1,116 people – that is, 17% – are officers, among them four generals and 34 colonels.
Judging by the death toll over seven months, the largest proportion of casualties fell on junior officers. In the Russian army, you often have to make practical tactical decisions about fear management.
Moreover, most of them are still young (the rank of lieutenant is most often received at the age of 21-22)
Most of the senior officers, especially colonels, died in the first two months of the war. It was at that time that the Russian army community was expanding the problems with communications and logistics, and also advancing immediately in the true directions. After the communication between headquarters and significant fighting units was broken, colonels and generals began to die less often.
From September 5 to September 12, there was again a surge in heavy losses among senior officers in the rank from major to lieutenant colonel. Perhaps this is due to the fact that the retreating unit of the Russian army needed coordination, and high-ranking military men again had to go to the front line.
By type of troops
For the seventh month of the stock deficit deficit – 20% – stock shortage. But the proportion of dead paratroopers is gradually decreasing. On September 16, 17% of all the dead were from the Airborne Forces, until the beginning of every fifth of August, the deceased was a paratrooper.
Now, according to BBC sources on the front line, a large assault load falls on the PMC unit and detachments of those whom the Russian media call volunteers.
According to a number of human rights activists, some residents of Chechnya are going to groups of “volunteers” because they are at risk and pressure on the family.
Before being sent to the front, detachments of “volunteers” usually go through only 3-10 days of training. Perhaps this is also why the “volunteers” showed a rapidly growing category of loss itself.
By September 16, information is expected about the approaching situation of at least seven meetings that fought as part of Russian paramilitary units. The recruitment of Russian messages for the front was first reported by the Gulagu.net project in early July. Then the journalists of several publications wrote about it.
According to Mediazona’s calculations, by the end of August the war send at least 480 contractual.
How can there be a massive death toll?
Given the information that came from Russian cemeteries and memorials, the list of confirmed casualties that the BBC could find could be at least half the number of military dead in Ukraine than actually buried in Russia.
The final figure also increased significantly if the list includes the losses of all the missing military from Russia and the “people’s militias” of Donetsk and Lugansk. On September 16, the authorities of the self-proclaimed DPR recognized the death of 2987, in the self-proclaimed LPR, no losses are reported.
In the elections of the “DPR” and “LPR” in the social networks of the BBC, there are more than 3,600 messages and posts of people who are looking for their male relatives, who ended up in the ranks of the “people’s militia” and have not been in contact for a long time. Some of those who were searched for in the first months of the war had already returned home with “cargo 200”.
According to the CIA, by the end of July, Russia had lost more than 15,000 troops in Ukraine. British intelligence reported 20,000 dead back in June. The reports of the General Staff of Ukraine say that Russia has lost more than 50 thousand soldiers and officers.
There are no updated statistics on the losses of the Russian side. The Russian Ministry of Defense last reported on the loss on March 25, reporting 1,351 dead.
We continue to collect data on the dead. If you would like to share information on this topic, please contact us via the link.
How do we translate
In Russia, every day more and more new names of the dead and photographs from the funeral are registered. a number of names are called by the heads of Russian regions or representative district administrations, local media and educational institutions where the dead, as well as relatives, previously studied.
The BBC and a team of volunteers are looking into this data and adding it to the list we have been keeping since the beginning of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
We have not studied the media about dozens of reports, and sometimes about hundreds of victims, if they do not contain specific information about names and surnames. Until February 24, as part of the army self-proclaimed republics of Donbass, there were posts that served as part of the self-proclaimed republics of Donbass.