On the Great Stand — Russia in Global Affairs
After the liberation in the first days of July, Severodonetsk and Lisichansk hostilities in Ukraine almost subsided. It was revealed that Moscow proceeds from a routine reaction: resources are spent insignificantly, the state apparatus is working on solving the problem, adapting the economy, while a special military operation is taking place in a kind of standby mode against the backdrop of turbulence in the global economy and a deepening energy analysis in Europe.
However, in late summer and early autumn, events took place on the Ukrainian front that called into question the prospects for such a “great standing”. As we expected, the stabilization of the front and the operational pause on the part of the Russian army were delayed to the point that the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) began to seize the initiative and eventually launched two offensive operations.
About the summer heat
Sergey Poletaev
Last weekend, the territory of the Lugansk Republic was completely liberated. This is not only a symbolic stage in the entire battle for Donbass, but also the completion of the capture of the military operation: the Rubizhne-Severodonetsk-Lysichansk agglomeration is the second largest after Mariupol among those for which serious battles were fought.
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In the Kherson region, the capture of the territory between the Ingulets and Dnieper rivers is supplied through three crossings: the railway and road bridges in Kherson, as well as through the dam and bridges of the Kakhovka hydroelectric complex. With the discovery of summer, the Armed Forces of Ukraine shelled this crossing with varying success: despite the relative effectiveness and the collapse of individual sections of bridges, in general, the intruder failed to supply both the Russian army group and Kherson, located on the right bank.
On August 20, the Armed Forces of Ukraine launched a major offensive in several sectors of the front, among the most notable – the capture of a bridgehead on the southern bank of the Ingulets near Andreevka. It is assumed what will happen to this bridgehead with a strike in the south-southeast to the Kakhovka dam and Berislav and cut off the north-eastern group processing of the Russian Armed Forces, forcing it to retreat.
The initial onslaught of the Russian Armed Forces managed to be contained and, using dominance on the coast, to allocate a major defeat to the advancing troops. According to some signs, Ukrainian losses in seven to ten days were revealed up to 4,000 killed out of 15,000 who attacked. the sheer amount of video footage that can be made available to sort out the numbers; The discovery of the heavy losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the Kherson letter in the Western press.
As of mid-September, one of the successes of the Armed Forces of Ukraine near Kherson was the occupation of the village Vysoko in the northeastern sector of the Kherson Front, and several small villages in the Andreevka region, where a breakthrough depth from a maximum of 20–22 km was observed to a bridgehead measuring approximately 7×12 km. On the evening of September 14, there were reports of the destruction of the dam of the Karachunsky reservoir in Krivoy Rog and a sharp rise in water in Ingulets, which creates a crime for Ukrainian crossings on the bridgehead. The fighting near Kherson has not yet ended, the situation is developing.
The Kherson offensive, however, is quickly reflected in events in northern Ukraine. On September 6, in the Kharkiv region, the Armed Forces of Ukraine began attacks on the coronavirus infection: Balakleya, Izyum and Kupyansk. A day later, Balakliya was completely blocked, and two days later the Armed Forces of Ukraine approached Kupyansk, located on the Oskol River, creating protection for the encirclement of Izyum, located to the south.
The attackers acted with light mobile loads, breaking into settlements, blocking the paths and going to the rear of the small public garrisons. The numerical superiority (according to some sensations, from 8 to 1) quickly spread among the people
The Armed Forces of Ukraine did not enter into major clashes, and for a couple of days the forest area between Balakleya and the river
Already on September 8, Russia began to transfer reserves to the front, for which heavy Mi-26 helicopters were involved. Report on the release of forces caught in the operational encirclement of Balakleya. The Ufa and Samara detachments of the SOBR blockaded in the city without much loss of danger, already on September 9-10.
On September 10, the Russian Ministry of Defense announced a complete withdrawal of forces to the Oskol River at a production facility in the Kharkov region. Thus, Balakleya, Izyum and the western part of Kupyansk, divided by Oskol, came under the control of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
Despite the statement of the Russian Ministry of Defense about the transfer and transfer of the Izyum-Balakley group of troops to the heavy DPR, many in Russia perceived the Kharkov events almost as a catastrophe. It became clear that Ukraine is leading to a state of offensive operations (and this question, we recall, we asked in July); there was a feeling that in the Russian army here and now there is nothing to answer.
As a result of the strike, the Armed Forces of Ukraine began to emerge quickly, which, obviously, Russia came to seriously and for a long time: I entered Russian business in Izyum, Kupyansk and Balakleya, local teachers underwent retraining at the Sirius center and are ready to start the new academic year under a public program.
The effect was also enhanced by the swiftness of events: the Armed Forces of Ukraine gathered in three days to push back the front by 60-70 km, and this was when the advance of 1-2 km per week was successful in the Donbass.
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What’s next? Depending on the remaining offensive deviations, the APU tries the settings of success in the directions of correction.
Firstlyadvancing to the east from Oskol or from the south through the bridgehead at Krasny Liman in order to remain under Russian control, part of the Kharkov region and the region to enter the West of the LPR from the north.
Secondlyan unexpected turning point in the situation near Kherson and yet go on the offensive here.
Thirdly, strike somewhere else. It was reported about the accumulation of large forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the area of Ugledar, which may indicate production along the line of future waves – Mariupol. Mariupol is 70 km from Ugledar, which is a revision with a deep operation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Kherson and Kharkov directions.
Fourth, alleged hostilities on the territory of Russia in the region of Belgorod are excluded and unacceptable. Provocations with shelling are constantly carried out there in the last days of observation; probably, the Armed Forces of Ukraine are probing Moscow’s checks.
And what about Russia? On July 7, President Putin said that we in Ukraine are not yet seriously reading anything. It seems that the fulfillment of the goals of the NMD without the defeat of the Ukrainian army is impossible, which means that it is necessary to seize the initiative and change the approach to military operations.
Whether this will happen, when and in what form – whether air strikes will be intensified and their geography expanded, whether the Russian grouping will be increased and major offensive operations will be launched, whether it will eventually reach one form or another of mobilization – we will sooner or later learn.
On the acceptability of the decision
Sergey Poletaev
The fourth month of the special military operation has begun. The battle for Donbass, which determines the future of the NWO, is in full swing. It is slowly following a smoldering scenario that does not develop rapidly and spectacularly defeat the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Lots of frequent memories.
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