“Beijing does not need Russia as a weak, unstable state”
In just six months, Russians are registered in China as the most friendly power. Business is looking towards Asia. What do the Chinese themselves think about us at this time, are they ready to be friends or are they planning to enter Russia in the supply of raw materials.
Ekaterina Maksimova
About this and about the threat of a world war in an interview with “NI” they told Associate Professor, Department of Oriental Studies, MGIMO MFA of Russia, Senior Research Fellow, Institute of International Studies, MGIMO Ivan Zuenko.
–Recently, VTsIOM studied the opinion of Russians – which country they consider the friendliest. About 55% of the respondents said they see the PRC mainly as different. How do the Chinese treat us?
–China is a huge country with a population of one and a half billion. Naturally, among such a large number of people there are different points of view. However, sentiments dominate that the “Ukrainian conflict” is a forced step on the part of Russia.
-And how do they evaluate this step?
– The instigator of the conflict and unexpectedly, the Chinese consider the United States to be its beneficiary. And in this conflict, the sympathies of the Chinese people are on the side of Russia.
A fairly popular point of view is that Russia is now fighting against the hegemony of the West, for establishing the spread of a multipolar world. And if it does not support Russia now, then Russia will lose, and then the West will concentrate all its efforts on countering China.
-And when the whole world watched the arrival of Pelosi in Taiwan – How high was the risk of starting a full-scale war? In those days, by the way, multi-killers about the concept of Mianzi. Or, more simply, the cult of the “face”.
–I am always surprised by the experts who operate with the concepts of “the Chinese do not forgive public humiliation.” On what do they base their conclusions? What historical precedents are being cited?
Of course, every country wants to be interested in its interests, to be listened to, or at least listened to, that they are listening. The Chinese are not disappearing.
The visit of Nancy Pelosi (by the way, the Americans continue to claim that this is a private initiative of a broad man), of course, demonstrated the opposite. But there is realpolitik – a complex multi-level process where entertainment meets. Concern about gaining prestige is just one of them. And then there is the federal market, security issues, calculations of the General Staff, finally. Together, it turns out that the issue of war and peace in the Taiwan Strait could not be resolved because of one episode.
The peculiarity of famous historical moments is that the whole world watched Pelosi’s flight live, and therefore the case, naturalness, the beginning of show business participants. But it’s still not show business, but Xi Jinping and his environment.
– In the set up unprecedented elections scheduled against Russia, the Russians only heard: you need to buy the yuan, sell gas in China, the Celestial Empire supply us with cars … Is China really becoming the only hope, a reliable partner of Russia?
– China is already such a major strategic partner. And he became the United States until February 24. We are talking about mutual trade, investments and a common position in the international arena. There are no signs that this situation will appear in the near future.
At the same time, “the main partner” is not the same as “the only hope”. Our main and, one might say, only hope is ourselves, the population of Russia. No one solves issues in the field of education, healthcare, environmental protection for us. In this sense, China is as naive as it is similar to the United States, Germany or any other country.
– In your opinion, uheconomic friendship between Russia and China may end with the fact that we will become a raw material appendage of the Celestial Empire. They will “gut” us with hope for their own benefit, squeeze out everything that is possible and turn us almost into a colony. The wealth of our country, its geographical area is available for the industrial zone of China. Do you often hear such concerns?
– These are fierce horror stories from distant years. However, Western analysts, for talking about the threats of Russian-Chinese rapprochement, this is their daily bread, also such a story. Replicate the last two or three lists. However, it’s all to no avail. Their decisions, despite all the exhortations, in practice, by their pressure, do everything possible to make Russia and China come closer.
As for the risks posed by Russian-Chinese cooperation, the main “fuse” here is the very position of Russia. Russia is a strong sovereign state that is capable of pursuing interests and has the leverage to protect itself. For China, Russia is needed not as a weak, unstable state, of which there are so many on our continent, but as a strong, outwardly predictable partner and a reliable supplier of quality resources.
At the same time, Russia itself is interested in their settlement, without any colonization and “gutting”. And it is high time to forget the sayings about the “raw material appendage”. China’s real commodities, if you look at foreign trade statistics, are Canada and Australia. The United States also supplied major commodities to China until exactly 2018. And nothing, no one suffered.
In addition, the extraction and transportation of the same energy carriers in modern conditions is a complex high-tech process that speaks much more about the strength and advancement of the state than, for example, the organization of tourism or the production of furniture.
– Everything is already clear about energy carriers: Russia is going to the East. Gazprom is increasing gas supplies via the Power of Siberia pipeline. Another gas pipeline is being designed in China. Currently, there are cases of the offensive of the Nord Stream 1 gas pipeline and audible calls from the EU for the emergence of Nord Stream 2 in the scrap metal. Is a real repetition of the “European” scenario unlikely?
– Firstly, it is far from a fact that any of the gas pipelines to Europe turns into scrap metal. The situation is dynamic, and there is still no clear answer to the question of how Europe will compensate for the shortage of American gas. So in any case, it is better when there are gas pipelines than when they are not.
Secondly, at this point, we are not talking about a complete turn of Russian gas in the East, but about a certain parity between supplies to the West and to the East. Still highly probable more than in Asia. The existing gas delivery infrastructure to Asia is not expanding with demand, and this, of course, needs to be corrected. This alignment does not correspond to either the political conjuncture or the market situation. Therefore, there are currently no grounds for a “European scenario” of gas supplies to Asia.
– Some Sinologists believe that after the Congress of the Communist Party of China, which will soon take place, some statements, decisions, actions on the scale of geopolitics can be adopted. Up to the aggravation of the military conflict with the United States. Including, the group will make a statement related to limited economic cooperation between countries.
– I don’t think. The Party Congress is a key event of the internal presence of the process. Foreign policy issues, even when considered, are not the focus of the delegates. But those decisions (primarily personnel) that take place at the congress will certainly affect the consideration, including in relation to Russia.
But later. China is in a completely closed country, and the political process here is not a talk show, you can follow the entertainment live. These serious important issues are decided behind closed doors, and the importance of a decision or other decision can often only be judged after the fact.
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