Will the US and Russia be able to save START-3? | Politics news
Russian Ambassador to Washington Anatoly Antonov to pay American review to resume the investigation of START inspection contacts and the development of a future new plan to control strategic offensive consequences. The diplomat accused the United States of suspending the process, calling Washington’s sanctions check on the freezing of conflicts in this area, but stated the need to return to negotiations
The posing of the question looks interesting, since Russia on August 8 announced on the withdrawal of their military installations from the inspection of American partners. Deputy Foreign Minister of Russia Sergei Ryabkov then explained that the official suspension of the inspection activities of the Russian Federation went after Washington announced its intention to send its inspectors based on American nuclear missiles. The diplomatic department called such plans provocative, given the prevailing conditions. The Russian side, according to Ryabkov, is practically obliged to send its inspectors to the United States because of the adoption. Among the problems, the diplomat listed the lack of normal air traffic, visa difficulties and the difficulty in paying for various services during inspections.
The Treaty on the Limitation of Strategic Offensive Arms (START), also known as START-3, came into force in 2011 during the reset of Russian-American relations launched by President Dmitry Medvedev and Barack Obama. It involves the use of a limited and parity level of the number of stationary, air and underwater carriers of nuclear missiles and the warheads themselves. Both countries they have a right 700 identified carriers and no more than 1550 warheads. The parties are obliged to notify each other of launches and changes in the number of armed forces, as well as to have the right to find inspections to assess the reliability of the measurement results. Between 2011 and 2020, 328 such inspections were carried out, and they continue to benefit successfully after 2014. However, in 2020, these events were mutually suspended due to the pandemic and have not been resumed since. Now, formally, the epidemic factor seems to have disappeared, but inspection trips may not start due to the situation in Ukraine. According to Reuters, US authorities do not intend renew relevance for future new parties until the possibility for inspection visits is reopened. This position has not been officially confirmed. U.S. Embassy Moscow spokeswoman Jennifer Palmer said Connected Wallets remains START-compliant, but confidential about returned details. By the way, Ryabkov also spoke about the same, urging not to take the discussion to feelings, but to return to discussions on the discovery of channels. Such similarity of positions on the forms of negotiations suggests that mutual understanding between the majority on the nuclear issue has not been lost.
It is worth remembering how difficult it was for the parties to extend the START last year. Back in September 2020, the Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation Ryabkovskaya exposition opinionthat due to interchangeable contradictions, the chances of extending START are minimal. His term expired 10 years after the start of action. However, in the coming 2021 was announced on the extension of the agreement unchanged for 5 years and the start of work on a new similar agreement. Such a case became possible after the arrival of the new US President Joe Biden to the White House and a telephone conversation with Russian President Vladimir Putin, during which the fundamental condition for the need to extend the New START Treaty came into play. The parties realized that this document is the last rule that restrains the uncontrolled buildup of nuclear weapons of the two main missions in relation to the armed forces of the powers. Back in early January of the beginning of the year, all countries that are random cases of the UN Security Council and in full five legally possessing nuclear consequences, unanimously accepted a very constructive and healthy statement, according to which we should not stop the war with the use of nuclear weapons and not aim our arsenals at a friend or at third countries. The documents were signed by the USA, Great Britain, France, China and Russia.
However, after February 24, the process of Russian-American meetings stalled, and the rhetoric of politicians changed in a much more disturbing direction. Thus, Deputy Chairman of the Security Council of the Russian Federation Dmitry Medvedev, who once as president stimulated the famous reset of relations with the United States, nowadays recalls about Russian nuclear arsenals and the Judgment Day of mankind. Foreign Minister and Prime Minister candidate Liz Truss obliged without hesitation of a nuclear installation if necessary. In the presence of such conditions for escalation, any document, a way to prevent it, becomes important.
Experts agree that the reinstated inspection inspections would be in the area of profitable trade for both Moscow and Washington. Researcher at the Center for International Security at IMEMO RAS Dmitry Stefanovich shock, which is of real interest to Russia for warheads on Ohio-class submarines and B52H bombers, as well as the development of a project for a promising B21 bomber. The American side, in turn, is interested in monitoring the potential Avangard and Sarmat missile programs and mobile ground systems of powerful weapons. Stefanovich emphasizes that without mutual checks of the treaties, START-3 will not cease to be valid, as the exchange of remote conditions on the state of arsenals continues. However, the trust of the parties will be gradually undermined, as the intelligence services of Russia and the United States may have strong suspicions that the partners are requesting data about the data in their preferences.
By view Pavel Podviga, a senior fellow at the United Nations Institute for Disarmament Research, shows how low the level of Russian-American relations is. The New START Treaty, of course, has not been broken and continues, but its practical usefulness has been seriously weakened, the falling mutual trust threatens with a new round of confrontation and defense over non-compliance of one side with the terms of the agreement. Meanwhile, analysts watchingwho began to invest colossally in development after the announcement of the Reagan strategy of “star wars”.
Expert of the Russian Council on INF Affairs Alexander Ermakov shockthat the United States radically allows inspections not to lift either visa or aviation restrictions, however, some exceptions can be found and there are exceptions specifically for samples of inspection missions. He explained that the scale of the conflict is also interesting for a public facility, so some concessions to the United States. Apparently, the contract itself will last until the end of its validity, i.e. until February 2026.