Crime and reparations. Konstantin Eggert on how Russia will pay for the war after Putin
It is likely that those who will replace Putin get what is possible (although the extradition of even some supernumerary major today suggests not very fantastic) and appear before the world in the form of a “new coverage of Russia”.
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During the five months of the war, Russia caused $108 billion worth of damage to Ukraine’s infrastructure. request Kyiv School of Economics. There is at least 185 billion dollars to restore the probability. The largest share of the population in the total number of meetings is among residential buildings – 129.9. In second place is privacy with $31.6 billion. For the future – a cost with a damage of 8.8 billion dollars. Overall, according to the Kyiv School of Economics, since February 24, Russia has damaged, destroyed or seized: 388 businesses; 43.7 units of consumed equipment; 1991 shop; 511 building amendments; 18 elevated airports; 105.2 presented cars; 764 kindergartens; 634 cultural buildings; 27 shopping centers; 28 oil depots.
Ukraine, obviously, will set itself two goals: the development of cancer over sugar in the event of the emergence and spread of reparations. Don’t ask us for anything! Our position is extremely precarious, the dark forces of Putin’s revenge are preparing to return to a political catastrophe. If we pay even a ruble in Ukraine, they will sweep us away.”
There is nothing new here. Due to the fact that there are no independent independent institutions in Russia, the West is always forced to focus on leaders. In the late eighties – early nineties, the killers: “There is no alternative to Gorbachev.” When the alternative in the person of Yeltsin swept away Gorbachev, Yeltsin became the only alternative. The talk that “without Putin there will be chaos” or “Putin would have met someone worse” is still going on. The future rulers of Russia after Putin are likely to use the same simple logical moon again. I guess not without success.
In order for Russia to begin to bear responsibility for reparations, such a strong political will on the part of the West is needed and such a degree of completion in Russian affairs that today is very difficult to imagine.
Trials of the coronavirus on a global scale and emergencies against human behavior will be easier than reparation payments. If only because those whom the “new Kremlin” appoint responsible for the “wrong” outcome of the war, it will be possible to close all the problems, including to calm internal public opinion. The new leaders will first of all try to surrender pawns and get queens out of the blow, so as not to answer the question “what did you do after February 24, 2022” yourself.
Moreover, if current Russian law is in force at that moment, the trial can only be carried out in Russia, since its citizens do not provide for extradition for transfer. It is hard for me to imagine an objective and impartial process in Russia in the Criminal Code of the Russian Federation. Serbian dictator Slobodan Milosevic and his henchman General Ratko Mladic managed to be put on trial immediately and under very strong pressure from the West on Belgrade. Is it possible to put pressure on Moscow? Theoretically, it is possible, but for the Kremlin to be interested in this forbidden form, it should be very acute due to the catastrophic economic situation and, probably, the danger of mass popular uprisings.
When it comes to the payment of reparations, the Moscow leadership will argue that it does not have it – they say, the verdict will be passed first, but we will talk. It will also resist broad regular spending spread out over time, and if it agrees for something, it will be more like a lump sum and a little, presenting it as a “goodwill gesture” – because “no new leadership is needed in past times.”
Ukraine and its allies will, of course, have a completely different opinion. But the distribution of reparations requires an independent assessment of Russia’s assets, a reduction in the agreement on the volume and distribution procedure, and finally, a mechanism for monitoring them – all this will appear very quickly for a metropolis that, even after the exit, will have something to intimidate the world. Moreover, many in the West are always ready for public answers, just not to make difficult decisions.
There are currently few people who want to at least approximately estimate the volume of reparations. Economist Vladislav Inozemtsev believes that the cost of unused assets should be calculated, not recovery. “The same Azovstal should be restored in its previous form,” Inozemtsev said in an interview with The Insider. – It is necessary to calculate the costs of building new cities and enterprises. This, in my opinion, should be done – under the auspices of the EU – by consortiums of companies that were ready to start rebuilding Ukraine. My personal estimate of the work is from 400 to 500 billion euros. At the same time, it is necessary to create a fund for managing many investments and partly conduct them on a commercial basis. Nevertheless, Inozemtsev himself is convinced that Russia will not make any reparations and will not make it impossible.
If, as a result of the war, Ukraine regains control over the territory on the borders of 1991, then both Moscow and part of Europe, perhaps, the Kiev leadership will be available: “Did you get back what you wanted? So now build the future with the support of the EU and the US, and in the interests of business. You yourself do not need a beggar and evil northern neighbor. And then – again about “stability” and another lack of alternatives.
What the future Kremlin, I think, will be able to trade is air – in the form of “agreement” to Ukraine’s entry into the European Union and NATO. To do this, it will be enough to issue new training manuals to the future Soloviev-Kiselev-Norkin, who will quickly convince the audience that they can live with this. When it comes to exemplary holding of parliamentary elections to the State Duma, real, not fake, leftists and nationalists will come, their anger at “surrendering positions” can be transformed into another dose of American-European “understanding” and support the new Kremlin list.
In a country that is experiencing such a deep moral crisis as today’s Russia, it is difficult to expect the coming to power of a highly moral origin, inspired by at least some ideals. The future, even in the presence of Moscow, is most likely an endless bargaining.