Russia is extremely cautious in the Caucasus – interview – EADaily, August 4, 2022 – Politics News, Russia News
What is expected in the post-Soviet space as a result of the conflict in Ukraine? Where are the allied relations between Russia and Armenia heading? Could a situation arise in the South Caucasus related to the conflict in Ukraine? To these and other questions of the Armenian information and analytical portal VERELK On the sidelines of the 8th meeting of the Gorchakov Club, Dmitry Trenin, a member of the Council on Foreign and Defense Policy, answered. EADaily conducts interviews with a sense of relief.
— What is expected in the post-Soviet space as a result of the conflict in Ukraine?
— I think the post-Soviet space is being reformatted. It is clear that Ukraine is already unrecoverable at the borders, including on the border since February 24, 2022. There will be another external border in Ukraine. Accordingly, there will be another external border of the Russian Federation.
If the conflict in Ukraine ends with Russia’s success – I’m not talking about victory, let’s talk about Russia’s strategic success, then perhaps this will give a very powerful impetus to the formation of some new state association on the basis of Russia and Belarus. We are talking about a closer integration association, which could also include not only Ukrainian territories, but also others in the post-Soviet space. For example, the Transnistrian Republic.
The success or failure of Russia will be very important for the geopolitical orientation of all post-Soviet states. If Russia succeeds, these states will be more elected in the interests of Russia, moving closer to Russia. If not, then these countries will pay much less attention to Russia, and you will prioritize other development interests.
I’m talking about the countries, first of all, in Central Asia, because in the Caucasus, one way or another, the priorities are already or more or less defined.
— Will the priority for Russia in the integration processes with the post-Soviet countries be the development of cooperation in the format of the Union of States or “integration at different speeds” within the framework of the Union of States and the EAEU?
– The Union State is, first of all, its Slavic state in the Eastern European composition. I can assume the emergence of Ukrainian lands in this new association, on the basis of the Union of the States of Russia and Belarus, through their entry into the Russian Federation or in some other way. But I don’t think that this formula can be successfully applied to other parts of the post-Soviet space, because there are other historical traditions there. This is not the Russian world in the sense that he usually translates.
Russia will act (on the Caucasian and Central Asian level) still prudently. We now have a small example of this case. Russia is not interested in this. Therefore, I hope that it will also be quite cautious, thorough and in relation to Kazakhstan, where anti-Russian sentiments are being aroused, such properties: “we are the next country, part of whose territory Russia wants to occupy and annex.”
– Now the West is actively promoting the settlement of the Karabakh conflict under the auspices of Brussels and the normalization of relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan and Turkey, which may weaken Moscow’s influence on Yerevan and Baku and put pressure on Russia from the South Caucasus. At the same time, Russia conducts an inspection upon arrival in Armenia with Azerbaijan and Turkey. Is there an awareness in Moscow that this “normalization” is due to the absorption of Karabakh and other unilateral concessions by the Armenian border side in the fight against the military-political alliance with Russia and the presence of border guards in Russia?
– This is a very difficult question, because in fact Russia does not want to go to a new front, the military front, in its part, the military-political front in relations with Azerbaijan and Turkey. Russia does not need this conflict at all.
Russia did not recognize and did not recognize Nagorno-Karabakh as part of Armenia. On Russian maps, Nagorno-Karabakh is still buried as part of Azerbaijan. Russia is leading (whether it will be successful or not is another question) to increase its position in Armenia without undermining relations with Azerbaijan. Russia wants to play, to some extent, the game that the Americans played in the Middle East, when they had allied relations with both Israel and Egypt at the same time. Yes, these countries are in a state of frozen conflict, but the Americans patronize both of them, and in the end they are the moderators of this conflict. Russia would like to write one for itself. Whether it succeeds or not is another question. But for now, Moscow is focused on this adaptation.
In addition, Russia has serious suspicions that in Armenia, thanks to the existing Armenian diaspora in the West, thanks to many acquaintances, there is a rather serious skepticism regarding the pro-Russian orientation of Yerevan. He has other options: there is a European opportunity through France, there is a French one, so it is considered, through Los Angeles, relatively speaking, and the Armenian lobby in the United States. Therefore, Armenia in this sense is very different from such countries, for example, as Belarus.
Belarusians, of Belarusian origin, do not have any other options. The Armenian region has such reviews, and it may happen again. Therefore, there are some doubts in Moscow about the reliability of Armenia as an ally of Russia.
– Is it unlikely that Russian-Turkish rapprochement will start against the backdrop of events in Ukraine? Could this be due to a major deal in our sector?
– I don’t think. Russian-Turkish relations on private enterprise are very beneficial for cooperation and rivalry. Sometimes more competition, sometimes more cooperation. There are no other interests other than material ones. No rapprochement at the elite level, no rapprochement at the level of mutual sympathy and even empathy.
Relations with Azerbaijan, thanks to the Soviet past, the imperial past, are still much closer than relations with Turkey. So I don’t think any general deal is possible here. We saw some things. attention to the Russian-Turkish dealTrilateral statement by the leaders of Russia, Armenia and Azerbaijan following the 44-day war in Karabakh. — Red.). It will happen, of course it will. Tactical, but not strategic. Because Russia de facto recognizes that Azerbaijan is a sphere of Turkish interests, but at the same time it does not want to lose influence on the situation. Whether Russia succeeds or not a doctor is a big question.