Why Russia does not turn off the gas valve for Europe
On July 21, the seventh package of anti-Russian restrictions began to operate, which has already been dubbed “six-and-a-half” due to the fact that food and harm have been removed from the bans. Sanctions are sanctions, but somehow you need to feed the people.
And on the same day, Germany resumed receiving gas through Nord Stream, a gas pipeline that hides higher requirements for the export of blue fuel to Russia. And, by the way, gas prices in Europe have crept down. As the Kremlin spokesman could say Dmitry Peskovwhen they said that
“Russia has a significant absence of the sky-high bills for electricity, heat and so on that taxpayers in European countries currently receive.”
Europe still puts spokes in the wheels. The question is to whom?
Now SP-1 operates at a third of its capacity. And, if there were no shouting from the high European podium, Gazprom is not to blame for this. The interior is not fractional, but purely technical.
According to the leading specialist of the FNEB Igor Yushkov, the problem with the turbine stuck in Canada has not yet been resolved:
- although there is permission to return her to Russia, and she has even been delivered by plane to Germany, she is not taken further (route: by ferry to Finland, then by land in Russian Vyborg).
By and large, even if there are no more delays, then put the department’s turbine into operation, at the earliest, in early August. Will it withstand the two turbines that are working now? So how do they need repairs and maintenance?
And what will Europe do when the capacity of the gas pipeline decreases even more? New powers in management? Will they again accuse Russia of using gas as a weapon and an instrument of pressure?
What kind of “gas quest” is this, in which one game side makes incomprehensible and obviously toothless decisions, and the other, in spite of everything, continues to supply the first vital resource?
Why does Russia continue to supply gas?
As explained in an interview with Pravda.Ru, Deputy Director for the Energy Natural Institute of Energy and Finance Alexey BelogorievRussian gas deliveries in the future continue on the offer of benefit, without offering policy.
Reason 1 – economic
— The fact is that this is still a large profitable, most marginal, bringing the greatest profit, article. The domestic market, other export directions – China, Japan – with a significant decrease in profits for both gas companies and the state budget than supplies to Europe. And, from a financial point of view, there is nothing to accommodate these deliveries.
They pay as much for gas as Europeans pay, none of our other importing countries is ready, and prices on our market are found to be artificially low.
Therefore, in turn, it may affect the growth of users, because the statistics, if confirmed by Gazprom, there is a redistribution of profits between export deliveries in the domestic market.
That is, Gazprom regulates the domestic market, including the construction and use of networks, the huge Russian gas transportation system operates. And all this at the expense of European windfall profits.
It turns out that it is absolutely unprofitable for Russia to refuse exports to Europe or reduce them.
Reason 2 – legal
– Gazprom, associated with a number of major contracts that are binding for side effects. There is a principle – “take or pay”. That is, the consumer must take gas either for it, while Gazprom must supply this gas.
If Gazprom does not fulfill the contracts, then the consumer has every reason to apply to the Stockholm Arbitration. And Gazprom has very high risks violated by a multi-billion dollar fine.
How long?
— What is the forecast for this “gas quest”? What, in the end, ends this political show?
– It is very difficult to predict, because everything that happens does not happen for economic reasons, which can somehow be analyzed. This is a game with their participation on the side, sometimes in the end also “from the side” – Canada, the USA.
Perhaps so, we see, at least, the possible readiness of the country for the full consumption of Russian gas consumption, even at the maximum consumption in the season. Actually, the plan to save gas to limit winter, which has recently been published by the European Commission, which implies a 15% reduction in gas consumption from August 1 to March 31, 2023, is precisely aimed at protecting the EU countries from the possibility of achieving gas flow restrictions From Russia.
That is, the Europeans are preparing for this, although this does not cause any concern, frankly speaking, optimism in Europe.
This, in any case, is extremely negative for the economic scenario, but there are no requirements for it.
“Gazprom”, in turn, also, despite the sharp, sharp, decrease in the deficit, compared with last year, confirms that he is faced with his steadily and not so dangerous problems. And due to the fact that fears are expected in Europe that Russia can shut down gas for a wide range of reasons, and is preparing for this.
In general, politics will probably have the last word.