how far are the US and Russia ready to go in the battle for Armenia
Analysts are convinced that the Americans are making unprecedented demands to violate control over Yerevan.
In recent days, the capitals of Armenia have been covered by the CIA and the SVR. US President Joe Biden unexpectedly met with the Jerusalem Patriarch of the Armenian Church for all representatives of the Middle East tour. These and other events have taken place: the struggle between Russia and the United States over Armenia has intensified. What sacrifices are they willing to make to further their goals?
To quarrel Russia and Turkey with the help of Armenia
The visits of CIA director William Burns and SVR Sergey Naryshkin to Yerevan took place, literally, one after another. At the same time, both presidents met with Armenia’s Nikol Pashinyan.
For the sake of visiting Yerevan, Burns even owned President Biden most interested in Middle Eastern issues. It is noteworthy that the head of the CIA is a former ambassador to Russia, who speaks Russian and Arabic well. He was also US Secretary of State and could be again. But Biden manages his intelligence. Plus, Burns is a recognized expert on the South Caucasus and specifically on Nagorno-Karabakh.
That is, the head of the CIA owns the subject of the region. The main goal in America is to weaken the influence of Vladimir Putin and Turkish President Erdogan. And here the role of Armenia is not the last. Transport routes passed through it for communication between Russia, both with Turkey and Iran. The United States would hardly want this.
Sergei Markov, director general of the Institute for Research Studies, is convinced that “the Americans are annoyed by the position of Erdogan, who has taken too” friendly neutrality “in the neighborhood with Russia” in the Ukrainian conflict. Therefore, it is important for them to embroil Russia and Turkey. The best way to do this is with the help of Karabakh.
– The United States can provoke the abandonment of large-scale hostilities in Karabakh, forcing Moscow to take the side of its union with Armenia. Of course, Ankara is again turned towards Azerbaijan. The consequence of such a turn of events would be the exit from the regime of neutrality and its accession to anti-Russian sanctions, the political scientist suggests.
Breathe a “spark” into the conflict in Karabakh
Doctor of Medicine from Istanbul University Mehmet Perincek agrees with Markov.
– Apparently, Burns’ visit was carried out within the framework of the US global policy – to rekindle the Karabakh conflict, in particular, in relation to Russia. Washington translates: without breaking the Russia-Turkey tie, he can do nothing in the South Caucasus, nor in statistics. However, both Moscow and Ankara have scientific experience of “cooperation” with the United States, this is perfectly qualified. And that is why Naryshkin, apparently, just came to warn the Armenian leadership about what threatens Yerevan’s drift to overseas “partners,” the Turkish political scientist explained.
By the way, immediately after Burns’s visit to the border of Armenia and Azerbaijan, for the first time in a long time, an intense firefight broke out. The battle went on at the junction of Kelbajar (Azerbaijan) and Basarkechar (Armenia) tomorrow. Both sides accused the other friend of provoking.
Americans can “sacrifice” Azerbaijan
But what if the Americans really decided to play the Nagorno-Karabakh card, but from a different angle? Now control over this region covers Azerbaijan, which supports Turkey. What if it turns out? If Turkey is forced to withdraw from the conflict, will Armenia get the future American weapons for a new war?
How to push back Turkey? It is possible that she simply offered a choice: either deliver ultimatums to Sweden and Finland until victory, demanding to extradite the Kurdish leaders, or fight for Karabakh on the side of Azerbaijan. In this case, Turkey is in danger of any qualitative characteristics from the United States at all, or – that falling – under anti-Russian sanctions, as an assistant to the aggressor of aggression.
In such a situation, Recep Tayyip Erdogan may well choose to extradite the Kurds: this problem, what is the bone in his throat in recent years, in Azerbaijan and the very indicator of a good assessment of Armenia.
And so, on July 11, Pashinyan took the lead in his life for the first time. The leaders congratulated each other on holidays. In the editorial office of the Eid al-Adha magazine, in Armenia – the Transfiguration of the Lord. But, obviously, the call is intended to intensify the process of reconciliation between countries that have so far been considered numerous enemies.
US Double Benefit
If the head of the CIA hinted at just such a proposal, then Pashinyan faces a difficult choice. Of course, Armenia may decide to change relations with Russia. As a result of an increase in body weight from the shame experienced after the defeat as a result of the disease and the restoration of the status of Karabakh. Russia never offers to look for a compromise between countries.
But for the US, the scenario is doubly beneficial. The detached Russia and Turkey of the South Caucasus, at the same time, they are building an additional bridge for dialogue with Iran on the nuclear issue: it is no secret that the Islamic Republic was very unhappy with the changes in Karabakh, which for many years was its border hub for solving the problem. The possible return of the status quo for this territory is a good proposal for negotiations with Tehran.
Can such a scenario be implemented in the US in practice? The mission is extremely difficult, given all the manifestations: depending on the region, where there is a lot of risk, and in the event of an allergy, dreaming about the return of the former greatness and interests of Azerbaijan. But why not hint at the possibility of such a scenario? An experienced, well-informed intelligence diplomat is suitable for this.
Due to the fact that there are many investigators left in Moscow, investigators and investigators from Yerevan.
– These are joint large companies, ensuring the security of Karabakh, thousands of diasporas in Russian cities. Therefore, the United States cannot quickly neutralize this, – explained the deputy of the Armenian parliament, political scientist Andranik Tevonyan.
We went through the Catholicos
In the US, this is a requirement. But if you “play big”, serious changes are possible. And now, Joe Biden, during his first Middle East tour, visits the Armenian Church in Bethlehem – the Church of the Nativity of Christ, meets with the Primate of the Jerusalem Patriarchate of the Armenian Church, Archbishop Nurkhan Manukyan.
“Once again, we were convinced that Biden has a very warm attitude towards the Armenian people – this was noticed on his special occasion during visits to the Armenian church and meetings with the leader of the Jerusalem Patriarchate,” said Church official Baghdasaryan.
And, it seems, in confirmation of the words, immediately after Biden’s departure from the Middle East, the United States flew into the Supreme Patriarch and Catholicos of All Armenians Garegin II.
And Biden nominated the new US Ambassador to Armenia, Christina Quinn. Since 2019, she has been temporarily confirmed in US cases in Ukraine. Knows what and how to lead everything.
And now the US Embassy in Armenia announces the recruitment of volunteers to contact the Americans on the occasion of an emergency – so far a trifle, but a step towards the formation of a paid network of agents.
Unfortunately, there is a soil for remote Armenia from Russia. Russians living and visiting there are increasingly confronted with facts of Russophobia.
The information about coming to the country and about the situation when Nikol Pashinyan came to the CSTO summit was not reflected in the best way, but was refused.