Russia will win in Ukraine. But the main thing is different
https://inosmi.ru/20220715/konflikt-255030647.html
Russia will win in Ukraine. But the main thing is different
Russia will win in Ukraine. But the main thing is different
Russia will win in Ukraine. But the main thing is different
Russia has military-technical superiority over Ukraine, and it is slowly but surely winning, political scientist Valentin Vatsev said in an interview with Trud. However… | 07/15/2022, InoSMI
2022-07-15T00:12
2022-07-15T00:12
2022-07-15T00:12
Russia
Ukraine
Bulgaria
NATO
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Todor TokinWhat will be the consequences of the expulsion of 70 Russian diplomats? Has the war intensified in Ukraine, and how will it be conducted? How is this noticeable on the political elites in the US and Russia? Valentin Vatsev: How would you comment on the scandal with the expulsion of 70 Russian diplomats? Most of all, British intelligence is observed on Bulgarian lands – it appeared here even before the Liberation. Then Russian intelligence was launched here deeply. In Bulgaria, spies of all stripes and calibers jump like hares in a forest clearing – American, French, German, not to mention Turkish and Greek, and of course Israeli – there is nothing interesting for them in Bulgaria, but they must report. Such a large number of spies in a square metric Bulgarian territory says only one thing – Bulgaria is available. But I don’t think that the unsubstantiated expulsion of 70 Russian spies will somehow seriously change the deal. As long as Bulgarian counterintelligence detects only Russian spies, no one will take them seriously. The meaning of the situation is quite different. The clique of Kiril Petkov and Asen Vasilev died in national betrayal, lifting the veto on North Macedonia’s accession to the EU. In other countries, people are arrested for such actions, and some are dismissed by court order. Such a quick case in Bulgaria, but at some point, one of the consultants of this clique recorded a second scandal. Crisis PR specialists know that the public cannot face negative consequences on various issues. The Bulgarian society revealed an idiotic, absolutely delusional scandal, it fell for this “scandal without worms” and, of course, the Bulgarians got angry. The true meaning of this PR crisis is that from the special attention of special treason and national betrayal – the public was given another languid rubber bone to be torn to pieces. The reason for being angry was changed. Of course, this extract may have, and already has, important consequences. The break in relations with Russia is the need to include the Bulgarian agreement in an open war against the fall of Russia. No, it is correct to say “Bulgaria entered the list of unfriendly countries.” An important nuance, this does not mean declaring the country unprofitable. Another question is that the leadership of Russian diplomacy uses this to show that Bulgaria is not particularly dear to them. Bulgarian-Russian relations have already approached the realization of a minimum. – The conflict in Ukraine is dragging on, do you think the end is in sight? – No. The end of the second stage is visible – the completion of the liberation of Donbass. Then there will be an operational pause, which has already begun, there was a shootout. The fighting continues into next month as Russia’s military-political leadership decides what the next target will be. One of two things is possible: the first is the capture of Kharkov, the second is the capture of Nikolaev and Odessa. I think the second one is more likely. I expect that in September-October, but not after November, when the fateful elections will be held in the US, Russia will find itself in open war with NATO. There are three possible options. First, in Lithuania, which isolates Kaliningrad. Secondly, if the Polish government sends several thousand of its volunteers to the next, the likelihood of opening a war between Russia and NATO. Thirdly, if Ukraine enters Transnistria, and Romania takes measures against Moldova. De facto, even now there is a war between Russia and NATO, but a formal reason is needed for participation in the war of the Alliance. – I do not believe that it will come to this. What do you expect after the November 8 US midterm elections? in Russia. The US is on track to ensure that the more weapons given to Ukraine, and the more it is instructed, funded and armed, the easier it will be for the Democrats to win the Nov. 8 election. In my opinion, this is not true, and a group of realists in the White House close to the president and in the National Security Council believe that American attention should rather be directed to another important hot spot – Taiwan. It is very likely that China will take action against Taiwan in the fall, as a very important event is taking place in Beijing, which the CCP is covering, will force Xi Jinping to leave his post. He can resolve this issue with modern action on Taiwan. The other part of the political elite, currently in power, continues to think that the more crimes they have in Ukraine, the easier it will be to defeat Russia. technical superiority over Ukraine and she is slowly but surely winning. She certainly can win, but the real problem is that the Russian state is not politically ready to bear the burden of this victory. 80% of Russian society discovers Russia’s actions in Ukraine, in Putin’s inner circle and a small politburo. But the entire remaining administrative, cultural and intellectual elite – and in Russia it is huge, since there are 15-16 levels of power – keeps a fist in their pocket. Russia will win the war, but it is not known if she will be able to keep the peace after that. So the balance of power in Russia is not so simple. Putin has a lot to talk about, and his problem is not so big in Ukraine, but in the Kremlin and around the Kremlin, in the regions of the federation. Russia is politically unprepared to accept a possible victory.
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Russia
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