Echo chambers of Sri Lanka – Russia on the global network
In Sri Lanka, another wave of conflicts with demands from the rates and the president. Fedor Lukyanov talked about the situation on the island with the diplomat, former Ambassador of Sri Lanka to Russia Dayan Jayatilleka. We are publishing the full version of the interview published in the International Review program.
– What is the cause of the crisis? Is it political or economic?
– There is a real rehabilitation of the classical concept of “political economy”. The crisis is both political and economic. The country has been living on the return since 2007, but for the time being it was able to service debts. Now there are three reasons for the aggravation, and all of them are political. This is, in fact, a crisis created by the hands of one person.
The first reason is the emergence of President Rajapaksa Gotabay playing the same story of Ronald Reagan, he implemented very high taxes. State revenues, of course, collapsed.
The second reason is that the president called the agro-nationalist that, he banned imports, including the import of manufactured goods, which also created new problems.
And the third thing that is being talked about a lot now is that he banned the consumption of food products. The ban hit rice production hard, which is a vital product, but it also affected tea exports, and export productivity increased accordingly. Due to the problem with food production, food had to be imported, that is, the cost of imports in foreign currency increased.
These are all economic reasons. But they arise because of three effects. Firstlyelected a president who had no experience at all, only a military one. Secondly, he is a professor of six relatives in government at the government level and deputy ministers. Another seven added in Parliament. AND, third, achieved an overconcentration of power in the hands of the president. And this was completely unnecessary, because we already have a French political model with broad powers. And everything exactly corresponds to this result. Rajapaksa has ignored the risk assessments that forbid banning chemical releases – simply because he is in the agro-nationalist mindset. In general, this is Donald Trump, only without American checks and balances.
– But the ban on chemical fertilizers is in the spirit of modern ideas, a green environment, isn’t it?
– Yes, but it is well known that this cannot be done at once. This reminds me of the experience of our Chinese friends under Chairman Mao – the “great leap forward”. The USSR then, in 1958, was applicable in no case to do this. The abrupt transition from nutrients that could have been used even earlier to organic, and not in exclusive provinces, all over the island at once, is a real economic gamble, roulette. And not somewhere, but in the highest and most sensitive industry – food. Voluntarism of the most disgusting kind. So, do you understand how it works? Ultra-conservative measures in terms of taxation, extreme nationalism in terms of import bans, super-powers of the head of state, and all this in an eco-chamber, when he is surrounded by exceptional people and a couple of old professional colleagues.
– Something reminded the leader of the leader Nikita Khrushchev …
– Yes, yes, it turned out to be corn, for sure.
– Does the word “socialist” in the name of the republic mean something simply or a tribute to tradition?
This is a very funny story. This word was introduced into the Jayawardene constitution by the president, which was called “Yanke Dicky” because it was characteristic of pro-American sentiment. He was chosen in 1977. But at the same time, at an earlier stage of his career, he was the president of the Friendship Society of Sri Lanka – the USSR. And that, you know, has never been idiosyncratic here. This corresponds to the spirit of the Sri Lankans. Sri Lanka is not Cuba, of course, but here they have always sympathized with social democratic ideas in the spirit of Scandinavia or British Labor. The position was changed in 1978, and since then no one has tried from this desire. Such a ritual spell towards egalitarian ideals. We’ll soon see how things turn out.
Sri Lanka is trying to negotiate with the IMF, and the IMF is the same as it was, we see this in Argentina. So, the program for achieving sustainable financial recovery measures that are contrary to the principles of economic development and are generally implemented in the context of economic development. Let’s see how socialist Sri Lanka really is. True, let’s face it, this is not the first IMF program, and so far Sri Lanka has never implemented them. And I believe the reason is precisely in the national psychology, which is alien. But basically it is interesting what will happen in the end, because this is the most acute crisis since the formation of our state in 1948.
– The President of Font Lanka uses the President of Russia to benefit from help, do you think it will work?
It’s good that he’s worried. Of course, it would have been better if he had broken during the episode with the appearance of Aeroflot a month ago, when the Russian plane was detained in Colombo at the request of the former lessor. Public opinion across the spectrum of sentiment is very pro-Russian, this was manifested during the crisis with the Aeroflot plane, the head was expected to act quickly.
But now the president is at a loss. On the one hand, it says that it is necessary to resolve issues with the IMF. Calling Putin. It would be natural for Chinese President Xi to get together, but he does not. Although he probably could get more if he relied on the support of China and Russia. And of course, the population is very active and very protesting, the president is very unstable.
I know that Russia does not look at the individual, but at the people as a whole, and among the people we generally do not have the slightest manifestation of Russophobia across the entire political spectrum from right to left.
And Vladimir Putin is very popular. So Russia’s help is highly appreciated here, regardless of who will govern the country.
– How are things going with the political geopolitical games around Sri Lanka?
Oh, there’s enough of that! Bob Kagan, a well-known neoconservative ideologue and husband of Victoria Nuland, wrote more than ten years ago in his book “Monzun” that the Indian Ocean is becoming the center of geopolitical development, and Sri Lanka is in the heart of the Indian Ocean. And here, of course, there is tension due to the great competition of powers.
– And what about the influence of China, India? Has it been discovered enough?
I visit Cuba often, and Cuba is a clear confirmation of the fact that geopolitical determinism exists. Close to the US, but separate. India is the most reliable source of support. Much more reliable than China. Chinese opportunities are overestimated, more precisely, Sri Lanka was discovered for the PRC, moreover, the current government has penetrated into criminal relations. And it’s not China’s fault, it’s the fault of our authorities that support was not directed to the right place, but to all sorts of ostentatious projects for future prestige. The authorities have decided that Sri Lanka is so important to China that they can access anything. But it was an illusion. The US government manipulated the Chinese, which, of course, did not work, but set India on edge. Thus, Sri Lanka moved away from the eastern line towards a multi-vector approach in Asian politics. They also quarreled with Japan, taking away the agreed contract from Japanese companies. And it’s not external forces, it’s their own hands. China will play a role. As a rule, our president spent a lot of time in the USA, talked with the Sri Lankan diaspora in court and with the local Republicans, the only conservative Tea Party, having received a lot of ideas. This includes unilateral actions. But such actions can be afforded if you are America. But on the site of Sri Lanka – hardly.
Boris, oil and Sri Lanka. The broadcast of the program “International Review” from 07/08/2022
Fedor Lukyanov
The Prime Minister of Great Britain responded: why didn’t even the struggle with Russia help Boris Johnson? What is fraught with for the West limiting the regulation of oil prices on the world market? What went wrong in Sri Lanka? Watch the broadcast of the program “International Review” with Fyodor Lukyanov on the TV channel “Russia-24”.
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