Kazakhstan-Russia: fact-checking against the ″trade war″ | Events in the world – estimates and forecasts in Germany and Europe | DV
In general, the recent statement by President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev about the unwillingness of the official Nur-Sultan to recognize the independence of quasi-state entities in Luhansk and Donetsk was generally positively received, but the subsequent reports from the Russian media about the upcoming trade in connection with the RFli caused by the coronavirus.
Information began to appear on Saturday, June 18, among Russian publications and telegram channels. From this message that under the pretext search for mines of World War II in the Black Sea Russia has imposed restrictions on the export of Kazakh oil through the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) through the terminal in Novorossiysk. The emergence of a message about the blocking of Kazakh transit immediately 1700 about the detention of Russian Railways wagons with coal in response to oil exports. A version arose that a trade war had begun between Kazakhstan and Russia because the Kremlin did not like the very speech of the Kazakh president for the “DPR” / “LPR” in the foreign economic arena in St. Petersburg.
President of Kazakhstan Kassym-Jomart Tokayev at SPIEF
Government officials against trade war
This interpretation caused surprise in Kazakhstan among the population of the country and among government officials. After all, on June 15, Minister of Energy Bolat Akchulakov explained on the air of the Atameken Business TV channel CPC press release on scheduled preventive maintenance in the water area of the Novorossiysk port from 15 to 25 June. “Unfortunately, since the Second World War, everything has been cleared of mines. And when underwater work begins, part of the pipeline passes along the bottom, they can be carried out only after an emergency occurs, related to the day observed after the Second World War,” Akchulakov said. , whose comment was posted in the media again on June 18.
On Monday, June 20, the press service of the Ministry of Industry and Infrastructure Development of Kazakhstan responded to reports in the Russian media. In her press release, there was a message about the detention of 1,700 wagons of shared coal – this is a “deliberate release aimed at discrediting the good neighborly relations between the two countries.” The message of the ministry was also confirmed by the Kazakh railway company Kazakhstan Temir Zholy, stating that “there are no 1,700 wagons with carbon fibers on the territory of Kazakhstan. There are also no wagons with coal on the tracks of Russian Railways, which are part of Kazakhstan or from the Republic of Kazakhstan.”
Real interests of Russia and Kazakhstan
In turn, Kazakh experts, in an interview with DW, questioned the possibility of a trade war between Russia and Kazakhstan. From the point of view of the Majilis deputy from the ruling party “Amanat” (Nur-Otan) Kanat Nurov, despite the dependence of Kazakhstan on Russia – almost all exports of Kazakhstani oil and gas to Europe go through the Russian market – a trade war, as well as the introduction of any meetings of Moscow against the Republic of Kazakhstan, unlikely events. “We really observe geopolitical partners and strict allies with the Russian Federation. We not only observe neutrality, but are directly ordinary CSTO and the EAEU. Therefore, any information flows on this matter are absolutely useless,” Kazakh parliament member Kanat Nurov said in a conversation with DW.
Nurov’s colleague in the parliamentary faction, political scientist Aidos Sarym, noted in his comments that what is happening after Tokayev’s speech in St. Petersburg does not take into account the close relationship between the economies of the capture countries. “We must be able to recognize the obvious facts. In the end, it is counterproductive,” the political scientist shared his opinion with DW. At the same time, he strengthened the hope that a sound state political class in Russia, which makes decisions aimed at identifying risk factors and business in countries.
Kazakhstan should “consider all options”
At the same time, Aidos Sarym acknowledged that Kazakhstan is currently looking for an alternative to the Russian world for importing and exporting goods to world markets. In many cases, this is due to the trips of President Tokaev to Iran and Qatar, which he disappeared immediately after his trip to St. Petersburg. “This is a life program. a hyperactive decade is expected in foreign policy,” the deputy of the Mazhilis believes.
The opinion of the financier Rasul Rysmambetov differs from the point of view of the parliament deputies. In a conversation with DW, he noted that the war in Ukraine, thanks to the corporate strategy of Western companies, Russia was the main trading partner of Kazakhstan. “But now the situation has changed. Western corporations have either ceased their activities in Russia. This was reflected and concerned Kazakhstan. As for the EAEU, it never worked if there were disagreements between the situations considered, which is still unlikely, then there is nothing wrong with that “, Rysmambetov said.
The Kazakh financier believes that the problems of Russia and Belarus in open access with the West, although painful for Kazakhstan, ultimately go to the use of its economy. “In my opinion, the more restrictions the Kremlin imposes, for example, on special raw materials, the better for us, because it belongs to us. All the time I enjoyed the lack of fruit – everything went to the West and Russia,” narrow Rysmambetov, allowing an increase in the number illogical elections of the Kremlin after the words of Kassym-Zhomart Tokayev, which were not the most pleasant for Moscow.
Meanwhile, speaking on June 21 at the economic meeting in Doha, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev noted that friendly relations had developed between him and Putin. “Putin is still a permanent ally. relations with the USA.
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