How can we “counter-put” the ruble, or why is Russia getting rid of the currency?. reedus
On Tuesday, the dollar exchange rate on the Moscow Exchange fell below 55 rubles, the euro level lost almost 2% of its value, as a result, the single European currency fell to 57.8 rubles.
According to analysts, the Russian currency is rising against the dollar and the euro due to expected tax revenues, as well as high prices in the commodity markets. In the current situation, Russian exporters sell foreign currency to pay taxes at the end of June.
We do not need a strong ruble?
A little earlier, First Deputy Prime Minister of the Russian Federation Andrei Belousov shared his commitment to the continued strengthening of the ruble and his vision of the importance of the exchange rate.
In his opinion, revealed the presence of sufficient stability of the exchange rate in the current environment, almost does not work. As Belousov said in an interview with Interfax, the government and the Central Bank need to rethink the assessments of indicators in recent years. According to the financial official, they need to put at the forefront of growth, for which the ruble of the exchange rate is important and important. He also said that a possible transition to targeting the ruble in finance is not a solution.
According to the official representative, the course for assessing the economy is estimated at 70-80 rubles by consensus, and it is necessary to return to it as soon as possible.
“Such a discussion is already underway both at the expert level and in government structures,” he answered the question of whether the discussion on revising the approach to monetary verification, including such a radical step as the transition to ruble targeting, rather than position.
Is it necessary to depreciate the ruble?
According to the director for the analysis of financial markets and macroeconomics of Alfa Capital Management Company Vladimir Bragin, it is not clear why it is necessary to return the exchange rate to 70-80 rubles, as Belousov suggests. According to the expert, this will not do without consequences, among which there is additional inflationary pressure, which will prevent the change in indicators, the rise in the cost of imports of goods and components. Therefore, he believes, this raises to the level of problems for the restoration of production chains and the weakening of the confidence of business and the population.
“The only goal for which the government needs to work on weakening the ruble at the present time is to increase tax revenues from the MET and export duties. But it looks somehow strange, taking into account all the changed events. In addition, the budget has been built as a way to redistribute the added dynamics of economic growth, and the economy itself continues to work and has not particularly sank, that is, mechanisms for increasing the budget without increasing the growth of ruble income, ”Vladimir Bragin explained to Ridus.
The second one, according to the opinion, is how the ruble is to be weakened. “Hypothetically, there may be a different combination of options: a sharp increase in imports, purchases of foreign currency in the reserves of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, stimulation of foreign exchange investments and savings of the population, and a decrease in exports. Of these, export is the most realistic and feasible, but how this is combined with the purpose of tax shipments is a question,” the expert believes.