Birth rate in Russia as a result of falling to the figures of 1943-1944
At the beginning of 2022, the smallest number of people born in Russia since 1943-1944, declared demographer Aleksey Raksha in an interview with Nestka.Media. If we talk about peacetime, then this is a record figure since the end of the 18th century.
On the statistics of the occurrence of a pandemic disease. In Europe, according to Raksha, the number of newborns has also been observed since January 2022. Depending on the growth of income and the growth of uncertainty.
In the next couple of years, according to the demographer, the birth rate in Russia may collapse by another 10% and become the most legal in the last 250 years.
At the same time, Russian statistics do not mention the latest events in Ukraine, Oleksiy Rashka believes. “The war was observed on the demographic data only when it is total and goes through the territory of the country,” he says in an interview.
The media, which report that in some regions, such as Buryatia, Dagestan, Udmurtia, almost every second among conscripts dies, according to Rakshi, errors occur in the calculations.
“Even if we double or triple the data on the dead that relate to Mediazon or People of Baikal (142 and 190 people, respectively), it turns out about 15-20% of the recruits. And not close.”
However, the development of Raksha, it is difficult to accurately judge these data, since Rosstat age does not take into account the statistics of the number of deaths by sex and by one-year groups.
Problems in calculations and in the analysis of data on migrants. it is impossible to establish the exact number of those who moved from Russia, since most often people are not transferred with the transfer of on-line registration, the customs services count the total number of those who left the country, including those who sent on vacation.
Approximate statistics that out of 3 million 900 thousand Russians who left the country in recent months, only 15% remained outside it.
In addition, Raksha draws attention to the fact that the distribution of Russian passports is subject to the Donbass and other occupied territories of Ukraine and does not affect the demographic statistics of Russia in any way. Since it was visited only by people living in the territory of constantly controlled months or registered here at a permanent place of residence.