Prospects for Combating Kremlin Aggression in Ukraine
Throughout the almost 100 days of the war that Russia is waging against Ukraine, Western countries are trying to persuade China to condemn Russian aggression. China shows itself quite the opposite: not only does it not condemn a serious danger, but it also helps in the international arena – at a minimum, taking into account the needs, as a maximum – turning out to be for the average Russian market by selling its raw materials and food sources, and sometimes by reducing the level of consumption of its resources around the world. army of the aggressor country.
At the same time, if earlier in the United States there were loud voices of those experts why the West should better prepare for confrontation with the enemy, now these voices have become somewhat quieter, and it has become better to hear those who prevent the Moscow-Beijing axis.
This, in particular, was discussed by a professor at the Diplomatic School of Georgetown University Evan Medeiros (Evan Medeiros) as part of the “Prospects for a New Russian-Chinese Visit” event at Stanford University on May 31.
Evan Medeiros stated that the arrests on open charges in Russia in Ukraine Moscow and Beijing have transferred their relations into the category of a close circle: “We see moments connecting them: common interests, a common vision of the situation and common values, plus the personal relationship between Putin and Xi Jinping – and all this was reflected in the flow of China with the moments of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine”
This behavior, according to the scientist, consists of several components: “The first is China’s very strong and constant support for Russia in words: he accuses the US and NATO of “provoking” Russia, he never criticizes Russia’s actions, and even does not say that he is “neutral”, but calls on his “objectivity and impartiality”. And even before the revealed cases reported by journalists about Russian atrocities and natural phenomena in Ukraine, the Chinese side did not measure the Russian side.”
Also a comparison with 2014, when Russia annexed Crimea, China, according to a professor at Georgetown University, a much more serious complication in Russia to spread disinformation about this war: “The tactics, technical details and procedures used by China suggest that there is no simply proportional, namely coordinated (with Russia – D.G.) loads.
Yvan Medeiros of growth, various propaganda stories of Russian propaganda are repeated not only by Chinese media or bloggers, they are broadcast from the official tribune – in particular, they are voiced by high-ranking representatives of the Chinese Foreign Ministry.
Also visible is the strong registration of Beijing’s support for Moscow, which was discussed in the run-up to China at the UN: “During this war in the UN there were many votes envisaged by Russia and its actions – in almost all cases of voting in China, and in one case fully supported by Russia.” says a professor at Town University.
However, Beijing has not stepped over in partnership with Russia’s important “red lines”, the seizure of which was caused by the serious displeasure of Washington. China, speaking on the basis of an expert, was very cautious in the economic sphere, trying not to violate the appeals introduced against Russia, and it did not somehow become a deputy of Moscow in the field of armaments: that Russia asked China for help in the field of conventional weapons, and when the United States about it found out and made it public, Beijing decided that it would not go for it.”
However, Yvan Medeiros also recalled the May 24 summer of Chinese and Russian bombers during a meeting in Tokyo between the leaders of the United States, Japan, Australia and India. Answering the question of the Voice of America Russian Service, whether China and Russia can eventually move to real allied relations, the scientist suggested formalizing the alliance from the real one:
“Russia and China have demonstrated over the years that they are not interested in an alliance if it has determined the existence of a bilateral military assistance treaty. But there is a lot that can be done without such an agreement, and the trajectory of their relationship can lead to such action. Their officials are moving from parallel scientific research to joint combined operations, and they are already clearly collaborating on disinformation. They already have cyber capabilities, tactics and procedures to act against the US, Europe and NATO.”
“I think that this joint flight of bombers during the Quartet summit in Tokyo was a clear signal that their course could be just that,” said the professor at Georgetown University.
Serious doubts that Moscow and Beijing can become allies in the short term explain Una-Alexandra Berzina-Cherenkova (Una Aleksandra Berzina-Cherenkova), head of the Center for Chinese Studies at the University of Riga (Latvia), who also participated in a roundtable organized by Stanford University. In response to a question from Voice of America, she stated:
“There will be no such union in the near future. If we take into account the extreme nationalism of the military elites of each of the countries, as well as their unwillingness to disseminate valuable information, then such unification will not happen. And it usually develops constantly that it does not enter into allied relations with other countries, although in practice, for example, North Korea is its ally, and they quickly extended the alliance agreement.
One of the alleged experts on China, journalist and senior expert at the Carnegie Endowment Alexander Gabuevwho participated in the discussion, noted that, in his opinion, China was caught by surprise by the Russian invasion of Ukraine:
“The Biden administration is known to have been careful to warn of the likelihood of this development and shared very credible information with the Chinese ambassador to the US, being careful in revealing its sources and methods. that the US just wants to quarrel Moscow and Beijing. Chinese analysts were surprised by Vladimir Putin’s irrational behavior.”
Alexander Gabuev says that “China is following the order very strictly, and people in Washington want to take credit for this, saying: “This is the result of the fact that [советник президента США по национальной безопасности] Jake Sullivan spent 7 hours in Rome talking with Yang Jiechi (Executive Secretary of the Strange Affairs Leading Group of the CPC Central Committee, former Foreign Minister of the PRC and Chinese Ambassador to the United States – D.G.), and therefore China knows what the price of violation will be taken away by them.”
But in fact, confident such behavior has more nuances, the expert of the Carnegie Endowment – according to him, China can adapt to changes on an international scale that is constantly changing: “With the current development of economic situations … by contacting some immune legal entities that tomorrow may be under excessive sanctions.
Alexander Gabuev, and China can soon buy these hydrocarbons on very favorable terms: With the emergence of symptoms of an oil embargo, Russia’s position becomes even more susceptible, and its dependence on China is only morbid. So, why should China now discuss any projects in this Russia, if by the end of the year Russia will simply beg on its knees for China to go to any meeting?”
The China expert also believes that Russia is forced to make big compromises with China in the field of technical cooperation, opening up its market much more to digital companies, and this will be the case in various aspects:
“Inequality in relations between China and Russia has been noticed before, now it will be “inequality on steroids”. I expect that in five years China will tell Russia not to sell weapons to India, because China does not like it, and Russia, unfortunately, will be forced to follow from Beijing.”
Former US Ambassador to Russia Michael McFaul (Michael McFaul), also on the call, said that China and Russia had a similar impression of the decline of Western necessity: “Colleagues in Beijing and Moscow felt that the United States had become a “paper tiger,” that our batteries were dead, that we it was decided that our ideas became more than irrelevant, and more important issues are more important …
According to Michael McFaul, Vladimir Putin will fail in his adventure against Ukraine: “I believe that he is already increasing the war somewhat, although he may still bring the battles closer, and for the annexation of some governments he will fight for several more months. But he’s already lost. And this is a very positive thing – not only for Ukraine, but also for the West, for the United States.”
“For the important interests of the meetings, there is nothing more important than the victory of Zelensky, his warrior and his people in Ukraine. Because if they win, then the calculation of forces and opportunities in the world for Beijing and for Moscow will look different, ”concludes the former US ambassador to Russia.