Biden may not give Ukraine missiles, components to bombard Russia. But what missiles can Kyiv still get?
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On Monday, US President Joe Biden said Washington would not transfer large-range missiles capable of hitting targets in Russia. Be that as it may, shortly after that, several Western media immediately published a conclusion about sources in the prosecutor that Kyiv could still receive modern multiple launch rocket systems from the United States, but with a shorter range.
Ukrainian authorities and experts believe that the provision of the American MLRS to Kyiv could be decisive in the war that the Ukrainian army is causing against Russia.
Judging by the accidents with the front, Russia is slowly but steadily seizing new territories in the Luhansk and Donetsk regions, especially to a large extent in British aviation and artillery. According to the Ukrainian authorities, the situation may change if the Armed Forces of Ukraine get the opportunity to inflict mass strikes on public and advanced positions.
For this, the Ukrainian authorities are asking the United States to transfer two multiple launch rocket systems – M142 HIMARS and M270 MLRS with a firing range of up to 300 kilometers. They are at the very top of the list of weapons that Kyiv wanted to receive from Western countries. Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced this on May 21 on the eve of the online talks of the president of defense of more than 40 member states of the Ramstein-2 contact group.
During the last American week, the media reported that Washington is getting closer to this decision, but it has not yet been made. The previous edition of Politico reported that transfers of the Kyiv system are dangerous in the White House, which affect the impact of strikes on Russian territory.
What Biden said and how Medvedev reacted
Reuters correspondent Steve Holland said on Twitter on Monday that he asked Biden this question: “Do you intend to send long-range missile systems to Ukraine?” The US President’s response was: “We do not intend to use short missile systems, which are chosen for destruction on the territory of Russia.”
At the same time, Biden does not specify what kind of missiles he is talking about and whether he intends to block the supply of MLRS to Ukraine without fail.
For a short time, Biden immediately responded to former Russian President and current Russian Security Council Deputy Dmitry Medvedev. AT own telegram channel he called the statement of the President of the United States reasonable.
“Otherwise, when attacking our cities, the Russian Armed Forces would have executed their terrorist attack and struck at the centers for making criminal decisions. Some of them are not in Kyiv at all. No need to explain what’s next …” Medvedev wrote at the same time.
Earlier, Russian Ambassador to Washington Anatoly Antonov expressed hope that the United States was not going to turn to Ukraine for multiple launch rocket systems.
“We hope common sense will prevail and Washington will not take such a provocative step,” he wrote in his telegram channel. “In the wake of the consequences, which we rarely brought to the fore, that the unprecedented pumping of Ukraine affects significant risks of conflict escalation.”
American officials: MLRS still put
However, shortly after President Biden’s words, several influential American media wrote, citing unnamed White House officials, that the Americans were only talking about missile islands with a range date, and Washington did not give up on the idea of supplying modern MLRS to Kyiv.
The Washington Post wrote, referring to the words of a senior US official, that Biden did not rule out the supply of MLRS to Ukraine, but would not give her short-range missiles, unexpected with this system.
MLRS, like HIMARS, can use three types of entertainment. The first M26 missile with a range of up to 32 kilometers or its advanced modern version M26A1 with a range of up to 45 kilometers. Six such missiles are placed in the launch container.
The second is the control of the GMLRS missile with a range of up to 70 kilometers. Finally, instead of the usual container with six missiles, one ATACMS tactical missile with a range of 300 kilometers can be placed in any of the two blocks.
Correspondent of the Voice of America Russian Service (in Russia included in the register of media outlets that act as a “foreign agent”) Mikhail Komadovsky posted on twitterthat a senior White House official explained Biden’s words to him as follows: “[Поставка] MLRS systems are still being repeated, but we are not talking about any sources that can have a significant impact with a large coverage (that is, it was used outside the battlefield).”
Wall Street Journal wrote on Tuesdaythat the United States plans to select GMLRS missiles from Ukraine capable of hitting targets at a distance of more than 40 miles (that is, more than 64 km). According to the publication, Washington did not cause the emergence of tactical missiles with a range of up to 300 km, in order to accurately exclude the possibility of impact on high-load strikes in Russia.
According to the Wall Street Journal, the decision on the supply of MLRS to Ukraine will be announced this week, and they can be left within a few weeks. “After that, training begins at their suggestion, which quickly leaves in at least 10 days,” the newspaper writes.
However, as Aleksey Arestovich, adviser to the head of the presidential office, said in Ukraine on Monday evening, Kyiv will also be satisfied with the supply of missiles capable of at a distance of up to 70 km.
“There are high-precision long-range missiles – such as ATACMS, they fly almost 300 km and hit very accurately – and there are conventional unguided cluster missiles, they fly 70 km, – Arestovich on the air of the Feigin-Live YouTube channel. – This is an analogue of “Smerch” and “Hurricane”. We’ve had enough with our heads and 70 actually.”
According to the Wall Street Journal, we are talking about deliveries to Ukraine of a HIMARS installation mounted on a six-wheeled truck. Such a machine can quickly move out of cover for detection, fire missiles and return back to reload, leaving little time for the enemy to detect and clear retaliation.
Reloading is pretty fast.
Analysis: withWill MLRS be dragged by a “silver bullet”?
Pavel Aksenov, BBC correspondent
In Ukraine and in the West, many believe that such ZOOs of the UN RS should make an important decision, compensate for a certain advantage of Russian artillery and turn the tide of hostilities with their appearance. But in fact, everything is not quite so.
The question is not so much the quality of these systems, but their quantity, as well as how quickly they will arrive in Ukraine, and how quickly their ability to master combat crews.
The Armed Forces of Ukraine rely on the accuracy of artillery strikes, well-established communications, fire control system and target reconnaissance. In such a HIMARS system, an effective application can indeed be realized.
The Russian troops, which have a large advantage in artillery, according to many experts, often showed undesirable training, but the calculated advantage was offset by the lack of howitzers and rocket launchers with their massive use. At the same time, the RF Armed Forces are armed with long-range MLRS, such as Uragan and Smerch.
To achieve parity in artillery, Ukraine must receive dozens of such rocket systems. Rather, because it is necessary to prepare in advance the calculations and the expectation of specialists, which is also expected for some time. Ukraine needs a lot later, but not good.
The GMLRS missile is very different from the tactical ATACMS in both the range and the power of the warhead, but with a range of 70 kilometers it is already possible to fire at a target with an approach that is the maximum range of most Russian artillery systems. The targets can be bridges, headquarters, communications centers, air defense systems, troop concentrations, artillery batteries, and much more.
In addition, the advantage of the Western MLRS systems of Ukraine is also that the United States has the right to generate public needs for them, missiles for Soviet systems such as “Hurricane” and “Smerch” may soon run out.