In Europe the opposition rises, in Greece it loses – The political paradox and how it is explained
This is not the easiest time for governments. The floods of the pandemic, the Russian war in Ukraine and the inflation wave are bringing them new challenges. They are tried hard, they are forced to adjust their policies, but nevertheless, many are not covered by them and feel weak, unprotected, dissatisfied. Obviously, social processes and political differences are underway.
If one examines the electoral trends in European countries, one notices dramatic changes in political correlations in recent months.
In Spain in two months the Center-Right PP has covered four points difference, bringing the correlations to 27% for the Socialist and 26% for the PP (The difference was 27% -22% in February).
In Germany, the losing CDU / CSU from 23% in February has reached 28% and taking advantage of the Social Democrats’ fall from 26% to 22% has turned their difference from 3% against it to a 6% lead.
In Britain in November the Conservatives showed up with 36% versus 37% of Labor. Now the 1% difference has gone to + 6% (Labor 39% vs. 33% Conservatives).
But also in France, Macron’s final victory in the Presidential Elections is put to the test before the Parliamentary Elections, since in addition to the enhanced presence of Le Pen in the Presidential elections with 23.2% in the first round, we also had a particularly strengthened presence of Melanson with 22% who is heading to the Parliamentary Elections leading a co-operation with communists, socialist party and environmentalists.
Conclusion: The big changes that are taking place at this time, the constant surprises and the new data, seem to “mix” the political correlations, often to fuel upheavals. In any case, there is significant social and political mobility.
At the same time in Greece it seems that the “image is frozen”. In the voting proposal in the surveys of OPINION POLL and MARC, the difference between ND and SYRIZA widens and reaches 9.9% and 10.3% respectively. In the estimation of the survey of METRON ANALYSIS the difference is recorded at 10.4% In other three surveys (PULSE, MRB, GPO) the difference in the proposal or in the proposal on the documents and the estimation of the vote the difference appears from 8.5% to and 8.9%. The conclusion of all six surveys is that N.D. increases its percentages and in combination with the stability of the percentages or the very small ones of SYRIZA, the difference increases. In fact, this is happening while three whole years of the Government’s term of office are soon completed in a continuous effort of crisis management.
It is clear that the data of all surveys show that this recovery of the ND and the coverage of opinion polls justified in the announcement of the package of measures to reduce tariffs that are judged by rates from 45% to over 50% as satisfactory, but also in the positive echo of the Prime Minister’s trip to the USA. However, this is the picture of the last month. ND was ahead with big differences even when from the poll 38.5% in January 2021 it reached 30.1% in April 2022 (OPINION POLL surveys).
The difference remained at 8.9% in the simple voting proposal and while there was a society noisy by precision, by a society tired of the successive crises immediately after the bankruptcy and the Memoranda. Even in the most difficult times for the Government and of course in the last polls, the feeling is that the citizens can criticize the Government or create dissatisfaction. But first society seems to attribute in depth that this Government has faced one crisis after another. Secondly, this is not a critique that leads to the request “leave”, but a critique “take action, you take action”.
This picture is not that normal for the political system and certainly not because we have a government that walked without mistakes and oligarchy. It is due to the complete inability of the opposition to propose an alternative and to build positively on a new, convincing proposal. In short, the catastrophizing, the constant polarization, the defense of the pathogenesis of the change of government, the nullification of everything, especially by the party of the Official Opposition, do not convince, do not satisfy, are not an alternative solution. That is why throughout this process he has not managed to collect more than 2%.
Essentially, if there was no significant increase of PASOK from 6.1% (October 2021) to 14.2% in February and 12.7% in May (Reference to a voting proposal in OPINION POLL polls) a from the most difficult times the country in a state of complete political immobility. From the other parties of the K.K.E it is stable in its percentages, the HELLENIC SOLUTION has received about 1.5% and the DAY 25 hovers around the limit for its entry in the Parliament 3%. It is not that normal for the Political System to consist of unconvincing opposition parties.
In any case, there are no deadlocks in the Republic. If the opposition continues with one of the same, K. Mitsotakis and the ND will rule because it is established that “they can do the job”. Creating not only a populist post-political paradox, but a pan-European paradox at a time when “everything flows” throughout Europe
* Zacharias Zoupis is Research Director of OPINION POLL, Political Analyst