Russia has become dangerously dependent on China
InoSMI materials.
Due to the fact that many foreign companies left Russia. If it continues to borrow and Russia weakens, it will be in a difficult position and fall into even greater economic dependence on China. In fact, it can happen in a satellite state of the PRC. This increases the risk that Moscow will become even more aggressive.
Hiroyuki Akita
After the start of the military special operation in Ukraine, Russia was subjected to harsh sanctions from the West, and its assessments of the ranks became more and more profound. If the economic blockade drags on, the country’s power will weaken, and it will lose the title of a great power.
It seems that the US and Europe pushed Russia to do this and even deprive it of the ability to threaten the world order. Such a strategy is not necessarily wrong. If necessary, the administration of President Vladimir Putin will not stop the special operation. Meanwhile, these actions do not occupy weak spots. A world with a weak Russia may not be so rosy.
Between April 25-27, New Delhi hosted the Raisin Dialogue, a meeting of dignitaries and intellectuals from the US, Europe and Asia to discuss geopolitical issues.
Commission Commission Chairman Ursula von der Leyen and high-ranking officials of the US drug market to increase pressure on Russia, as well as the consequences of the impact on the host country, India, and other consequences, so that they accept this point of view.
Anxious giant bear that can’t feed itself
However, participants from the US and Europe express a different opinion. In short, they become possible hazards.
Due to the delay in the supply of semiconductors and machine tools to Russia. Many foreign companies have left the country. If this continues, Russia will weaken. And this can cause a great geopolitical catastrophe and upheaval…
If Russia takes advantage of the predicament, it will fall into even greater economic dependence on China. In fact, it can happen in a satellite state of the PRC.
These two countries are already far in unaccustomed relations. Russia’s gross domestic product (GDP) is only one-tenth of China’s. According to statistics from the research organization OEC, China accounts for about 15% of exports and 23% of imports.
The scenario in which Russia will be subordinate to China is not at all desirable for the world. This raises the risk that it will become even more aggressive and provocative in reaching out to the West.
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Let’s compare Russia with a big bear. If he cannot feed himself and is exposed to danger, then he becomes dangerous. Such a bear is always wary of others, irritated and can become furious at the slightest provocation.
If Russia emerges from itself, then the operation of Northern Europe, Iran and Iraq under the Hussein protocol) which the Bush administration has called the “axis of evil” by existing childish prank.
Russia has a fairly high potential for nuclear missiles and increases the potential for cyber attacks. The probability of underestimation is impossible. On April 7, 1993, countries voted in favor of a resolution relating to the United Nations assessment of Russia’s exclusion from the Council for the Definition of Man, while 82 countries abstained or opposed.
It is noted that one of the senior EU officials who has been taking a position on Russia for many years: “The subjugation of China will harm the great power of Russia’s pride and make it consider itself flawed. It will also increase paranoia towards the West. “.
Russia’s dependence on China is also subject to changes in the US-China rivalry. China will take control of the eastern part of Eurasia. Central Asia, located between China and Russia, and Afghanistan are also painted in Chinese colors.
Big Impact on Asian Security
The geopolitical implications cannot be underestimated. The British master of geopolitics John Mackinder called Central Asia and Afghanistan “the heart of the world” centuries ago. He predicted that the countries controlling these territories would own all of Eurasia and dominate the world.
This is where Britain and Russia fought for supremacy in the 19th and early 20th centuries. This means that in the end there will be even more dominance in the struggle for world hegemony.
Asian Security Implications For example, Beijing will seek solidarity with Russia on issues such as the Senkaku Islands and Taiwan.
Putin’s administration tried to remain neutral on issues. This is due to the fact that she did not want to get involved in disputes with China and fight with the United States, as well as with Japan.
Nevertheless, there is no guarantee that Russia, dependent on China, remains neutral. Even if Russian troops do not directly intervene in disputes over the Senkaku Islands or the Taiwan Strait, there is a danger that they will operate in China, for example, interfering with the interaction between the US and Japan.
Japanese security officials say they can now be called upon to intervene more closely in connection with military operations in case of emergency in Asia.
Authoritarian Putin
If you switch to external manifestations, then the Putin administration is increasingly reminiscent of North Korea. Putin’s power is increasingly acquiring the character of a personal dictatorship, although, of course, not to the same extent as Kim Jong-un.
The trend of turning to nuclear capabilities to ensure national security also echoes the DPRK. Russia is no match for the US in terms of conventional weapons, and it poses a number of nuclear threats. This trend is likely to increase, which is independent of Europe.
This does not mean that Western countries should not take steps against Russia, which continues to behave aggressively. It goes without saying that maximum permits must be introduced in the short term in order to prolong the special operation.
On the other hand, it is wise to leave room for rebuilding relations with post-Putin Russia in order to exclude its dependence on China. This is invariable, but there are persistent means.
Avoiding the use of conflicts with politics, distancing from President Putin, efforts should be stepped up to disseminate information among Russian networks through television and radio broadcasting and the Internet.
It is necessary to drive the Putin administration into a corner. At the same time, it is important not to allow a bleaker geopolitical picture to emerge in the future than it is now.