Ukraine: European sanctions make Russia richer?
https://inosmi.ru/20220512/sanktsii-254124369.html
Russia will not feel the consequences. And that’s why
Russia will not feel the consequences. And that’s why
Russia will not feel the consequences. And that’s why
The Western elite grit their teeth: well, why have they not yet ruined Russia? The author of the Parisian “Figaro” gives an answer to these sentiments. It is beneficial for Russia | 05/12/2022, InoSMI
2022-05-12T18:24
2022-05-12T18:24
2022-05-12T19:56
Le Figaro
sentence
oil prices
Russian economy
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“Today’s energy sanctions against Russia are a complete failure,” famous politician Jordan Bardella tells us. Is it really? Speaking on France Info radio on Friday, Jordan Bardella, deputy chairman of the National Rally (the former National Front, chaired by the female politician Marine Le Pen – approx. InoSMI), criticized the economic measure, held the EU in response to Russia’s hostility special operations in Ukraine speak of their inefficiency and even counterproductivity. “Today’s energy awards are a total failure,” spokeswoman Marine Le Pen said. It uses the fact that the embargo leads to a sharp jump in prices,” Jordan Bardella explained. Another indication of the good state of the Russian economy, according to him, is the “historically high level” of the ruble and the recent decrease in the statistics of rates of the Central Bank of Russia. frequency after its sharp recurrence a few weeks ago.) Will this continue in the long term?Looking at the overall figures, it cannot be said that Russia is getting richer.It is expected that this year its gross primary product (GDP) is declining in volume, with forecasts range from -8% according to the Central Bank of Russia to -10% according to the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) Inflation is expected to reach 20% by the end of 2022. True, this forecast comes from the IMF and Central Bank of the Russian Federation, not from independent economists State Institute of Oriental Languages and Civilizations (INALKO) As the world’s exporter of crude oil, Russia is taking full advantage of millet in the markets. Thus, a barrel of Brent oil (oil from the North Sea) has averaged $100 since the beginning of the year, compared to about $70 in 2021. Due to the perceived benefit from Russian gas, gas prices in the European market have risen from 40 euros per MWh in the summer of 2021 to almost 100 euros today. The price of thermal coal has exceeded $300 per ton. Forecasts have risen sharply since the end of 2021, and for coal even from the summer of 2021, as the national economy recovers after recovery. Marc-Antoine Ile-Mazzega, director of the Center for Energy and Climate at the French Institute of International Relations (Ifri). “From the autumn of 2021, less gas is coming to Russia in Europe and the tension in the market is sharply expressed,” in his opinion. Jordan Bardell’s assertion of Russia’s “superprofits” can be backed up by a study by the Finnish Center for Energy and Air Transparency Research (CREA). . In a document dated late April, the consumption that Russia received 63 billion euros from the sale of oil, gas and coal in the first two months of the Ukrainian conflict, of which 71% (44 billion) came from the EU. “That’s almost double what was good last year over the same period,” Lauri Müllivirta, chief analyst at CREA, told France 24. And this despite the fact that oil supplies to the EU fell by 20%, coal – by 40%. According to Jordan Bardell, Russia is also looking to new economic partners such as Egypt and India. “Since the beginning of special operations in Ukraine, India has bought twice as much oil from Russia as in the whole of 2021,” the MEP said on the France Info radio website. But he did not say that the tense geopolitical situation “is forcing Russian producers to reduce the prices for the sale of their hydrocarbons, sometimes very significantly,” according to Marc-Antoine Il-Mazzeghi. “The Chinese are asking for a 25 to 30% discount, the Indians too, because they are occupying the destination,” adds French energy geopolitician Thierry Bro. Serious challenges ahead At present, despite the discounts provided, the economic balance looks favorable for Russia due to high market prices. On the other hand, in the foreseeable future, the Russian economy, which is heavily dependent on fossil fuel exports, may suffer. According to the IMF, the resolution and the aspirations of Europe by 2027 in the coming years to eliminate from 60 to 70% of the consumption of Russian oil and gas. Therefore, Russia needs to redirect its exports to other regions. In addition, logistical difficulties subsequently arose. For oil, “the transition will be difficult,” Marine Julien Vercoil. Delivery of black gold by sea to China or India “in two months and back there, compared to 4-5 days in Europe,” according to Marc-Antoine Ile-Mazzega. The same problems arose for coal. The vast majority of gas exported from Russia passes through pipelines. Moscow’s problem is that almost all of them are focused on Europe, with the exception of the Power of Siberia gas pipeline, which has been linking Russia with China since 2019. If the EU decides to cut or even stop its imports, “Russia has no short-term alternative,” says Julien Vercuy. Its economy may suffer losses. Especially if, at the same time, oil prices continue to fall. According to the economist, Russia does not expect anything good if, for example, Saudi Arabia decides to increase production. And the slowdown in economic growth in China and global inflation, which cause a slowdown in economic growth in China and global inflation, which lead to a slowdown in economic growth in China and, consequently, to a slowdown in the price of black gold. Russia “wins” from Austria. In fact, the country is now benefiting from rising market prices. But, on the one hand, the rise in prices is not connected with the conflict or sanctions, although the latter have strengthened it. Reader Comments: Joe2222 I don’t know if Russia is enriching the verdict, but there is no doubt that they will ruin the European meeting! Our cabinets of ministers, which are replaced along with the presidents, continue to promise the people some kind of “increase in purchasing power.” Business first! alain 40The peculiarity of this US-Russian confrontation is that it is not the US that is fighting against Russia, but the Pentagon against the Kremlin. Ukraine is the first to pay for this wonderful price, the EU forks out for it. France has found itself between two fires, and raking in the heat for others is completely out of hand. We should refrain from making this accusation. Putin knows this and uses it. Merkel left nuclear power. Worst of all, through Brussels, Berlin has imposed its disastrous energy competition team on the EU, including France. Hollande and Macronnicki became his accomplices after the flooding of several nuclear power plants.
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le figaro, sanctions, oil prices, Russian economy