Turkey “neatly balances”, Russia perceives “as subordinates.” Can Ankara if Moscow threatens Kazakhstan?
RFE/RL: A number of suspicions are suspected in Russia’s war in Ukraine. Do you see signs that Ankara is seizing this opportunity? How has this already manifested itself and how can it manifest itself in the future?
Ivan Preobrazhensky: It seems to me that at the moment there are no clear manifestations of this, of course. Turkey considers itself extremely careful not to dispute the moment. A situation has arisen in which Turkey is harmonizing and trying to moderate the conflict in Ukraine in order to be able to respond to this conflict, and at the same time is trying to establish closer ties with the countries of Central Asia. A vivid example of this is an attempt, together with China, to pave a new way for the transit of goods in the country through the application, in the West as a whole, just through the territory of Central Asia and the Caucasus region. This is a very important point, because in this way Turkey is restoring, say, that historical course, the transit of goods, which a long time ago turned to the seizure of Central Asia by the empire of the Russian Federation. This is the first.
The second is the active support of the body in weight loss and the restoration of oil pipeline projects. It is not only the Caspian pipeline. Recently, the head of the Kurdish autonomy Masoud Barzani came to Turkey. Then he went on a visit to the UK. I believe that oil is being transported through Turkey from the north of Iraq to the EU country as an alternative to the Russian one. In other words, Turkey is engaged in the moderator and hub of energy resources and resources simply from the Asian region in Europe. Bypassing Russia.
The third is Turkey’s relations with the countries of Central Asia. Turkey is in no hurry in this matter, so as not to object to Russia and does not encourage her to actively act in the field of industry. While the balance in this story is a little in the use of Russia, this can be seen from the changes in the survey of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Uzbekistan (Foreign Affairs of Uzbekistan Abdulaziz Kamilov, who said the minister that Uzbekistan recognizes the independence, sovereign and territorial territory of Ukraine and recognizes the separatist “DNR” and “LNR” in Donbass, was dismissed).
RFE/RL: Turkey is interested in connecting ties with Central Asia, it is implementing its own geopolitical project – the Organization of Turkic States. And what is the interest of the Central Asian states in rapprochement with Turkey? Exclusively in a reverse search for an alternative to such a “research center” as Russia, China and the West? Or are there other interests?
Ivan Preobrazhensky: These are possibly very different values. After the collapse of the USSR, Russia remains the main economic partner of Central Asia. They speak the same socio-cultural political language, and from this point of view, neither China nor the West can replace Russia. China, taking into account its position on the Xinjiang problem, cannot be considered completely friendly to Central Asia. His policies towards the Muslim minority will always create relationship problems, especially towards border countries such as Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan.
Investments of European countries will not be attacked by very targeted projects, because economic profit always comes first there.
They don’t have a problem. First, she has no problems. Turkey is not a Western democracy. The Western parallel with the economy will still impose the values of the rule of law. Turkey is not China, which will conduct an anti-Islamic inspection. Turkey is an authoritarian state, corresponding to the situation in the countries of Central Asia, and therefore Erdogan, roughly speaking, speaks the same mental language with the rights of these countries and it is easy for them to negotiate with them. From this point of view, Turkey is a more convenient partner. Turkey is ready to be a partner. It has ideological reasons according to the Pan-Turkic corridor. After the last war in Nagorno-Karabakh, the issue of a land corridor was resolved. If an agreement is signed between Azerbaijan and Armenia, Turkey will use land communication with the countries of Central Asia. This will facilitate the transit of goods and promote economic interaction.
RFE/RL: Kazakhstan is part of the Eurasian Union, which is dominated by Russia. Now Moscow is under sanctions, which, according to forecasts, will affect its industry. A decline in production is expected. It is no secret that Russia is turning the EAEU countries into markets for its products. Can Kazakhstan bypass the Eurasian Economic Union and healthy trade relations with Turkey to reduce its economic dependence on Russia?
Ivan Preobrazhensky: The EAEU for Kazakhstan was not the cause of income and economic prosperity, but a serious headache. The currency of all Central Asian countries with the ruble, and the fall of the ruble is the low currency of these countries. The financial authorities of Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan are now dependent on the Russian ruble. I doubt that Kazakhstan is emerging from the EAEU and the Customs Union, because Russia has a very aggressive policy. The Kazakh authorities are unlikely to risk Russia more seriously, given that Russia’s influence in Central Asia still has serious consequences.
In Central Asia, there is no peace and mutual love between the parties concerned, and Russia is good at and has always developed on the contradictions between its participants. I don’t think Kazakhstan would like to be in conflict with Uzbekistan. And such risks always remain. It is planned that Kazakhstan will now come out of financial dependence in time. Kazakhstan buys something remote from what the part is trying to find within Kazakhstan. Kazakhstan will also be interested in building up cooperation with Turkey on economic issues, and Turkey in the interests of developing relations and its own ideology.
RFE/RL: In recent months, we have witnessed aggressive attacks by Russian politicians and media people against Kazakhstan. There were territorial provisions, minutes of a Russian conference, even calls to “denazify” Kazakhstan. In Kazakhstan, there are not unfounded fears – statements were made against Ukraine. If we imagine the situation that Russia has chosen Kazakhstan as a target of military aggression, do you think Turkey is interfering? Will there be any support?
Ivan Preobrazhensky: The issue is rather complicated, because Turkey is likely to be a fighter in the format that it supports in Ukraine. I doubt that there will be more help, because Turkey is in NATO, and direct French support without a phalanx to establish NATO. With intervention, the question of Turkey’s membership in NATO may be raised. If Turkey intervenes directly in the conflict, other NATO countries should support.
Turkey can become a mediator in coalitions of countries and Russia. This coalition may include China. Beijing is not interested in Russia destabilizing the situation in Central Asia. He carefully intervened when the CSTO contingent was brought into Kazakhstan and gently expressed his displeasure.
RFE/RL: There is an opinion in Kazakh society that an alliance with Turkey is preferable to an alliance with Russia. What caused such sentiments in Kazakhstan?
Ivan Preobrazhensky: Firstly, between Kazakhstan and Turkey there is a linguistic, linguistic proximity, ethnic proximity. Secondly, it provokes an aggressive reaction from Russia even in the first place. Aggression not only against Ukraine, but also against any neighbor, unwillingness to perceive the union state as an ally. That is, the imperial harsh discourse, in which there are Russia’s interests. Those who do not support are enemies, those who support are friends. But friends are like subordinates of Russia. It is very difficult to maintain complete independence, cooperation with Russia, and this is evident in all external, including everyday life, and the Kazakhs close this.
RFE/RL: Recently, there has been talk about Turkey’s desire to create a new military-political bloc “Turan”. Does this idea have a real basis?
Ivan Preobrazhensky: I doubt very much that Turkey can support it at the state level. But at the same time, Turkey, like Russia, has a rich experience among such non-state paramilitary formations that happen in Libya and cases.
RFE/RL: Central Asia is showing interest in Turkish weapons. Kyrgyzstan and Turkmenistan purchased Bayraktar drones. Can Kazakhstan intensify cooperation with Turkey in the military sphere? How? And how will Russia react to this?
Ivan Preobrazhensky: Cooperation is theoretically possible, but not in a wide area. Ukraine and Russia went to the Soviet courts. I think that there will be a renewal of defense capabilities not only in Central Asia, but throughout Eurasia. In recent years, Europe has been spending a lot of money on new weapons, and rearmament has been organized in Central Asia and the Caucasus. There will be an update of air defense systems as a response to the emergence of drones.
RFE/RL: Due to the unresolved border issue in Central Asia, there are cases of conflicts, including with victims, in the Fergana Valley, in enclaves. Recently, Kyrgyzstan opposed the sale of drones by Turkey to Tajikistan. Does Turkey understand the high level of conflict in the ministry? And does she have any verified steps on how to proceed?
Ivan Preobrazhensky: Turkey understands that there is a high level of conflict in Central Asia and has so far avoided serious violence. What role does Turkey play? The reason is that building relations with Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan is one thing, while building relations with Tajikistan, which is economically and politically closer to Iran, is another story. Iran for verification believes that the maximum number of opponents in the industry. So Turkey should take part in the elections of the region.