“Russia is escalating.” Putin wants to annex part of Georgia and Moldova?
US intelligence reportsthat Russia absorbs the Donetsk and Lugansk regions until “mid-May”, and then follows the same scenario in the Kherson region. This was stated with reference to American intelligence at a briefing on May 2 by the US Ambassador at the meetings of Michael Carpenter. According to him, intelligence says that Russia is going to hold a so-called “referendum” on accession sometime in mid-May and that Moscow is considering an analytical plan for Kherson. Can the Russian authorities resort to the annexation of Kherson? Why is the southern region attractive for Russia, financiers and journalists of the project Radio Liberty “News of the Sea of u200bu200bAzov”.
- US Ambassador to the OSCE Michael Carpenter gathered that Russia was kidnapping officials in occupied Ukrainian cities to replace them with “groups loyal to Moscow.” Schools for directors, journalists, foreign activists and municipal officials are also disappearing.
- The British Ministry of Defense, referring to intelligence dataunfortunate that Russia probably wants to maintain political and economic influence in the now occupied Kherson.
- British intelligence officials believe that strong control over Kherson and its transport routes could increase the ability of the Russian Federation to move north and west, as well as strengthen control over the occupied Crimea.
- April 27 Advisor to the head of the OP Alexey Arestovich declaredthat in Kherson the Russian occupiers are already carrying out a “creeping annexation”.
“Interested to destroy, conquer, work”
According to the Ukrainian political scientist Konstantin BatozskyRussia can annex not only the occupied territories of Ukraine, but also Georgia and Moldova.
“There is a certain logic in the actions of the aggressor, but we don’t like this logic, because this logic is decided in the fact that the Kremlin seeks to destroy, conquer, work and develop in its colony the manifestations of the consciousness of Ukraine, which they show to conquer and, perhaps, so “Swallow,” the political scientist believes.
“Since this is not a very large volume, and our troops provide absolutely military resistance to the occupiers, they are concentrated in those territories that are under their control. Most likely Russia will escalate. Now there is no sign that the Kremlin is making any compromises, making goodwill gestures. The escalation will be caused by an explosion of subjectivity of the occupied investigations, as was the case with the “DNR” and “LNR”. And, perhaps, even the accession of not only the Ukrainian occupied territories to Russia, but also Transnistria, South Ossetia, Abkhazia, that is, all other occupied territories of other former Soviet states. The Kremlin will, of course, agree to this,” he added.
The strategic goal of the Kremlin
political expert Taras Zagorodny noted that Russia is interested in the occupation of the south, since it is connected with the possibility of controlling Montenegro and the Sea of Azov, providing water resources for the occupied Crimea, as well as receiving income from the agricultural sector of the southern region of Ukraine.
“They had a strategic goal for a long time – to tear Ukraine away from the sea, they provide a simple thing – without access to seaports, access to the sea – this greatly limits Ukraine’s development,” he said.
As an example, he cited grain in elevators, because Ukraine cannot export it, because the ports of Odessa and the region are blocked.
They have long had a strategic goal – to tear Ukraine away from the sea
“Such volumes cannot be exported by rail from parts of Poland, for example, in the Baltic countries. This is very restrictive on imports. This is what they wanted back in 2014 and now they are repeating it. The next interest is water in the Crimea. Here the principle of control over Kherson, the region, over New Kakhovka is established in order to provide free water. It is also a land corridor from Donbass to Transnistria with the disclosure of aggression against Moldova. Plus, it’s a purely agricultural moment, ”Zagorodniy explained.
The expert that in the event of a prolonged occupation of the southern territories of Ukraine, Russia may resort to the deportation of the local population, as well as continue repressions against Ukrainians who disagree with the occupation.
“We think in the logic of content, where people need to be protected. No, the Russians don’t think like that. The business plan, relatively speaking, is as follows: seize the territory, shoot those who did not agree, repress them, if necessary in their experience, relocate, deport to the Far East, possibly take away the Russians who will serve the export flows. Well, how many people need to grow corn and export it? Not much, but Kherson, as a city, they don’t need at all in this case, if they think in this case, ”Zagorodny is sure.
He is convinced that in the Kherson region there may be such a situation that in the blocked Mariupol – “people will work for food, clean up groups or go to Russia.”
“These are windfall profits, especially if they control food and the price of food goes up. If Ukraine does not sow the southern regions and cannot export, then the price of Russian grain crops. There are no restrictions on exports to Russia, it continues to go, its price is growing, Russia is making super profits. That is, such a barbaric technology, now they are being implemented in Ukraine,” the expert believes.
According to his Ukrainian authorities and Western partners, how dangerous the occupation of the south is, so the region will seek to win back the military way.
“For us, this is also a key region, for us all regions are key, but the Kherson region and all the others are recaptured. The problem is that we do not have a heavy impact to knock out the Kherson region of the enemy. But the Kherson region is key. Politics Putin in what will happen: they plan to start talking about a truce, fix the capture of this area that needs to be resolved, and then, while the war is forgotten, occupy part of the territory, pump out resources, forget it – start a new offensive, ”Zagorodny.
The expert is convinced that “the Kremlin wants to chop off Ukraine in parts”: “But, judging by the mood, including our Western spouses, they give enough preference to Russia in Ukraine, so among women, until Ukraine is ready to recapture these territories. Judging by the mood of the army, the mood of our train, most likely it will be so, Donbass and Crimea.”
“Putin is looking for options”
Russian political scientist Mikhail Savva believes that Russia can indeed resort to the annexation of the southern region of Ukraine, since the idea of organizing the so-called “referendum” was unsuccessful.
“I think it’s really about annexation. Now the Putin regime is looking for a design option for this application, there are several such options. We saw that preparations were made in such a way as to hold a “referendum”. Relatively speaking, the Crimean version, when in the international arena the Russian Federation said that we were talking about free will, and not about annexation. With the calculation that this “referendum” was canceled, people simply did not come to this “vote”, it became impossible as a result of the position of the inhabitants of this territory,” Jordan Savva.
“Russia is now looking for other options, perhaps we are talking about outright annexation, that is, about “inclusion” of these events in the Russian Federation. I do not allow this, because the Putin regime has already ceased to hide behind broad manifestations of norms, laws, or it is about recognizing any temporary status of events. The introduction of Russian military administrations there – and such options, as we know from practice, can be quite long. This, too, can drag on for years,” Savva drew attention.
According to the political scientist, in Russia the authorities are counting on the action of propaganda in the southern part of Australia and through the language network.
“If only the Russian Federation gets the desired kind of control over countless territories in the near future, a propaganda switch will be turned on there. The Russian authorities have already taken up this. Literally behind the first echelon of the aggressor detachments, engineers are brought in to reconfigure television towers, and the broadcast of Russian television channels begins. Therefore, they hope that the repeated Russian propaganda will do its job against the Ukrainians – and, perhaps, through the French attempt to hold a “referendum” will be, – the political scientist believes.
REFERENCE: The Russian full-scale military invasion of Ukraine has been going on since the morning of February 24th. Russian troops arrive at the territory of airstrikes on the coastal territory and civilian police, arrive at airfields, military units, oil depots, gas stations, churches, schools and hospitals. The shelling of the population was occupied with the use of artillery, multiple rocket launchers and ballistic missiles.
A number of Western countries, including the US and EU countries, have tightened sanctions on Russia and condemned private life in Ukraine.
Russia denies that it opposes the capture of Ukraine on its territory and suggests this “special operation”, which aims at “demilitarization and denazification”.
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