Will Russia use Pridnestrovie in the war with Ukraine – says the former Deputy Prime Minister for the reintegration of Moldova
There are two types of Russian troops in the self-proclaimed Transnistria. The first ones are, as they are called in Russia, “spiritual”: there are about 500 of them, standing together with the Moldovan military and observers from other countries. The second type is a “limited group of troops” that guards Russian warehouses in the village of Kolbasna. About this Present Tense told former Minister of Defense of Moldova, Anatol Salaru. The Moldovan ex-Minister of Defense does not know how many prosecutors and which ones, but he noted that they are guarded by about 2,200 Russian soldiers.
Former Deputy Prime Minister for Reintegration of Moldova Alexander Flenchia, on the air of Real Time, said whether Russia, in his opinion, can somehow replenish stocks in Pridnestrovie in the service of military operations in Ukraine. He also told how the separatist Transnistria differs from the separatist “republic” of Donbass and why it is not advisable for Russia to join this territory now.
– A lot was connected with the Ukrainian press, from Ukrainian intelligence that an offensive from the territory of Transnistria could really start on the territory of Ukraine. Do you know how the number of servicemen has changed there?
– None, because Transnistria is sandwiched between Ukraine and is being liberated by parts of Moldova. It should be understood that Transnistria is fundamentally different from the separatist “republics” of Donbass – primarily the lack of borders with Russia. And secondly, the fact that, unlike the separatists in the Donbass, the ruling elite of Transnistria achieved all its goals even before the war. They have nothing more to strive for. They have free Russian gas, which they essentially steal, and there was smuggling before the war. They didn’t need anything else.
– Probably, I understand that they still work well on Russian gas.
— Yes, definitely. Gas is primarily used to get energy from it for a large thermal power plant, which they sell to right-bank Moldova for getting good long dollars. And, in fact, it’s just a free feeder for the next three years. They do not need to change anything: neither to be part of Russia, nor to receive the status of a recognized INF country. All these feeders will simply cover any of the reactions. Therefore, they have no interest in changing the status quo in any way, let alone attacking Ukraine.
– It is unlikely that the people who govern Pridnestrovie are independent and independent of Moscow?
— There is a certain level of independence and autonomy in terms of daily decisions in the daily life of the region. It is clear that there is something in common with Moscow: political, financial and military-transport dependence on the part of the so-called sentiments. But otherwise, the president of Transnistria himself – the so-called Krasnoselsky, the so-called foreign minister Ignatiev and a huge number of other people in the upper part, with the exception of Russian passports, who also have Ukrainian passports. And many also have Moldovan passports. It happens in different combinations, and many – all three. Therefore, it is very random, in the root it turns out.
What they have in common with the Donbass is that both there and in Moldova, these separatist “republics” were created with the direct support of Russia. In fact, they were Moscow. And then each of them has its own story.
– That is, a variant of any pressure from Russia on this topic, including military pressure is being worked out?
“There are no resources for military pressure. The most painful pressure would be the consumption of gas, which, by the way, may already be on Sunday. At the end of April, the contract required to extend the term of Gazprom expires. What we will have with gas supplies, pending from May 1, is unknown. Transnistria receives this gas in transit through Ukraine under a general contract between Moldova and Gazprom.
– That is, if gas does not flow towards Chisinau, it will not be in the pipe that is in Transnistria?
— Quite right. And force Transnistria to mobilize and fight against Ukraine [не получится]. There is no gas – and no, money – even less. Why would they fight? And everything will be so bad.
– Information has always been collected that in Pridnestrovie, pensioners are paid an additional payment. Moscow City Hall. Are there no financial instruments of pressure in the Kremlin either?
— Yes, these allowances, as far as I know, [поступают] from the federal government of the Moscow City Hall, but I was wrong. They are there, but one way or another it cannot cause this situation, because there are no resources for it. As Anatoly Salaru said: “If such a military adventure comes to someone’s mind – to launch an offensive in Odessa with significantly forces from Transnistria, then large resources will cost their salvation.” Due to the fact that both in terms of preparation and in terms of use, these are all established equipment of the 70-80s. This is completely irrelevant in the conditions of the war in Ukraine.
– Do I understand correctly that Ukraine should be well aware of how much Russian equipment is in Pridnestrovie, because penetration into Pridnestrovie is possible only through Ukraine and Moldova, and any movements are controlled by an unlimited number of countries?
– Undoubtedly. Ukraine has a fairly clear idea of what is there and what is there. Another thing is that in the conditions of a full-scale war and Russian aggression, every use is important. Even the fact of the military warehouses of the Russian Federation, 20,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 same, supply, logistics – this is also important in a war. The General Staff of Ukraine cannot ignore these facts either.
Theoretically and expectedly, Transnistria can become a kind of springboard for search, supply, but for this it is also necessary to change the situation in the theater of operations. We need a way out and a corridor that connected Russian forces with Transnistria. I do not see the prospect of this. I want to believe that this situation will not pass.
– Is there a place in Pridnestrovie, for example, an airfield, so that a plane with an open landing could land?
– There is a military airfield, which assumes the existence within the next three years within the permissible level, so that at least during the daytime the reception of aircraft. At night, as far as I know, this is not possible. But literally on Tuesday night, explosions seemed to sound there. It is probably now suitable for receiving aircraft, this is a question. The information there was conflicting. Another Pridnestrovian leadership confirmed that there had been explosions at the airfield, and subsequently, after listing the entire series of terrorist attacks, they missed the airfield. In Chisinau, President Maia Sandu, after the meeting of the Security Council, also mentioned the airfield in Tiraspol as one of the targets of the attack.
– Do you understand who these attacks could have been organized by?
— The answer to this question depends on what goals were pursued. The goals, in my opinion, are to draw Moldova into the war. You have to understand that these are provocations, and they certainly were provocations, because grenade launchers shot at an empty building of the Ministry of State Security on a day off, it is clear that this is not a real attack, but a visible maneuver and provocation. The provocation is not against Pridnestrovie, but against Moldova as a whole, of which Pridnestrovie is a part.
– If we still start from the scenario that Russia decides to use Pridnestrovie partially the consequences that are placed there, how can there be trade in Moldova on this?
“Moldova can use these only political and preventive measures. In Moldova, there would be no military forces that would help her bring it on this military plane – this must be done. Moldova, as a natural history of the state, throughout its independence has made an offer of neutrality and diplomacy – not to strengthen the armed forces. Therefore, here it is necessary to work with suspicion, talking through all possible risks with neighbors: with Ukraine, with Romania, with the smart union, with the United States and with NATO. In conditions when NATO countries provide comprehensive support to Ukraine and regulate our borders, military transit from Germany and Poland takes place, all these processes need to be discussed and agreed on a set of preventive measures.
– Unlikely Moldovan leadership to consider risks that Russia could take on Transnistria joins in the same way as it happened in Crimea, or in the same way as it is now Happens with Donbass?
– As I see the situation, as it arises, all possible scenarios are being worked out and considered. It is not entirely clear what responses and penalties are being worked out in relation to common scenarios, including the one you mentioned. One gets the feeling that all hopes for Ukraine are for the armed forces and the people of Ukraine, which were held back by the aggressor. And that this corridor, about which General Minnekaev spoke, will not be created. And without it, such a scenario is unrealizable.
Do you personally believe in such a possibility?
– It seems to me that in the course of events there is neither a political nor a historical situation for Russia to implement such a scenario, and there are no opportunities either. Only in the case of some catastrophic scenario for Ukraine and in some hypothetical situation. The most realistic, as it seems to me, unfortunately, is the scenario of a deep freeze of this war, suspension of hostilities and further freezing of the conflict with the occupation of part of the events in Ukraine.
– It is curious that you are talking about the lack of political power to seize Transnistria, but probably at present many political scientists would like to ask what is the political economy of seizing the territory of Ukraine.
– This is consistent with the general ideology of the collection of Russian lands. And Moldova, even Transnistria, are not Russian lands. This is increasingly difficult to justify for internal needs.