Russia follows the trail – Kommersant St. Petersburg
According to the conclusions, due to recent geopolitical events in Russia, the course towards the deterioration of the carbon footprint can be partially adjusted, but in general it will be maintained in the expected future.
In 2021, the Russian government presented the Roadmap for the decarbonization of the Russian economy. In accordance with the adopted Strategy, by 2050 greenhouse gas emissions should be reduced by 79% of the achieved level. By 2060, our country must achieve and completely eliminate carbon neutrality.
The latest geopolitical events have so far had no outward effect on the task set in terms of the carbon footprint – on the occasion of the occurrence, the Kremlin did not voice a departure from the set course. Nevertheless, according to a number of experts, in the near future, financial and technological complexity, the withdrawal of foreign corporations from a number of countries, which have actively demonstrated an example of business decarbonization, will slow down the fulfillment of environmental obligations.
Keeping the trend
According to the financial analyst of FG “Finam” Alexey Kalachev, ESG ratings stop working due to decision-making. ‘Exports in the country, attaching importance, emissions. Import of equipment and technologies, consumption for consumption, consumption. To consider the financial sustainability of the company, investment programs will be cut, including the use of environmental programs. What is already at a high stage of implementation can be continued and completed, but new projects will be frozen. Nevertheless, I believe that the course towards reducing the carbon content as a result of the activity of producers will continue in the expected future, but serious goals will be pushed back, since the current situation matters its relevance,” he believes.
The first vice-president of the Moscow Credit Bank (MCB) Yulia Titova has a similar opinion. “Certainly limits the ability of companies to reduce their environmental impact. Already now we are suffering, – an expert on economic development, – a shift in the timing of the transition of business to more dangerous “green” technologies. Despite this, exceptional targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions are feasible, as they are important.”
According to Rinat Rezvanov, senior scientific representative of the NIFI of the Ministry of Finance of Russia, the vector of movement towards consistent implementation in Russian economic practice adheres to the principles of sustainable development has undergone quite serious changes over the past month. No, of course, a 180-degree turn did not happen – and this in itself is taken as a good sign. But significant adjustments have certainly taken place. This is especially evident, for example, in the changes that have taken place in such three manifestations as the formation of elements of the national CO2 emission quota system, the contribution of non-financial ESG reporting and understanding of the mechanism for finding the best available technologies (BAT). It is hardly worth expecting that businesses will completely abandon the publication of non-financial ESG reports. This is largely due to the dynamic growth of the most stable sector in the world, and strictly, even in the face of severe sanctions pressure, the calculation is based on the avoidance of gaps in the income statement. Another thing is the market for checking non-financial ESG reporting: here the previously prescribed mandatory auditing can more likely be replaced by the principle of voluntariness. The obvious losers from this are rating and consulting companies – one of the first to receive the status of a verifier in the Russian market, ”Rinat Rezvanov appears.
The relatively painless measures introduced should outlive the electric vehicle industry, which is part of a global carbon footprint strategy. Such seals form the basis and chief designer of Change Mobility Together, electric vehicle developer Oleg Klyavin. “The sanctions have given impetus to accelerated modernization, as well as to the launch of mass production of electric vehicles in the foreseeable future in the country. Probability violations affected most of the already launched productions, but Russian electric vehicles in other situations. Domestically, food components are being developed: an electric motor, a battery, and so on. The developers are now faced with the task of creating a single system that will combine all the components and technologies for a specific electric vehicle. The market is being rebuilt in the next six months or a year, but what it will look like depends on entrepreneurs and engineers. One thing is for sure: the trend towards decarbonization due to the spread of the share of electric vehicles of crimes, ”continued the representative of the industry.
Political aspect
The ongoing process of achieving carbon neutrality and the transition to energy-efficient technologies is undoubtedly currently moving at a slower pace or not moving fast, says Ksenia Kasyanova, director of research and development at the CROS agency. “A number of companies are freezing projects due to uncertainty and unavailability of investments that are calculated, some are looking for an opportunity to reorient enterprises. At the same time, enterprises do not intend to abandon the transformation of production processes: high and technological ones are being reviewed, and not the costs of energy efficiency are being reduced. The course to reduce the carbon footprint is government, for its implementation of various kinds of initiatives. We see a new round of incentives for companies to switch to “green” technologies. Sometimes, it forms, the abbreviation ESG will appear less in this process.
Konstantin Erokhin, a lawyer, partner at J&S Legal Counsels and Trustees, also talks about adjusting possible aspects of ESG, including those associated with that partnership. “The state tries to get consumers of initial resources. In this vein, there will definitely not be coverage of the international obligations assumed in terms of environmental priorities. This is also difficult in terms of changes in important logistics flows, shortages of equipment, spare parts and components, and other issues that make it difficult to implement programs. It is important to understand that after the latest attacks by our Western partners on environmental issues, the Russian Federation will fundamentally try to implement its own projects, in which it will play a leading role and will not violate obligations with other countries. A possible forecast is the suspension of all actions to order a decision to lift the arrest and normalize the political situation with the dangers of the country. It is also possible to develop possible design options and programs that are not envisaged by the EU and the US (for example, within the framework of BRICS), and implement such programs independently,” suggests Konstantin Erokhin.
According to experts, recent developments related to Russia and Ukraine can be used for decarbonization projects currently being implemented in other countries. “Due to the transition of countries with gas to more carbon-intensive coal, Spain in the delivery of various goods, as well as the delay in the transition to green energy sources and electric-out-of-transport due to interruptions in the supply of natural resources, an increase in nearby park gases is likely. At the same time, European countries expect that businesses will be forced to more actively switch to “green” energy, thereby the most dangerous impact can be partially offset,” Yulia Titova.
According to Alexander Svidovskiy, General Director of Vtor-Plast, any manifestations of a negative impact on the carbon footprint. Europe’s refusal to purchase goods or other goods from Russia and the search for goods will certainly affect the environment. “Countries are ready, conditionally, to overpay 20% only in order not to buy something from Russia. But where does that 20% go? They are aimed at logistics as well as more complex mining. Accordingly, the higher these costs, the higher will be the carbon footprint. We all live on the same planet, – he reminds, – and any actions are not connected, but contrary, when issues are resolved by conflict, and not by dialogue, they will force them to look for workarounds, they will cost, pollution will affect, among other things, population coverage. However, in any case, the downward trend in the carbon footprint will be achieved.