Russia under sanctions is stronger than it was in the 1990s
Former adviser to the President of the Russian Federation, former Minister of Foreign Economic Relations of the Russian Federation Sergey Glazyev spoke about the experience of overcoming the crisis in the 90s
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Sanctions against Russia in general and the Urals in particular
The sanctions war that the West has declared against Russia may be close to the same technology as the resonance in 1998. For this, the government should have made a bank loan available, according to ex-adviser to the President of the Russian Federation, former Minister of Foreign Economic Relations of the Russian Federation Sergey Glazyev. The expert spoke about how to stabilize the ruble, reduce inflation and prevent a default in an interview with URA.RU.
– How can the current government apply the previous experience of Russia in connection with the crisis, under the conditions of Western sanctions pressure, for example, recall the default of 1998?
![Day of open doors in the Central Bank of the Russian Federation in the Ural region. Yekaterinburg](https://s.ura.news/images/news/upload/articles/284/437/1036284437/242588_Deny_otkritih_dverey_v_TsB_RF_po_Uralyskomu_regionu_Ekaterinburg_rubly_inflyatsiya_vozdushnie_shariki_obestsenivanie_deneg_250x0_2376.1580.0.0.jpg)
Sergei Glazyev remembered how the ruble exchange rate and inflation were stabilized in the 90s.
A photo: Vladimir Zhabrikov © URA.RU
– During the evolution in the 1990s, it achieved a production increase of 2% per month and 20% economic growth. The ruble exchange rate has stabilized, inflation has decreased. Then the dependence of the loan on the negative severity of the expressed interest rate, that is, the award of 60%, loans were issued at 10%. Thanks to the influx of borrowed funds, free production enterprises were involved and began to grow rapidly. The same situation developed in 1998, when the state went bankrupt. We recommend canceling the economic breakthrough.
What should the government do to repeat that economic breakthrough?
![Exhibition "Import substitution". Moscow](https://s.ura.news/images/news/upload/articles/284/437/1036284437/150225_Vistavka_Importozameshtenie_Moskva_250x0_4096.2731.0.0.jpg)
For the deployment of import substitution, targeted lending of working capital of enterprises is necessary, the expert believes
A photo: varlamov.ru
– The basis of simple things is the stabilization of the exchange rate by preventing speculators from entering the foreign exchange market and increasing the volume of currency by commercial banks. As well as the expansion of lending to the economy under those mathematical plans and goals that have been set by the president and established.
– One of the main areas of work of the Russian Federation is import substitution. The sanctions only made it worse. How can this plan be implemented as quickly as possible?
– In order for import substitution to unfold on the required scale, targeted lending to working capital of enterprises is necessary. Today, the utilization of production capacities is on average 60%, and in mechanical engineering about 30%, that is, we can increase output by one and a half times and secure imported goods by 80% of the positions, by 20% we, unfortunately, do not have our own technologies.
But 80% of imports that are not consumed from Europe, we intend to purposefully use special production with the expectation of lending at reasonable interest rates. Reasonable – this is no more than 2% -3% for the final retention.
— Russian authorities West buy gas for rubles. With friendly countries, a special account is also kept of settlements in the national currency. China is important. What compromise can there be here, what is the mechanism of trade in case of abandoning the dollar and the euro?
![Debating club "Sparrow Hills". Moscow](https://s.ura.news/images/news/upload/articles/284/437/1036284437/682052_Diskussionniy_klub_Vorobyevi_gori_Moskva_glazyev_sergey_250x0_3600.2406.0.0.jpg)
The Russian authorities are interested in the introduction of a new accounting currency, Defense Ministry Sergey Glazyev
A photo: Vladimir Andreev © URA.RU
– They may be the introduction of a new accounting currency. This is still a discussion of experience, but the interest in it on the part of decision makers today is manifold. We have a comparison SDR – international fund. So-called special recovery rights. This currency, which is issued on the basis of a basket of currencies, verified foreign exchange reserves. It is necessary to create a new unit of account for Asia, for example, for the Shanghai Organization. It must be legal on the national currency pool and on the 20-commodity bundle.
— The Government of the Russian Federation has already adopted four packages of measures to support the economy. Can they prevent emissions from falling?
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— The government is doing everything possible within its competence, but we must remember that the financing of economic growth is based on credit. We have plus 10% economic growth, and we have -10%. Everything depends on economic policy measures. The main reason for the decline in production, which is predicted, is in the percentage of rates, which attracts a contraction in economic activity. Sanctions do not hinder the development of economic growth. With proper verification, they will be fully compensated.
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The sanctions war that the West has declared against Russia may be close to the same technology as the resonance in 1998. For this, the government should have made a bank loan available, according to ex-adviser to the President of the Russian Federation, former Minister of Foreign Economic Relations of the Russian Federation Sergey Glazyev. The expert spoke about how to stabilize the ruble, reduce inflation and prevent a default in an interview with URA.RU. – How can the current government apply the previous experience of Russia in connection with the crisis, under the conditions of Western sanctions pressure, for example, recall the default of 1998? – During the evolution in the 1990s, it achieved a production increase of 2% per month and 20% economic growth. The ruble exchange rate has stabilized, inflation has decreased. Then the dependence of the loan on the negative severity of the expressed interest rate, that is, the award of 60%, loans were issued at 10%. Thanks to the influx of borrowed funds, free production enterprises were involved and began to grow rapidly. The same situation developed in 1998, when the state went bankrupt. We recommend canceling the economic breakthrough. What should the government do to repeat that economic breakthrough? – The basis of simple things is the stabilization of the exchange rate by preventing speculators from entering the foreign exchange market and increasing the volume of currency by commercial banks. As well as the expansion of lending to the economy under those mathematical plans and goals that have been set by the president and established. – One of the main areas of work of the Russian Federation is import substitution. The sanctions only made it worse. How can this plan be implemented as quickly as possible? – In order for import substitution to unfold on the required scale, targeted lending to working capital of enterprises is necessary. Today, the utilization of production capacities is on average 60%, and in mechanical engineering about 30%, that is, we can increase output by one and a half times and secure imported goods by 80% of the positions, by 20% we, unfortunately, do not have our own technologies. But 80% of imports that are not consumed from Europe, we intend to purposefully use special production with the expectation of lending at reasonable interest rates. Reasonable – this is no more than 2% -3% for the final retention. — Russian authorities West buy gas for rubles. With friendly countries, a special account is also kept of settlements in the national currency. China is important. What compromise can there be here, what is the mechanism of trade in case of abandoning the dollar and the euro? – They may be the introduction of a new accounting currency. This is still a discussion of experience, but the interest in it on the part of decision makers today is manifold. We have a comparison SDR – international fund. So-called special recovery rights. This currency, which is issued on the basis of a basket of currencies, verified foreign exchange reserves. It is necessary to create a new unit of account for Asia, for example, for the Shanghai Organization. It must be legal on the national currency pool and on the 20-commodity bundle. — The Government of the Russian Federation has already adopted four packages of measures to support the economy. Can they prevent emissions from falling? — The government is doing everything possible within its competence, but we must remember that the financing of economic growth is based on credit. We have plus 10% economic growth, and we have -10%. Everything depends on economic policy measures. The main reason for the decline in production, which is predicted, is in the percentage of rates, which attracts a contraction in economic activity. Sanctions do not hinder the development of economic growth. With proper verification, they will be fully compensated.