“He who dominates the west wins the war”: Ukraine fights for control of the sky
- Jonathan Beal
- BBC defense correspondent
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According to Captain Kravchuk, Ukraine currently lacks medium and long-range air defense systems
Until recently, the main focus of the war in Ukraine has been on the ground, but the fight against dominance in the sky is no less important. A Ukrainian air defense officer gave an exclusive interview to the BBC about the battle for control of the skies.
Captain Vasily Kravchuk has a surprisingly light smile for a man who has gone through 50 days of the war. We are talking to him via video link with his location, in which he did not reveal himself.
He knows there will be no respite in the coming weeks. Russia may have failed in its attempt to capture Kyiv, but now that its main forces have moved into the Donbass and are starting the next phase of the war, the fighters of the Dnieper Anti-Aircraft Missile Brigade will play a key role in it.
Huge holey fly swatter
Protecting the skies of Ukraine from Russian attacks is protecting the problem. As another Ukrainian air defense chief told the BBC, this would likely lead to the use of a huge fly swatter with large holes.
“We can’t close all airspace,” Captain Kravchuk says. The very fact that he is sitting and talking to us is remarkable, especially considering that “many air defense facilities were completely or partially neutralized” in the first days of the war.
Ukrainian patients rarely admit that they have a high sensitivity to muscle diseases. But, despite the loss, the surviving air defense systems still work effectively.
According to the military analytical website Oryx, Ukraine has destroyed, damaged or captured at least 82 mobile aircraft, including planes, helicopters and drones. Losses of Ukrainian aviation, according to the site, amount to 33 units.
The success of the Ukrainian side in the confusion of military experts, who predicted that Russia would quickly achieve superiority on the coast over Ukraine. The Pentagon reports that Russian aviation performs about 250 sorties daily and carries about 30 aircraft to attack. Western experts still say that Russia is struggling to achieve dominance in the global market.
The Ukrainian Air Force, which consists mainly of no longer new MiG-29 fighters, has difficulty counteracting Russian aircraft, performing at best about 10 sorties a day.
Ukraine means that Russia has an advantage in the sky, and therefore has repeatedly called on Western countries to close the airspace over the country.
However, the Russian offensive in the Donbass presents a new, more complex challenge.
Russian aircraft are likely to operate more freely over the Donbass than over the possible territory due to the region’s adjustment to restricted airspace, says senior Justin Bronk, a research fellow at the Royal Association of Armed Forces Associations.
Limiting capture requires a combination of high and short range, which is what is called layered defense. The West is placing a significant number of short-range surface-to-air missiles in the country. Only the United States has already sent 2 “stingers” to Ukraine. The UK has also supplied Ukraine with many Starstreak high-speed anti-aircraft missiles – exactly how many are unknown.
Captain Kravchuk says that his country is grateful for man-portable air defense systems, but export ones, that they are good only at the front.
Photographer, Reuters
Russia failed to completely suppress the Ukrainian air defense systems
MANPADS are most effective against low-flying targets, and Russia mainly uses long-range cruise missiles and high-altitude bombers.
“Now we lack medium and long-range air defense systems,” Kravchuk told the BBC.
The resumption of proliferation in the Donbass will put a serious strain on Ukraine’s air defense system.
Ukraine
Although Ukraine’s focus of hostilities has shifted to the east, other parts of the country still need protection. Ukraine is sending additional anti-aircraft weapons to the east. However, it cannot afford to transfer all air defense systems to the Donbass.
“We can’t leave half of Ukraine completely defenseless,” Kravchuk says.
Ukraine is forced to use its air defense systems to use not only Russian aircraft, but also cruise and ballistic missiles. Shoot down all the inevitable, although there is no success.
According to Kravchuk, his shares are from 50 to 70% of Russian long-range missiles. For example, upon arrival, Russia recently acquired his six missiles on the Dnieper, four of them managed to be destroyed.
Photographer, Getty Images
Consequences of a Russian missile attack on an oil refinery in Odessa
Since the start of the war, Russia has launched 1,550 missiles, according to the Pentagon. Russia claims it also uses hypersonic missiles. The air defense of Ukraine has little to oppose them, because they operate five times faster than sound.
The hard truth is that without more serious military support for Ukraine, it will be increasingly difficult to build up against Russian air and missile strikes.
Long-range and medium-range air defenses were at the top of the list of additional weapons shipments, a senior Western intelligence official told the BBC. “They need resources that have air defense systems,” he says.
“Past wars are counted that whoever dominates Wales wins the war,” says Captain Kravchuk.
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