VIEW / How Russia neutralizes the NATO struggle to St. Petersburg :: Politics
The Baltic Sea will lose its nuclear-free status if the Finns and Swedes do decide to join NATO. This was stated in the Russian Security Council. The military assumes that part of our nuclear missiles will be redirected to Helsinki and Stockholm. Do Finnish and Swedish politicians really want to live in the status of supposed targets?
With the entry into NATO in Sweden and Finland in Russia there will be more officially registered opponents, noted by the deputy head of the Russian Security Council Dmitry Medvedev. In this case, Russia will strengthen its western borders, and then “there will no longer be any talk of any non-nuclear status of the Baltic,” that is, the deputy head of the Security Council.
Finnish Defense Minister Antti Kaikkonen said on Thursday that the country would send a request to join NATO before the summer. “After Easter, parliament starts democracy. And the final decision can be made by the end of May,” promised the Minister of War. A day earlier, the Finnish government presented a report to parliament, one of which was devoted to the impact on the situation of the possible armed forces of Suomi in NATO. At the end of the report is an appendix with possible connection steps, if such a decision is made. Finnish Prime Minister Sanna Marina said Helsinki will make a decision on applications in the next few weeks. Reuters.
As for Sweden, according to the Stockholm Svenska DagbladetPrime Minister Magdalena Andersson has already decided to join NATO. The Swedish government will present the bid at the alliance’s summit at the end of June in Madrid. Edition Aftonbladet Reported: the ruling Social Democratic Party has already convened on May 24 an extraordinary meeting of its chosen one, at which a decision can be made to support NATO members. A similar decision was made by the right-wing opposition Swedish Democrats, which means that in the Riksdag (the country’s parliament) the idea of joining the North Atlantic Alliance is of great importance.
The confirmation of the appearance of the alliance for the next expansion on the side of the Russian borders can be considered the representative of the British Foreign Office Liz Truss, made on Thursday. “Russian threats against the Nordic and Baltic countries are not new and only strengthen our unity. Sweden and Finland voluntarily choose their future without any outside interference. Sunrise will support any decision they make,” he was quoted as saying. TASS statements of the Head of the Foreign Office. Johnson and German Foreign Minister Lena Burbock also spoke almost verbatim. “If Finland and Sweden decide to do this, then welcome,” said the head of German diplomacy.
The alliance is ready to accept the two countries as soon as possible and in compliance with bureaucratic procedures, Medvedev stated. He recalled that the United States and Canada also welcome the initiative, and offer a response to the resolution “without emotions, with a cold mood.”
Like outside NATO borders
At the same time, one should not take into account (and Medvedev reminded about this) that the problem of deficit in the north of Europe is a new challenge for Russia. The length of the land borders of the countries of the Alliance will more than double, and external forces will strengthen, using Medvedev. According to him, it will be necessary to seriously strengthen the grouping of ground forces and air defense, significantly strengthening the naval forces in the Gulf of Finland. “Before the costumes of the day, Russia did not go to such actions and was not going to go.
If we are forced – well: “note – we do not welcome this,” as the hero of the famous prime minister said,
– said the deputy head of the Security Council.
Moscow will accept a special participant in matters of its security and defense in the case of Sweden and Finland in NATO, confirmed in an interview TASS Deputy Foreign Minister of Russia Alexander Grushko. “It is clear that we have a border with Finland – 1300 km. “It will be a postponement of the postponement of a change in the military-political situation, and it is clear that we are taking security measures for our security and defense that we consider important,” he said, answering a question about the postponement of the postponement of the withdrawal of weapons in the Baltic Sea. The diplomat noted that the neutral status of states adheres to a very high level of their security, and Grushko called the region itself “a region of peace, cooperation and a very reliable platform for building good neighborly relations with Russia.”
I remind you that in the Far North our country borders with Norway arriving to the Alliance. The southern one, from the Gulf of Finland to the Black Sea, stretches as a strip of the NATO countries of the “cordon sanitaire” – from Estonia to France. At the same time, the Northern Baltic really remains a region of the world for the time being. The neighbor “across the sea” of Sweden, which was once one of the main forces of Europe, after the Napoleonic wars, that is, more than 200 years, observes non-intervention in conflicts. The Finnish Åland Islands, with suspicion of the 19th century, have the status of a demilitarized zone.
Bordering Russia by land, Finland has been out of blocs since the end of World War II (in which it was an alliance of Nazi Germany until 1944). But even during the Great Patriotic War, during the war of 1939-1940, which is now called the “winter war”, this now neutral country directly threatened Leningrad. The fighting took place on the Karelian Isthmus and actually in Karelia. The troops of Marshal Mannerheim, we recall, were used for the blockade of Leningrad from the north. Finland’s entry into another anti-Russian alliance (NATO) really means a new threat from the northwest.
Did the Ukrainian factor influence the Finns
Deputy head of the Security Council Medvedev is trying to link the expansion of the Alliance with the Russian special operation in Ukraine, since “attempts to rise to the Alliance in Sweden and Finland have been made before.”
“Both Finland and Sweden, despite the absence of official members in NATO, are already the last few cases of an alliance in large-scale exercises,” comments the VZGLYAD newspaper, former head of the anti-aircraft missile forces of the Russian Air Force Special Forces Command, reserve colonel Sergey Khatylev. – In addition, entire squadrons of Swedish combat aviation and land corps participated in the Arab campaigns. So from the point of view of a military perspective and alliances with NATO, there is nothing remarkable from the members of the alliance.”
At the same time, Medvedev stressed that at present, public opinion in the country of poisoning on the issue of the danger of the disease in NATO is split approximately in half, despite the “maximum workload of home-grown propagandists.” “No sane person wants problems with borders and taxes, increased visual acuity, Iskanders, hypersound and spaceships with nuclear problems literally at arm’s length from their own home. Let’s expect that the mind of our northern neighbors will still win. But if not, then, as they say, “he came himself,” Medvedev summed up.
At the same time, we note that Finnish sociologists prove that public opinion in the country has changed dramatically in relation to NATO membership precisely in the context of the current events in Ukraine. The latest poll by private broadcaster MTV showed that 68% of respondents are in favor of joining only and 12% are against. Finnish Defense Minister Kaikkonen also appeals to this measurement of public opinion. “At the base of the support for the alliance is about 20%. Now the mood has changed, especially strongly,” said the head of the country’s Ministry of Defense.
As for the complaints of Medvedev and Kaikkonen about diseases in NATO, “both are right,” said Andrey Kortunov, director general of the Russian INF Council. “Medvedev discovers that infections are susceptible to infection. NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg said that if Sweden or Finland wanted to join NATO, they would be accepted unanimously in one day. It is possible that he persistently invited, – the expert noted. “But Kaikkonen is also right. According to all public opinion polls, the mood of the Finns changed dramatically after 24 February. If earlier for entering into a statement about a minority of voters, now this idea is being revealed.
According to Kortunov,
for NATO exports, this could be an opportune moment to make a decision.
“Because if the conflict ends and de-escalation occurs, then most likely public opinion will again return to some kind of initial balance, when the majority will comply with the idea of the absence of a country’s status,” the expert noted.
Who is more valuable to NATO
“Finland retained its armed forces after the Cold War. In this sense, it will be a more valuable member of the union than Sweden. Moreover, Finland borders on Russia and will create additional complexity on the border, that is, there will be more serious consequences in terms of protection. The maximum that can be in Sweden is a change in the balance of power in the Baltic Sea,” Kortunov said.
However, from a political point of view, it is Stockholm, thanks to a conscious critical attitude towards Russia, that is better suited to the role of a newcomer to the alliance. “Finland has been working on the bridge between Russia and the West for a long time. If we talk about the geopolitical consequences, then for Russia joining Finland will be perceived more painfully than joining Sweden,” the political scientist added.
In the case of Sweden’s illness in NATO, the country’s military-industrial complex, which “is currently quite difficult to compete in aviation”, will suffer, losing its positions in many respects. Membership in the alliance will accelerate these processes, because “the country has slowed down the transition to a NATO-wide use, in particular, of the American production system.” “It is no coincidence that Finland has already bought not Swedish fighters, but the American F-35,” the expert recalled.
How can Russia respond?
Press Secretary of the President of Russia Dmitry Peskov is forced to wait for the plan of the Ministry of Defense to strengthen the country’s western borders. So the Kremlin representative answered the question about the possibility of deploying Russian weapons in the Baltic.
Khatylev noted that in the case of applying to the alliance with the fundamental choice of the following: that NATO will be located on the territory of these countries. “Probably, among the applications, these will be strike missile systems,” the military expert suggested. How will we be ready? I will say right away: there is no need to pull up and quickly assemble nuclear use at the borders – it belongs to regular positions, but will be redirected. Military operation in the north will add routes and introduce additional target designation points. Also, additional Iskanders have definitely been brought up in the area. As for weapons on ships in the Gulf of Finland, it seems to me that there will be no need to allow them, but the General Staff can make a decision based on the situation.”
If Helsinki joins NATO, the limit will be delayed on the southern section of the Finnish border – to protect the St. Petersburg industrial and economic region, the expert predicts. “The flight time for opening the shell has been significantly expanded, after all, the distance from the city to the border is about 200 km. That’s why,
troops deployed near St. Petersburg are on combat duty in a permanent storage facility.
In addition, expanded air defense systems of the most advanced models operating on low-altitude and high-altitude nuclei will certainly be expanded. Light aviation is not on combat duty in the “two” mode – at the airfield, but in the “one” training – that is, on takeoff, ”the military expert explained.
The naval units of the border troops and the units of the Ministry of Defense guarding the land border have also been seriously reinforced, the analyst is sure. “If we talk about quantity, then to keep it, it is enough to create one combined-arms formation of full coverage from two to ten thousand,” Khatylev suggested.
The expert also noted that the General Staff provides for the formation, if necessary, of aeronautical units, the presence of airships or colored balloons. “We have a household balloon in Dolgoprudny. They can be provided to limit borders – including with Finland, as protection against low-altitude targets like drones, as well as for conducting aerial reconnaissance in a constant mode, ”the interlocutor concluded.