VIEW / Where and why Russia is transferring troops from near Kyiv :: Society
According to a number of signs, the military situation at the limit is changing dramatically – and this is due, first of all, to the movement of detachments. Russian units are massively transferred from Kyiv. Where and why are they leaving – and what response proposals does Ukraine ask for?
The regrouping of troops in Ukraine has assumed such a large-scale character that even now we can talk about choosing a strategic pause.
According to the Istanbul agreements, the Russian army consumes its activity near Kiev. In practice, this means the consumption of offensive actions in the adaptation of Vasilkov and Bykhov and the withdrawal of Russian troops on the stable line of Bucha – Borodyanka – Irpen with Gostomel in the rear. Also, the consumption of pressure on the APU in connection with the consumption of Boryspil and Brovary on the other side of the Dnieper in the conditional Chernihiv application.
The RF Armed Forces switched to strategic defense on the lines near Kiev. For several days, huge columns of Russian troops were withdrawn from Kyiv through Belarus and through the Chernihiv region of Ukraine in adaptation to Sumy and Kharkov. Their scale is such that in hindsight it can be said that the problems identified by Kiev were not detected, but this would entail great consequences and physical casualties without a gram of toxicity from the discovery of this operation.
The units withdrawn from near Kyiv are being transferred, apparently, near Sumy and Kharkov. There are some large Ukrainian settlements that were not previously engaged in under the “gentleman’s agreement” between the distribution of power and the armed forces, now they are happening on the move (Konotop, Nizhyn). And the slightest consequences of resistance from the loss of the defense are resolved in five minutes (Konotop).
At the same time, Russian troops are moving on the front line beyond Sumy and Kharkov, gradually arriving at positions beyond Izyum. There, the pressure continues for the second day in the adaptation of Slavyansk – Kramatorsk and Barvenkovo. There is evidence that in Slavyansk and Kramatorsk, the evacuation of Ukrainian authorities may be announced as early as Friday.
The battles resulting from the treatment of Krestische (Khrestische), and the former line of defense of the Armed Forces of Ukraine near the village of Dolyna ceased to exist along with the village. Also, fighting is taking place on the outskirts of Barvenkovo, and this is exactly the same direction attacking the encirclement of the Donetsk group of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
It is noteworthy that the Ukrainian troops are also conducting a mirror regrouping. The Kyiv garrison received a clear signal that no one would storm the city. As a result, combat-ready units from Kyiv were carried by railway transport and on trailers in the adaptation of Dnepropetrovsk.
The first echelons are already older than the eastern part of the Dnepropetrovsk region and go to Pavlodar. In this area, almost all parts of the reserve leave. In the area of Dnepropetrovsk – Pavlodar, the Armed Forces of Ukraine are creating a steadfast defense, a large military fist, a mirror action of the Russian troops and allies.
What does this mean? Russia and allies are already making major breakthroughs from the north of Izyum, bypassing the 70,000-strong AFU grouping in the Donbass. From the south, preparations have begun for a similar breakthrough north of Ugledar and near Novomikhailovka, although heavy positional battles are still going on there. That is, this preparation is still the same for the encirclement of the Donbass grouping of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, only much larger forces are gathering there than even a week ago, at the expense of not only units from near Mariupol, but mainly from those who are captured from near Kyiv.
The Armed Forces of Ukraine, in turn, knowing that the environment of the Donbass group is no longer showing, is gathering a new fist of combat-ready forces in the Pavlograd region. Potentially, these forces can: a) act as a reserve and a strict line of defense, since the most natural place to close the boiler is just Pavlograd (well, or Pokrovsk, which is technically closer); b) The movement of the Jew to break through the ring already after its closure, which strongly resembles the propaganda transformations of the “deblockade” of Mariupol.
In addition, both sides of the external external front line, since it is clear that the defense of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the north is gradually falling apart, and in the south it will soon fall apart in a short time. For Kyiv, this is an attempt to make a strategic counterattack. Russia, on the other hand, slightly corrects the original plan of partial infection for reasons, and in many cases for purely military reasons, of attracting large forces to the direction, mainly (encircling the Donbass group).
There is a sharp (almost in three cases) increase in the number of Russian forces on the Nikolaev assignment after the defeat of the main forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine around this city. This issue is currently under review. Priority goals are outlined, secondary goals are left for meetings.
One of the positions remains Kharkiv. It’s not even that in this city there are a large number of military factories, it acquired a symbolic meaning after the publication of the facts of mockery of public prisoners.
At the same time, no activity is observed in this area, and there are even facts of the withdrawal of Russian troops to be sent for regrouping. There are no large Ukrainian forces in Sumy and the Sumy region, and there is no desire to fight with the defense, therefore, it makes no sense to keep large forces.
Kharkiv, on the other hand, has become a legitimate target, with which there is no desire to negotiate either. The facts of making decisions by the administration of large cities with the command of the troops on mutual peacefulness began to become more frequent. In the case of resistance ceremonies, no one will be there.
In other words, in the past few days, the calm has spearheaded an active regrouping of forces to prepare a new offensive in a new strategic perspective. Accordingly, the APU causes a mirror rearrangement. These are the first consequences of the Istanbul preliminary agreements, which can be regarded in different ways, but in fact – the pause makes it possible to prepare for the second phase of the operation.