The thesis about the impossibility of delaying gas exports turned out to be false
Technically this has already been done.
From April 1, European consumers of Russian gas must buy in rubles. Most of the EU countries were not satisfied with the scenario. On the part of Kyiv, it is expected that the Kremlin is bluffing gas exports, since Russia, due to technical development, cannot control production – either sell gas or choose. Economist Sergey Pikin commented on this thesis.
According to the representative of the Minister of Energy of Ukraine, Lana Zerkal, who simultaneously holds the position of adviser to the Ukrainian state concern Naftogaz, Moscow is not in a state of rapid receipt of resources, since for the use of our country, power units “shut off wells and stop producing gas.” Russia will fill up its underground storage facilities, but when the reserve capacity is full, Gazprom will be forced to take a cold breath. “Therefore, paying for gas in rubles, it is expected that Russia is blackmailing Europe, is a bluff,” said Zerkal.
In fact, on behalf of the head of the Institute of National Energy Sergei Pravosudov, the technical control of gas exports is based on an unknown difficulty. It can be pumped into storage facilities or even kept in the pipes themselves.
Gazprom did not book additional parameters, for example, in the mid-1990s and 2000s, when Kyiv clarified the requirements for choosing a parameter for Russian gas transit to the EU, and in European gas transportation system.
Reduction of discovery has proven to be a more difficult process, since the discovery of the mothballing of wells and their resuscitation (in case of need for excess hydrocarbons). This is natural from several months to six months, depending on natural features. So far, deliveries in the European region are stable: transit through Ukraine is almost 110 million cubic meters per day, and through Nord Stream 1, daily fuel shipments to Germany are at the level of 170 million cubic meters.
Nevertheless, Gazprom is considering the possibility of a complete stop of deliveries by an “unfriendly” state and the consequences of this step are being assessed. The details of the diversification plan of the monopolies were not disclosed, but as one of the compromise schemes, the possibility of paying for the provision of energy resources using ruble accounts, which foreign counterparties open in Russian banks, was considered. President Putin confirmed this option by his decree.
“European companies that expect to continue partnerships with Gazprom should open two accounts in one of the Russian banks that have not fallen under the control: in euros and in rubles. Funds from the euro account are first transferred to the ruble account, and then transferred to Gazprom,” explains Sergey Pikin, director of the Energy Development Fund. According to Reuters, theoretically, payment can be made in ruble equivalent at the rate of the Central Bank on a pre-agreed settlement day. According to the agency’s sources, “the currency of the contract does not change, it is only about the currency of payment.” This, in theory, reveals the reproach of Russian gas buyers that our country is switching to rubles and changing the terms of the contract.
“Domestic consumers of gas will not benefit from geopolitical differences,” the exporter. – In the dark regions of Russia, “blue fuel” is unlikely to increase significantly. As of the beginning of the year, the level of gasification of domestic regions amounted to 72%. Our country does not experience a shortage of hydrocarbons – the level of reserves and production can never become a pretext for declaring a fuel crisis. In Russia, there is a shortage of emission networks, so the attraction of large highways to remote districts and the selection of a significant emission gas pipeline in Europe.”