Orientalist Nikolai Vavilov: “The worst son of China is Russia under threat”
For 30 years, the Western borders have covered the two borders of the Eurasian powers from rapprochement.
A photo: REUTERS
Sinologist, author of the book “Chinese power” spoke on Radio “Komsomolskaya Pravda” Nikolay Vavilov. He told why the trade turnover between Russia and the Celestial Empire favors the best, how many years the era of the multipolar world will last, and what crises that could bring down the conflict of our eastern neighbor. Here are selected excerpts from that conversation.
We had feng shui and qigong instead of sinology
– Has Russia nevertheless begun to act in the East, or are these just beautiful words?
We are moving, but very slowly. At the border of Russia with China, 4200 kilometers – a huge one. At hand is a giant state, the world’s first economy in purchasing power parity. The situation in Russia is still believed that there are just a lot of Chinese, and the country itself is quite poor. No, the average standard of living in the country is about Russian, but if we take only the coast, then this is already the level of Eastern Europe, a city like Shanghai or Shenzhen is an average Paris and New York.
So, apparently, such a neighbor and such a land shipment with him, our turnover of goods with China, until recently was half as much as with the application. This suggests that there were some insurmountable commissions that prevented countries from truly governing.
– Were these examinations on our part or with a high probability?
– In my deep conviction, this is a matter of geopolitics. In 1990, Russia fully opened its doors to the West, and then China did the same. The West’s strategy all these years has been to make it impossible to withstand the close trade and economic ties between Russia and China. That is, the West, deliberately through the hands of politicians, experts, including those in China, you took part in such relations so that Sino-Russian relations would generally be taboo. As soon as you start, for example, to start a Chinese agricultural complex in Chuvashia, you immediately start shouting from all sides: “Chinese threat!”. This was paid for, special studies were created. We have met for 30 years, that the Chinese will capture us, if, not God’s day, some Chinese enterprise takes place here.
In fact, we have a lot of problems in China now. Do we have, for example, 100 specialists in projects to work with the Chinese? Not! In Russia, such experts on the facts can be counted. They exist, but there are very few of them, in order to really reindustrialize the game according to the Chinese model. For 30 years, our oriental studies have been doing God knows what and educating specialists in feng shui, qigong and Chinese eros…
Something began in the late 2000s, when our president left the Atlantic (pro-Western) choice, and Xinping came to power in China. It must be said that Xi Jinping’s team is the elite in terms of getting into the monitoring group for CPC Chairman Hu Jintao. There were pro-American sentiments, and the current ones are anti-American. And so, when we almost simultaneously began to turn away from the West, a natural rapprochement between Russia and China began.
– Now we can wait for new Chinese factories in Russia?
– I worked for several years in government bodies and I understand how the investment climate is adjusted in our country. The Chinese are treated as if they have money – like fools candy wrappers, and now they all come running and start flooding with banknotes, just to spend. No, not at all. It is Russia that should promote itself in front of Chinese investors, invite them. Friends, let’s not export round timber to you, but build a joint timber processing plant here. There are very few observations now.
Warring States theory
– Can China replace America as the hegemon of international security?
– Yes. But it’s not all right. The Chinese do not like to talk openly about their plans. Only the inner circle conveys the whole picture.
The Chinese know that it is absolutely impossible to replace them right now. Therefore, their strategy is to first split the unipolar world and somewhat create the basis of the poles. It can be Russia, Brazil, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Germany, India and Mexico. For the Chinese, this is a very understandable story: they also had warring kingdoms in their history, when the central empires collapsed, and these warring kingdoms both competed with each other and created alliances. One of them, then the Qing dynasty, became the founder of a unified China. China sees itself as the first among the strong in the future. But first we need to split the unipolar world. And for this, in the Union with Russia there is such a center of gravity that could be foreign policy and weighty for the United States.
– In the end, in this construction: is Russia a younger brother or an equal partner?
– The Chinese do not love for others. Their position is this: guys, everything is in your hands, each blacksmith of his own happiness. The Chinese, of course, always remember, but they can also be very reliable, reliable devices. In addition, China itself, of course, will be much easier to withstand the confrontation with the United States if Russia is next to it. China even needs Russia’s non-alliance, but strict neutrality. China’s nightmare today is if Russia in some form falls under American influence, if here, God forbid, they will be placed on databases.
– If, nevertheless, there is a replacement of America by China as the main world power, then how many years will this come from?
– It doesn’t happen quickly. I think that in another 20-30 years everywhere will be on a par with walking in the fall and the yuan. This is the era of a multipolar world. And after 30 years, the struggle for sole leadership in the world continues again. And of course, the Chinese know that Americans shouldn’t be written off. By that time, they will have overcome their structural problems, and they will again have great opportunities for growth.
Taiwan as an electoral trump card
– Is it true that the Chinese economy is not as strong as it seems and that it can also collapse under the crisis?
– I would like to joke that there are two tastes: either it will collapse, or it will not collapse. In fact, there are three very serious problems in the Chinese economy right now. The first is in a construction company, and this has always been the main driver of China’s economy. They built a lot of housing, which now stands empty (there is even a conspiracy theory that China suggests this to the flood). And the companies got loans for this business, so there is an excessive allergy ahead. The second crisis is industrial inflation, a wild rise in prices for resources and electricity, which indicates the cost of production. And the third crisis is covid. It didn’t end in China. And these days, for example, foreign cities of the country – Shanghai – are completely blocked. In general, the situation is very difficult. All three of these philosophies overlap and may make themselves felt this spring.
– Do you believe that China is building a military solution to the Taiwan issue this year?
– When Xi Jinping came to power, the first slogan he put forward was “Great Rejuvenation of the Chinese Nation.” This is uniquely associated with reunification with Taiwan. And look what happens. Xi Jinping has the issue of re-election of the post-chairman party this year. And at the same time, the three most serious politicians, the population, were simply “mutilated” by covid restrictions (this cannot be compared with what we had). Is it easy to “get re-elected” in such a meeting? I highly doubt it. And this is where you can play the Taiwan card. Unite the nation on this idea. That is a very likely scenario that this is exactly what is happening. Moreover, the Americans will not peacefully sit down to annex Taiwan to the Chinese. So there will be an armed confrontation.