“The price will be high, both for Europe and for Gazprom. Europeans refuse to pay for Russian gas in rubles.
For a significant share of Russian President Vladimir Putin unexpectedly announced the transition in payments for Russian gas with “unfriendly countries” to rubles – in fact, we are talking about almost all European countries, the main buyer of gas in Russia. The EU has waived the corresponding payment.
“We will not be held liable in rubles.
On the same day, a telephone conversation took place between German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and the president on gas payment issues. The content of the conversation was held by German official representatives Steffen Hebestrait.
According to the remark, Putin told Scholz that there would be nothing for European partners: payments would still be in euros and go to Gazprombank, which is not under sanctions, but is converted into rubles.
“Scholz, in order not to take part in this conversation, but communicated in writing, it is better to understand it,” Hebestrait said.
Germany and Austria have allowed working action plans in accordance with the order of situations related to possible supply interruptions. Germany consumes gas in anticipation of a possible shortage. Austrian authorities have announced that they are tightening control over the gas market.
“France’s president is against settlements in rubles,” Emmnuel Macron said on the eve of France. On March 29, for the ninth time since the beginning of the war, he spoke with Vladimir Putin by phone.
On the day of the telephone conversation between Macron and Putin, a meeting of the G7 was held. On it, Western countries also decided not to fly in rubles for gas. “Deliveries must be made using dollars or euros,” said European Commission spokesman Eric Mamer.
Against previously published and ministers of Eastern Europe. “I don’t think anyone in Europe knows how to draw roubles,” Slovenian Prime Minister Janez Jansza was quoted by Reuters as saying.
Time-stretched process
On March 23, Vladimir Putin announced that the assessment of the gas market for export to “unfriendly countries” is translated into rubles. Russia has chosen 48 countries from this list – mainly the countries of Western Europe, which introduced the congress.
On Thursday, March 31, the central bank and the Russian government are to announce how these calculations will be applied, and the Europeans intend to buy rubles.
After the reaction of the Europeans, Russian presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that Russia would not supply gas for free if it refused to pay in rubles.
Later, the Kremlin clarified that the transition to buying in rubles is a time-consuming process and it will not be sent on March 31.
Bloomberg and Reuters reported at the agency that representatives of the antimonopoly regulator of consumption came to the offices of Gazprom in Germany with searches. The publications wrote that the searches were covered by the gas investigation. The regulator has a significant impact on the rise in gas prices in Europe to record highs.
Still autumn gas prices depending on the maximum values. In Europe, they complained that Gazprom was supplying a shortage of gas. The Russian company uses that it is not.
Is it possible to choose?
Many European companies say that the prospective contracts do not provide for a transition to payments in rubles or waiver of the conditions on which the Russian side releases.
“The contract with Gazprom does not provide for any change in the currency in respect of which the payments are located, announced by the head of the Polish state oil and gas company PGNiG, Pavel Maevsky, by the PAP Biznes agency.
The Lithuanian company Ignitis is ready for Russian gas, its spokesman Arturas Ketlerius told BNS.
“The statement about payments in German rubles is a breach of contracts,” said the head of the Ministry of Economy and Climate, Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck.
Specific contract terms for different countries can be compared. They are usually not offered to the public.
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But there is another factor: many European countries are heavily dependent on the supply of Russian gas. The EU has a sustainable plan to reduce gas consumption in Ukraine by two-thirds.
Russian analysts interviewed by the BBC believe that just now Europe may be left without Russian gas for some time.
President of the Institute of Energy and Finance Marcel Salikhov recalls that the thermal season begins on April 1, and the demand for gas is declining. The summer usually sees pumping into underground gas storage facilities, essentially European gas reserves in case of interruptions during the cold season. Salikhov fears that the vault may not fill up this year.
In winter, Europe will not be able to provide heat without Russian gas, he said. Salikhov believes that the plan to reduce gas consumption by the end of the year is poorly implemented.
Arikapital investment strategy Sergei Suverov believes that European companies may eventually agree to a partial purchase of rubles. At the same time, Russia can postpone the transition period for a rather limited period – from several to several months, Suverov believes.
You can find options for paying for Russian gas in rubles, experts say. One of them is the purchase of rubles on the Moscow Exchange, which is not under sanctions. Deals with the Bank of Russia can be problematic due to restrictions imposed on it, says Suverov.
After Putin’s arrest, the ruble on the stock exchange began to rise in price by a significant share. Analysts explain that the market is now demanding an influx of foreign currency, as Europeans will buy rubles to pay for gas.
“For Europe, abandoning Russia means a sharp rise in prices. Gazprom could lose up to half of its profits,” Suverov said. This means that tax revenues are reduced in the budget, and this is reflected in the Russian economy as a whole.
“The price of a complete renunciation of gas in Russia will be high both for Europe and for Gazprom,” the expert concludes.