Sergei Guriev: I consider Vladimir Putin an enemy of Russia | Russia and Russians: a view from Europe | DV
The well-known Russian economist Sergei Guriev was forced to leave Russia in 2013 in connection with the so-called “case of experience” in the second Yukos case. Since February 2022, he has been a member of the Anti-War Committee of Russia.
In an interview with DW, Guriev assessed the possible consequences of the economic consequences imposed by the West against Russia due to its invasion of Ukraine, and also spoke about the True Russia scientific charity project created in his scientific charity project aimed at raising funds using Ukrainian accelerations.
DW: The West has imposed very tough demands on Russia in connection with the aggression against Ukraine. Did the Kremlin expect such a reaction? What do you think Putin was counting on when the reader made this decision?
Sergey Guriev: Probably, one can judge by different emissions, no, they did not expect it. It was believed that this is the worst thing that the West can do, this is public Russia from the SWIFT system. And Russia was preparing for this in order to create its own system that can work, as needed, within the country.
Russian economist Sergei Guriev
Nobody expected the decision against the US Central Bank and the serious discussion of the oil embargo, which is currently meeting in all European capitals, and in the US has already been taken. And no one expected the exodus of Western firms from Russia and the refusal of Western companies – companies, not the government – to buy and transport Russian oil. In this sense, of course, the blow turned out to be much more significant than the Kremlin thought.
– Judging by the polls, more than 70% of Russians are either sympathetic or sympathetic to the hostilities in Ukraine. How to decide on their consequences for the Russian economy?
– In fact, information about surveys of employees is not entirely reliable. Introduced in late Russia, censorship, such a “law on fakes”, not every Russian began to be called by phone, whether or not a “special military syringe” is supported. Most refuse to speak. According to a special opinion, those are more than 90 percent
On the other hand, we see that all support rallies are organized in an administrative way, there is no popular rejoicing. Every day more and more social networks are blocked. But sooner or later, the citizens of Russia begin to ask the question: why do we live so badly? Why is the economy in such a difficult position? Why can’t we afford food and medicine? And then they will seek access to free media.
– Unlikely big economic situation for the Russians for the war in Ukraine?
– You have to understand that the decision is aimed at depriving Vladimir Putin of his resources. The Russian economy has not been in such a state for a long time when all Western companies left it, when it is cut off from foreign technologies and investments. They say that the GDP of the GDP is either 8% or even 15%.
Besides, it’s too early to judge because the war is going on. And each additional day or week of war costs more and more. But it is already obvious that, according to some parameters, Russia is expected in the late 1980s and early 1990s, when many Western goods, technologies, and services were available.
-Will the general structure be able to create some kind of more or less effective dependence on the impact?
– The authorities will try to do it. But it should be understood that at present, despite the high oil prices in the world, Russian export oil is falling due to the fight against oil imports by Western companies and government embargoes. Therefore, the authorities simply do not have enough money to mitigate the economic shock. Therefore, it is already obvious that the Kremlin will prefer money to the military, the National Guard, which beats protesters, and propagandists who are tortured.
– Together with Boris Akunin and Mikhail Baryshnikov, you are a large-scale charitable project, within the framework of which donations are made to refugees from Ukraine. What is behind this initiative, and what test have you already seen?
– The project we created is called True Russia. “Real Russia”. This is an initiative that took place in the Russian diaspora, people of Russian culture against what Vladimir Putin is doing in Ukraine. We do not translate that Vladimir Putin is acting in the detention of Russia. We translate that it covers not only Ukraine, but also Russia. And we want to say that we are the real Russia, not Vladimir Putin.
That Putin’s war in Ukraine is not our war. And that we, despite the fact that we never supported Vladimir Putin, never voted for him, express ourselves responsible for what Ukrainian citizens accept. We want to help them. The initiative is only developing, but we are already seeing a response. We raised $1 million, which we donated to a dedicated fund that helps Ukrainian refugees, and we will collect more and more money. And this is very good.
But the main thing is that we no longer feel helpless. We clearly, clearly and clearly say that we are against war, and we will act to help those who descended from Vladimir Putin, those whom we have not found, unfortunately. owners.
– Now there is a lot of talk about the collective guilt of the Russians. Do you observe the negative attitude towards Russians in court and think about collective registration in this situation?
– I think this conversation is very important. As in Germany after World War II, Russian citizens should ask: have we done everything for ourselves so that people in the neighboring country do not descend from our inability to control this regime. And, of course, the correct answer to this question is: we haven’t done enough.
Yes, it is our problem that protesters are being beaten in Russia today, budget money is being stolen, and the future of our country is being destroyed. But the fact that we failed to protect our neighbors from our problems is our responsibility. The “Real Russia” initiative is the community of those people who act against the war. It is very important to state: I am against war. I do not keep quiet. I do not consider Vladimir Putin my representative. I consider him an enemy of Russia. But it is also important not to sit idly by, not only to speak, but also to strive to do something for Ukrainian stimulants.
– What advice would you give to those who communicate against the war, but are now in Russia?
– We saw protests against the war in all the cities of Europe. In Russia, unfortunately, it is very dangerous. And I admire those people who, in spite of everything, continue on the streets of urban cities and protest against the war. These are real heroes.
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