Russia will meet 2025 next to Tropical Africa
The authors of the report said that by the end of 2021, 5.3 billion people in the world use mobile services, which is 67% of the entire population of the globe. According to their application, 5G continues to grow rapidly, with the total consumed being absorbed by 1 billion in 2022. “The momentum has been strengthened by a number of, including economic recovery from the pandemic, growth in sales of 5G phones, network coverage expansion and the general phasing out of the mobile function,” — the association says. The GSMA also reported that in 2021 the number of Internet subscribers worldwide reached 4.2 billion people.
Association experts in The Mobile Economy 2022 report note that in 2021 in Russia and the CIS countries, 49% of mobile connections were on fourth-generation networks, 34% on 3G, 16% on 2G and the rest on 5G. By 2025, the GSMA predicts that 4G networks will occupy 70%, the share of 3G will decrease to 17%, only 4% will live on the second generation network, and 5G will be 9%. Lower forecasts for the penetration rate of 5G networks by the GSMA were made only for a part of the late southern Sahara (Tropical Africa, Africa south of the Sahara), where the level of use of fifth generation networks by 2025 is 4%.
Alexander Sivolobov, Deputy Head of the NTI Competence Center based on Skoltech for wireless communication technology and the Internet of Things, said that if the GSMA forecasts are changed in dynamics, then in the new report of the Association, the reduced forecast for the share of 5G subscribers in 2025 from 14% to 9% . This decrease, according to the authors of the report, will be accompanied by deterioration in the construction of networks. At the same time, the penetration of smartphones in the new forecast increased to 86% (from 81%). “In our opinion, even on Friday, the indicator is achievable. The fact is that at such high distribution frequencies (9% and 14%), the distribution of smartphones with 5G support will sharply be sharp, and not network coverage. In 2023-2024, 5G, so that in 2025 it is quite realistic to achieve a share of 14%,” the expert is sure.
A source in the telecommunications market who is familiar with difficult cases (the beginning of special operations in Ukraine, approx. ComNews) a forecast of 70% LTE (4G) penetration by 2025 might seem convincing, currently dependent on the ability to supply equipment. “Making any estimates in uncertainty is a possible problem. , – the interlocutor of ComNews noted.
Speaking about the share of 5G networks at the level of 9% by 2025, the Skoltech economics expert said that, taking into account the import substitution tasks set for the department, this level is adequate. “And the fact that such an approach is necessary has already become obvious to everyone. The development of telecommunications into a digital load is a key and critical task for any country.
The press service of MegaFon noted that one of the priorities in the 5G issue for them remains the radio frequency spectrum in the range of 3.4-3.8 GHz. We continue to work in this direction. Without these frequencies, it is not possible to accelerate the development of new technologies in Russia. Internet speed,” the company said.
According to Alexander Sivolobov from Skoltech, there is no secret that the world is divided into two halves in the development of mobile networks. “The first is the countries of Europe and North America. You can also add to them the rich states of the Middle East, Australia, as well as some Asian countries, such as China, South Korea, Japan, India. (in exceptional cases, there are no 5G networks yet, but the country is rapidly consuming the slack). for LTE, and for 5G,” says the head of the NTI Competence Center.
It increases the level of cellular communication consumption in other countries. “Russia’s mobile infrastructure is one of the best in the world in terms of price/quality ratio: it uses a huge network, many subscribers can use LTE, but at the same time, our communication tariffs are almost the lowest. In accordance with the medium-term payment forecast – due to high population growth. . He collected the tasks facing the entire economy and the specific telecommunications board. According to him, it is imperative to stabilize the situation, necessary for the confident work of the important telecommunications sector at the transitional stage, start functioning in new conditions, create new production chains, expand technological reserves, develop and develop investment projects, and develop incentives to support industry consumption. .
The Skoltech expert believes that by 2025 the level of penetration of 4G networks in Russia can indeed reach the level of 70%. According to him, the main growth factor is the replacement of old phones with new ones with 4G support. “Also network operators can continue to upgrade, possibly 3G and 2G to support LTE.
Arguing about whether it is possible to immediately start working with 6G networks, bypassing the fifth generation, Alexander Sivolobov increased that in order to create a backlog for 6G, many teams of highly qualified specialists and infrastructure for research and development of the fifth generation of mobile networks are needed, and the number of technology users should be scaled resources, expand the scope of work. The network technologies of 2030 will rely on 90% 5G, including improved versions of the networks that are already being developed around the world. to 5G and then switch to 6G,” the expert explained.