Refugees, emigrants and rising prices: how the war in Ukraine is on Russia’s neighbors
- Grigor Atanesyan
- BBC
The Russian invasion of Ukraine was a major shock to the post-Soviet space with the storage sites of the USSR and has serious private and private consequences considered by the experts. The countries of the former USSR accept the acceleration of Ukrainian emigrants from Russia and reconsider the rise in prices and the shortage of goods, return the fall of the Russian economy. The future of their millions of citizens, labor observations in Russia, remains uncertain.
And the leaders of the states, elected allied treaties with Moscow, are trying to maintain frugality and not offend Russia.
An attempt at neutrality
Six countries of the former USSR have agreements on armed forces with Russia. Belarus, Armenia, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan cover Moscow through the CSTO defense bloc. Two days before the start of the war, the number of Moscow’s allies was replenished with Azerbaijan: the presidents of the two countries signed a declaration on the union region, which includes a clause on military assistance.
However, only Alexander Lukashenko publicly supported the Russian “special operation” as the Kremlin did. Belarus is the only one of the former Soviet countries that voted against the chief representative of the UN, who condemned Moscow’s aggression – and showed up in the company of Russia, Eritrea, North Korea and problems.
All rank-and-file Russian allies abstained in the vote, and their public leaders either do not comment on the war or choose an individual electoral group and call on the parties to dialogue. Apart from Lukashenka, none of them began to recognize the actions of Russia.
“We are in fact a small country. We do not have enough experience in fighting the conflict. Therefore, we must remain impartial ourselves,” Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov said of the Russian “special operation” speaking before the country’s parliament.
His words describe the mood in other capitals included in allied organizations with Russia. All countries of Central Asia are developed in their own way from the Russian economy or in the sphere of security. In addition to members in the CSTO, in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan – as well as in Armenia – there are territories of the Russian Federation; these three countries, together with the Russian Federation and Belarus, are also members of the Eurasian Economic Union.
“Behind the scenes of the British post-Soviet state, there will be no opportunity that will have the ability to have authority over their field of study and make them even more in line with its priorities,” said Caitlinson, an expert at the Royal Institute of International Affairs Chatham House.
However, if the authorities avoid to once again speak out about the war in Ukraine, then the opposition, civil society and the media reveal the choice of the parties to the conflict.
Official Baku took a neutral position, although at the beginning of this year, President Ilham Aliyev said that he supported the territorial territory of Ukraine. At the same time, the youth society and the opposition adhere to pro-Ukrainian views, and rallies in support of Ukraine were held in Baku.
In neighboring Armenia, actions were held both in support and in support of Russia – fairly few. In Bishkek and Almaty, anti-war accidents were dated for March 8. They also were not massive, but in Kyrgyzstan the court for the period of the ban on holding protests in the Russian embassy.
“The most important and expected consequence of the change in relations in each of the countries of the region is with Russia. Much depends on the outcome of the war and Russia’s position on its offensive,” says Joshua Kucera, editor of Eurasianet.
Refugees and emigrants
Among the CIS countries, the share of Ukraine increased, which Moldova took over, more than 300 thousand people crossed.
Many of them go further in Europe, but there are still more than 100 thousand Ukrainian accelerations in the country, and this is a big challenge for the economy, in which the authorities are counting on the EU. Another challenge is to stop trade in the port of Odessa, which was a hub for the entire region.
Moldovan President Maia Sandu considers a pro-Western politician, and after the outbreak of the war, she signed a request to enter the country in the investigation of Ukraine and Georgia. However, official Chisinau did not join the sanctions against Russia, and Sandu and other Moldovan politicians try not to comment on the war.
In Moldova, they are also cautiously watching the advance of the Russian army towards Odessa and the Moldovan border. The country’s armed forces number only a few thousand people – while in Transnistria, which is not controlled by Chisinau, there is a Russian military contingent with a similar number.
Old wounds in the Caucasus
In Georgia, many see the invasion of Ukraine as their own tragedy, drawing parallels to the 2008 Russo-Georgian war.
According to fresh opinion poll, 61% of Georgians expect more active support from their authorities for Ukraine. The country’s government officially declares solidarity with Kiev, but Prime Minister Irakli Garibashvili questioned the effectiveness of the use against Russia and said that his cabinet would not support it.
In these weeks, Tbilisi has become from the centers of development of Russian emigration. Journalists and activists who feared infection often went to the Georgian capital.
However, after the start of the wars, the rapidly growing Russians began to leave with condemnation or provisions awaiting the announcement of an alarm. According to the authorities, as of March 7, between 20,000 and 25,000 Russian citizens arrived in the country. This figure is likely to be much higher.
However, in Georgia, not everyone is happy with the new reports, even despite their oppositional views. Many Russians talk about the refusal of residents of Tbilisi to rent them because of their citizenship.
This attitude can be a high high level of Georgia’s solidarity with Ukraine, the threat of a 2008 war and dissatisfaction with the actions that may be caused.
Thousands of Russians have also left for Armenia since the end of February; they do not even need a foreign passport to enter my country – internal ones are enough.
The Ministry of Economy of Armenia even opened a channel to present how business is represented in the country – and stressed that it is equally ready to help Ukrainians, Russians and Belarusians.
Ordinary Armenians are also willing to accept Russians, but Yerevan residents complain that the influx of Russian expats is driving up property prices. About 7 thousand Russians live in the country.
At the same time, for the Armenians of Ukraine, they became a painful warning about the recent war in Nagorno-Karabakh, which ended in defeat for Armenia. The region, mostly returned under the control of Azerbaijan, however, was affected by the atmosphere, which turned out to be part of the Armenian population in their homes.
Now hostilities in Ukraine take place in the event of a new aggravation in Karabakh.
Since the beginning of March, there has been an increase in cases of violations of messages about the release of messages. New attacks fix both sides, and appoint intermediaries confirmed death one Armenian soldier.
Due to damage to the gas pipeline, tens of thousands of people live without heating in sub-zero temperatures.
The fate of labor migrants and the shortage of goods
IT industry employees, entrepreneurs, freelancers and Russians in other professions move to Bishkek and Almaty after the war, but this is not the main consequence of the war in Ukraine for Central Asia.
Much assessment is the fate of the population of countries in Russia and the consequences of such cases of decline and coverage. According to experts, the total number of sightings from the CIS countries in Russia may reach eight million people, and most of them are citizens of Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan.
The collapse of the ruble has hit their pockets. Often migrants in Russian cities are the only breadwinners for their families in their homeland, and not only in Central Asia, but also in Azerbaijan, Armenia and Moldova.
“Disadvantaged men and women returning to a country with high unemployment and excessive inflation – a region reeling from the catastrophic effects of the coronavirus pandemic,” says Chatham House’s Kate Mallinson. She expects that health measures can solve the social problems of vulnerable repression.
In addition, in all CIS countries, food prices. Russia unexpectedly exports grain to the country of the Eurasian Union, which may lead to a shortage of flour. The war may indicate the availability of medicines – many of them in the CIS countries were imported from Russia and Ukraine.
“The rubles earned by migrants were devalued several times. Russia is the main supplier of consumers, flour, sunflower oil, pasta and sugar to Armenia. This has already caused panic among consumers. , sugar, butter,” says Yuri Manvelyan, editor-in-chief of epress .am
The long-term consequences of the war in Ukraine for the post-Soviet space is very difficult for the editor, but it is already clear – this is the biggest shock for the region in recent events, Joshua Kucera told Eurasianet.
“I think that it would not be an exaggeration to call this the main event in the development with the temporary collapse of the USSR. And it is obvious that if you identified someone in 1991, how it all ended, they would not be able to understand,” he said.
Nina Akhmeteli, Ilya Barabanov, Maharram Zeynalov and Nargiza Ryskulova participated in the preparation of the material.
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