Beets of domestic assembly: Will Russia feed itself without options from abroad
Food in Russia is mostly its own. Even for vegetables, according to the Ministry of Agriculture, we provide ourselves with 85%. True, not only domestic aircraft, but also meat, milk and greenhouse tomatoes are not without imported “details”. Soon everything will rise – and hello, empty shelves. Are they slandering?
AND INSTEAD OF HEART – IMPORTED MOTOR
Let’s start with the good. According to the general opinion, over the past couple of years, the foreign component in domestic products has been felt too painfully. Back in 2019, analysts preferred KP that if, for example, we are banned from importing breeding young animals, then all domestic poultry and pig breeding will stop in a few months.
But the principles of food security are slowly working. The general scheme is this. If the system of greenhouse farms has been almost completely destroyed in the country, there is no point in producing our own tomato and cucumber seeds on an industrial scale. But as soon as money began to be invested in greenhouses, a revival of seed production for them appeared and was economically stimulated. The example is conditional, but shows how everything works. True, not necessary.
“If we count everything in a circle, the average import in domestic products is currently at least 12%,” says Anatoly Tikhonov, head of the laboratory of economics and industrial organization of the Federal Scientific Center for Biological Systems and Agrotechnologies of the Russian Academy of Sciences. – It’s not fatal, but unpleasant.
The main trouble is that these average “at least 12%” are unevenly distributed across different areas: somewhere, almost everything is domestic, and somewhere else, 50-70% is imported. The biggest problems are with the seeds of some crops (not wheat – it is quite domestic) and agricultural machinery (see “Only numbers”).
– In recent years, the state has turned its attention to seed production and genetics. And including the “landing” of the eastern seed producers, – says Anatoly Tikhonov. – They began to approach seed-growing centers, large plants in our southern regions. With folk animal husbandry, about which they also talk a lot, things are better. A fairly strong Soviet school in this area was not completely destroyed, so it’s easier to recover here.
And what about tractors, combines, seeders, winnowers? I will not enumerate the mass of Russian factories (the order of six times the presence), which are immediately taken into account. But the common problem is that this entire agricultural park has some imported parts. For example, a motor. There are, of course, completely “own” tractors. Yes, but it is hardly worth it to rejoice.
– Our machine and tractor fleet on the farm is slightly less than half, it still consists of old Soviet equipment, – Tikhonov “calms down”.
“IF THERE IS NO PACKAGING SANCTIONS”
Food processors have less optimism. After all, almost everyone works on imported line equipment and is now reconsidering what will happen to their service and where to buy new units.
– Every year, food raw materials worth more than $40 billion are imported into Russia, – Daria Akimova, head of the Ntech analytical research company, told KP. – The largest share of imported equipment, about 90%, is in the production of water and soft drinks. In the confectionery – 60%, for the production of chocolate all over the world they buy Swiss and German lines. But in the production of flour and sugary (jam, marmalade, marshmallows, etc. – Ed.) products, the share of Russian equipment has been growing in recent years.
“We are highly dependent on imports of packaging materials and a number of ingredients such as special and varied food products,” says Roman Shalimov, research director at Tochka Rosta. – Do you remember what the package of chips looks like? This is called a multilayer film – one on the outside, another on the inside. Here is one example. And according to the forecast, it accounts for from 10% to 30% in the price of products.
The doctrine of food security works.
A photo: Ekaterina MARTINOVICH
WHAT TO PREPARE FOR
The West did not declare food products against Russia.
“Even in the United States, exceptions were made for medicines and food, except for goods such as vodka and caviar,” Anatoly Tikhonov recalls. – And with the application we have a serious dependence in both directions. He is one of the most important buyers of our agricultural production, including wheat and vegetable oil. Therefore, I do not think that it will really come to a ban on the sale of seeds or agricultural machinery.
However, there are problems.
– What’s going on now? Something the president from Europe continues to produce, but 15 percent of the total mass remains, ”Dmitry Matveev, the Kabosh group of companies (an agricultural holding), shared with KP. – The problem is not with suppliers – They want to maintain relationships. Some transport companies are simply afraid to go to the territory of the Russian Federation. Plus the complexity of the calculations.
It is clear that this is not forever. Some chains will be repeated, some will change in strength, at least on the issue of price – the unaffordable dollar and euro rates.
– Close? No, we’re not going to, – says a friend who works in a firm that is engaged in wholesale purchases abroad for our pulp industry. – We are negotiating some replacements with the Belarusians. And some new acquisitions have already been discovered in Russia itself.
– In any crisis, sane forecasts can be made when the dust is reduced, – says Roman Shalimov. – And we are now in the stage of raising dust …
INSTEAD OF AFTERWORD
“Maybe at least now it will work quietly?”
In the story of one of the experts, a phrase about our native Rostselmash, whose equipment is widely distributed among foreign manufacturers, was hooked, but “one of the workshops is located in Canada.” Didn’t anything in this phrase seem somewhat … illogical to you?
Back in 2013, Konstantin Babkin, chairman of the board of the Rosagromash association (he was a member of Rostselmash), wrote a post on LiveJournal entitled “Why the tractor plant remains in Canada.” The text had the effect of an exploding bomb. There, Babkin really, on obvious facts and with all the figures, signed why, due to the Russian bureaucracy, interest rates on loans and stable domestic “special features”, the use of agricultural machinery turns out to be cheaper on the road of European America.
A lot has changed since then. Including “Rostselmash” received support from the state and its main centers are still in Russia (although a workshop has appeared in Canada). But the main question remains: without support from above and preferential subsidies, it is quite difficult to establish light production in our agricultural industry (and not only). You will drown in all sorts of problems and negotiations before you get back on your feet. And primarily because of this, and not because of the imaginary curvature of domestic producers, American combines drive on our fields, and they are sown with European seeds.
And now, oddly enough, a large number of entrepreneurs have hope: well, maybe now they will stop “mastering budgets for development”, trying to regulate and control everyone – but just let them work?
Only numbers.
A photo: Dmitry POLUKHIN
OPINION
What can be done to help farmers?
Sergei Lisovsky, member of the State Duma Committee on Agrarian Issues:
– The situation is different from 2014, when Western investigations did not affect the agricultural sector, but rather helped us. Anyway, this is a completely new situation. Of course, we will survive, but now the test will be of a completely different order. And the biggest problems will not be in the near future, when the assembly of equipment under construction and equipment begins.
How to support farmers? Our Ministry of Finance plays a game when it first wants to collect more taxes from everyone, and then calculate it. And accumulation is always from the evil one. There are always mistakes by officials, corruption schemes that lead to the loss of budget funds. Let’s take a more direct path – we will restore agricultural producers from part of the taxes. An effective measure would be exemption from foreclosure on property used in agricultural production. This will be money that will definitely go to the enterprise, and will not “hang” somewhere along the way.