Russia’s war with Ukraine: Putin miscalculated – but now he can hit harder
- John Simpson
- World Politics Editor
The resistance of the Russian army, entrusted to the Ukrainians in the first week of the war, far exceeds the expectations of President Vladimir Putin. However, we still find in the beginning – in the first place – an extremely painful and destructive war.
Apparently, Putin hoped that Kyiv took only a few days after the invasion of Russian forces. And he almost certainly expected that the countries of the West – frightened and disunited – would come to terms with the fact that Moscow had regained its “originally Russian” (according to Putin).
However, neither of these happened. Ukraine proved to be a tough nut to crack, and did not expect the West of Germany to be a particularly tough president than the Russian president was expected to be.
The Russian economy is already having serious consequences. China – Putin’s only friendly power – now seems to be suggesting that the West’s wrath could be turned against Beijing as well, hurting the economy’s high valuation. Beijing was quick to distance itself from the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
NATO’s position, on the other hand, can only get stronger. Now you can add neutral Sweden and Finland to the Alliance – for reasons of your own security. Putin started this war to decide whether to join NATO in Ukraine – as a result, a number of NATO countries on Russia’s northwestern borders may only expand.
Russian invasion in Ukraine
All of these are serious failures in Putin’s plan, due to his individual miscalculations. While on the road due to the coronavirus pandemic, Putin rarely met with advisers. And those who still met with you, apparently, against him only what he wanted to hear.
Now it is easy for him to look for new moves. Putin never backed down, failed. He will strike again – this time harder – and for this he has all the necessary means at his disposal.
The Ukrainian ambassador to the United States claims that the Russian army has already used a thermobaric weapon, which is popularly called a “vacuum bomb”.
(BBC note: such emissions spray a combustible aerosol in the pool, and then undermine the resulting gas cloud, strength large-scale explosion very high temperature; they have a high striking value at a relatively high value)
In cases like this, monitoring ambassadors exaggerate the facts, improbable things are reported, but the indisputable fact is that we have already seen Russian thermobaric missiles on their way to Ukraine. Analysts believe that their wider application is a matter of time.
Photographs that came under fire in Kyiv show traces similar to those fired by cluster bombs. Such emissions, when approaching the target, break up into many small “bombs”, rushing to everyone in the direction in the presence of terrible shrapnel wounds.
Cluster bombs are prohibited by the international convention of 2008, but Russia refused to sign this document, saying that it uses them in accordance with the INF Treaty with rights. Residents of Kharkov could argue with that.
Vladimir Putin has never been afraid to use highly dangerous weapons. he is believed to have personally authorized the use of radioactive polonium-210 to poison former KGB agent Alexander Litvinenko in London in 2006.
He most likely ordered the use of the Novichok nerve agent in Salisbury in 2018 to poison another defector, Sergei Skripal. Skripal survived, but another, random victim failed: Dawn Sturgess died by inflicting substances on her skin.
Putin, apparently, does not care about the threat to the lives of random people. The situations mentioned above were well planned in advance, they were found to have symptoms – as opposed to what we currently feel in an exacerbation. But the general principle is the same: if Russia’s interests are at stake, then the lives of world residents can be completely neglected.
If he is detained by President Putin of Ukraine, can he use nuclear weapons? This option cannot be completely ruled out, although most analysts believe that this is still a long way off.
Putin did warn that the events in Ukraine take place from outside the country, fraught with dire consequences – both for individuals and for history as a whole.
He also said that the feeling of a world in which there is no Russia does not make sense. However, it should be remembered here that in order for a nuclear war to start, the NATO command also had to miscalculate very seriously.
History may repeat itself: in 1939, Stalin attacked Finland, hoping to win the achievement in just a few days. However, Finland deployed a powerful defense – and the Soviet army lost a humiliating defeat. The fighting continued for more than 100 days: Finland lost part of its territory, but retained its independence.
At present, only a minor beginning of the conflict has been identified, and the fact that Ukraine is putting up strong resistance does not mean that its analysis will long withstand the onslaught of Russia.
However, the first round certainly ended well, and the response from the West was much stronger than many expected. First of all, the president himself is Vladimir Putin.