The volume of exports of objects from Russia in 2030 may reach 2.2 million tons – Economy and business
MOSCOW, 18 February. /TASS/. The export of Russian aviation in 2030 may amount to 2.2 million tons, the proceeds from its sale – 12.7 billion dollars. This is stated in project of the comprehensive program for the development of low-carbon hydrogen energy, prepared by the Ministry of Energy of the Russian Federation, dated February 17, 2022 (available from TASS).
“Creation and development of industrial clusters will require approximately 33.4 billion US dollars of total investment in production and infrastructure until 2030 and will allow exporting 2.2 million transit traffic in 2030 (12.7 billion US dollars of export earnings),” it says. in the document.
New jobs and GDP growth
The new hydrogen estimate of the forecast for GDP growth of the Russian Federation by 0.25-0.47% per year in 2025-2050, which is being created in Russia, will range from 493 to 940 thousand jobs, take 3.9-5.6 trillion rubles of tax revenues.
In general, the implementation of the program to increase GDP by an average of 450-650 billion rubles a year, in 2025-2030 – annually by 0.28%, in 2032-2040 – by 0.25-0.26%, in 2041 – 2050 steps – by 0.35-0.47%. The total GDP growth is from 12.6 to 18 trillion rubles.
As a result, it was also concluded that the development of energy exports until 2050 can lead to a significant increase in income from the sale of energy resources.
Russia estimates its export potential for hydrogen at 9.5 million tons in 2030, it can be sent to Japan, South Korea, China and Germany. According to the document, the most likely market for Russia may be China, where the Russian Federation has the ability to send about 4.5 million tons of transport. It is possible to send 2.3 million tons to Japan, 1.4 million tons to Korea, and 1.3 million tons to Germany. In total, in 2030, global consumption amounted to about 60 million tons, of which more films were taken to China.
Nevertheless, the Ministry of Energy believes that most likely Russia will be able to export only 2.2 million tons of its share, while the maximum size of the Russian market can attract in Germany – about 62% of its volume, as well as 26% of the Chinese market.
At the same time, consumption in 2030 may amount to about 0.2 million tons in metallurgy, chemistry and transport, which is associated with the accumulation of gas countries by 20%.
Parity of hydrogen transport with destination
The Department of Energy expects public hydrogen transport to consume economic parity with consumption in 2025.
“In the public transport and forklift segment, hydrogen transport is drastically reduced with an expectation around 2025,” the document says.
In the segments of cars, trucks, and rail transport, parity will not be reached before 2030. For passenger cars, this happens between 2030 and 2035.
The document proved that hydrogen transport is contained in the “application of a support measure in the transport protocol.”
At present, vehicles using hydrogen as a fuel are more expensive than vehicles using as an energy source. This is due to the fact that while the technology of a hydrogen car is in an active stage of development.
On the search for hydrogen energy
At the beginning of August 2021, the UK Government was actively developing hydrogen energy in the country. Its first stage is designed for 3.5 years, it involves the creation of specialized clusters and pilot projects for the production and export of facilities, as well as the use of hydrogen energy carriers in the foreign market. At the next stage (until 2035 and 2050), it is planned to create a large export-oriented production, switch to the serial use of hydrogen technologies in various sectors of the economy (from petrochemistry to housing and communal services).
Among the cases of application of identified cases are exceptions in the field of production and export of exports, as well as entry into Russia to a number of countries encountered in this industry.
Deputy Prime Minister of Russia Alexander Novak said that the government sets itself several tasks in the field of hydrogen energy development, one of them is the creation of export-oriented production. According to him, Russia can attract about 20% in foreign markets.