They aim at Russia, but will they hit China? Possible sanction against the transfer of the Russian Federation for Beijing
Tensions between Ukraine, Russia and NATO are worrying many countries, including those outside the Euro-Atlantic region. For example, as is usually observed in China, where support for Moscow has already unequivocally increased. At the same time, the PRC almost certainly belongs to the military-political aspect in this crisis, but can play an important role in the possible economic consequences.
At the end of January, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, during his conversation with US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken of the American economy, South America, refers to issues related to Russia in the field of security and their consideration.
“Regional security cannot be required to account for responsibility and international military alliances,” the minister appointed, calling Russia’s concerns mandatory.
The situation in Ukraine cannot but worry China
Keep a close eye on Ukrainian attention, as he, like Moscow, develops an uneasy relationship with the West. Especially from the USA. The anti-Chinese vector, which was set by the 45th US President Donald Trump, was also picked up by the current leader Joe Biden. In Washington, China and Russia are officially called the “major challenges” for the US, which means that the pressure on Beijing is very high.
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Moreover, China still has an unresolved issue with Taiwan. Just like Ukraine, the semi-autonomous island is currently receiving more and more American weapons. How NATO handles the situation with Ukraine will tell Beijing a lot about what to expect in the event of an escalation around Taiwan or in the South China Sea.
In addition, Ukraine is a country where China has its own interests. For example, the Chinese global initiative “One Belt – One Road” includes the Ukrainian commercial port of Chornomorsk. The stable trade market remains a trading partner of Ukraine, and Kiev is an independent supplier to China. By 2025, the parties plan to increase bilateral trade from $15.7 billion to $20 billion a year. In addition, China has invested in various Ukrainian infrastructure projects, including a new Kiev metro line.
The current crisis threatens to turn into sanctions for Russia
Despite the fact that in Russia and even in Ukraine they say that neither side is interested in escalating the investigation, the West continues to report a constant militaristic threat.
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Moreover, Washington, London and Brussels are actively working on the introduction of anti-Russian sanctions. They are promised to be used if Russia dies. However, there is no guarantee that they are not driven for some other reason. Or for no reason. Earlier, the chairman of the US Senate Foreign Affairs Committee, Robert Mendes (Democrat from New Jersey), said that some of the meetings discussed in the US Senate against the Russian Federation due to the situation in Ukraine could be introduced, even if a permanent meeting in the Western District does not take place. . .
Washington is not talking about specific measures, but judging by the initiatives of American legislators, they can seriously take up participation not only in Russia, but throughout the world. Possible restrictions relate to the banking and financial sectors, dollar conversion, which may lead to a drop in capital in the Russian market. The restrictions may include a ban on the export of vegetables and weapons, which will seriously affect the Russian meeting. The announced ban on exports to Russia may leave the citizens of the country even without some models of smartphones, tablets and TVs.
experts cannedthat all this threatens with tangible consequences – from rising prices for food and clothing to interruptions in pension products due to the collapse of the ruble and Russian markets.
accept close ties between Russia and China, take responsibility for Beijing
In recent years, Russia and China continue to develop relations within the framework of Treaty on Good Neighborliness, Friendship and Wealth of 2001. They are of great interest, including military cooperation. Chinese President Xi Jinping spoke to Russian President Vladimir Putin more than any other foreign leader last year. The Russian president himself called the relations between the two countries a model of cooperation in the 21st study. The last impetus for an even greater rapprochement between Russian and Chinese positions was the events of 2014, when the West began to impose the first mandate on Russia due to reunification with Crimea and the escalation of the conflict in southwestern Ukraine.
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Beijing, but from a technical point of view, relations with Moscow have become much deeper. Countries interact in the field of aerospace technologies, oil and gas industry, chemistry and aviation. Chinese state-owned companies are investing in Russian energy assets. There is a dynamic development of Chinese-Russian cooperation in the field of electronic commerce. The volume of trade between Russia and China in 2021 grew by 35.8%, reaching a record profit of $146.88 billion. Exports to Russia increased by 33.8% over 12 months (to $67.56 billion), the movement of the flow of goods in the opposite direction – by 37.5%, to $79.32 billion.
“There may be conclusions that Beijing is standing on the sidelines and watching possible events, but the rapprochement between China and Russia has accelerated, and their trade has doubled over the past five years,” shock former vice chairman of Goldman Sachs Asia Kenneth Curtis.
All this indicates that, unlike in 2014, new potential sanctions against Russia could cause great inconvenience to Beijing as well.
“China’s compliance with the American decisions against Iran and North Korea had an appearance because both Iran and North Korea have a small economy,” the report said. report American Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI).
It will depend on the PRC what influence can be attracted to the Russian Federation
Russia discovers that Russia imports and exports more goods from China than from any other country, possible restrictions on the Russian banking and financial system (in particular, disconnection from SWIFT) will hit bilateral trade. Therefore, China is invited to take a decision on bringing to justice as an alternative, or else to look for alternative participants in the meeting with the participation of parliamentary representatives.
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“If the West specifically allocates serious sanctions against Russia, then in the case of development in the Asian region, they can use the same leverage against China. in the FPRI study.
Countering sanctions could be a sharp transition of Russian-Chinese trade to alternative payment systems.
“We are moving on to currency losses, we will not completely move on, maybe this [санкции] somewhat speed up [процесс]”, – Andrey Denisov, Russian Ambassador to China, told TASS. According to him, various turns in the sanctions cases in no way hinder the development of Russian-Chinese trade and economic relations.
In addition, both Moscow and Beijing have spent a significant amount of money on the development of their payment systems, but so far there has been no opportunity to test them in a real crisis. If this mechanism works, then it can be used in trade with the continents, bypassing the United States.
This also applies to possible export restrictions.
The US also announces a possible restriction on the supply of semiconductors to Russia. This may be cut off by the high-end smartphones and tablets available to Russians that are available in America. Most of these devices are either assembled in China or manufactured by Chinese firms. This possible US export control on the models would also put the PRC company in a position to either comply with export restrictions or find a way around them.
“The PRC government can respond to export control measures. that in stock China looks like a country that produces technology and sells them only with the permission of Washington.
Miller also writes that China may increase the number of smartphone manufacturers in Russia. Thus, the PRC protects against American users and assemblers of smartphones. Although even in this case, the United States must respond to such actions.
Be that as it may, neither Beijing nor Russia is interested in an escalation in Ukraine, since both countries have their own interests. However, if the West really decides to make a promise regarding Russia, then China will be difficult to attribute to emphasized neutrality, in the event of side effects with Moscow.
Dmitry Belyaev