Rational grain: Russia immediately for a quarter of exports of wheat and barley | Articles
By the end of January, Russia sharply exported grain (wheat, barley, corn) abroad – by 25-30% in physical terms. This is stated in the analytical report of the Ministry of Agriculture, which has used data from the Federal Customs Service (FCS) since July. Izvestia got acquainted with the document. Experts note that over the past few years, grain exports from the Russian Federation have not decreased so significantly. But there are reasons: in agriculture this year (from July 1, 2021 to July 1, 2022) in the Russian Federation, the grain harvest decreased by 10%. Plus, agrarians are reluctant to sell raw materials for export: after the introduction of a floating duty, this became unprofitable. Withdrawal stocks that have arisen due to the withdrawal of its export may serve to include a stabilizing disease for the domestic market, the Ministry of Agriculture told Izvestia.
Farmers do not export
Australian Department of Agriculture analytical report “On the situation in the market of consumer goods (January 17-21)”. It says that in February 2021/22 (from July 1, 2021 to July 1, 2022), Russia controls grain crops – wheat, barley, corn and others. Izvestia got acquainted with the document. According to the operational data of the FCS as of January 20, 25.1 million tons of consumption were exported from the countries, although in the estimate of this volume it was higher by 24.7% – 33.4 million tons. Export of wheat for this season was 21 million tons (minus 24% for the observed years by 2020-2021), barley – 2.7 million tons (minus 32.3%), corn – 1, 1 million tons (minus 27.9% ).
The Ministry of Agriculture confirmed to Izvestia: since the beginning of the 2021/22 season, the export of main grain crops has already amounted to 25.5 million tons. This is 25% lower than the level of the last agricultural year. At the same time, Russia is one of the largest exporters concentrated in departments.
— Decrease in exports this agricultural year (floating export duty. – Izvestia), – said the ministry. – This mechanism at the global food level and the rush demand for food, in particular wheat, consumes the resources of domestic enterprises of the flour-grinding and baking industries. Moreover, maintain a stable level of domestic prices.
Moreover, stocks of substances that are formed on the market, taking into account the decrease in exports at the beginning of the season, can serve as a stabilizing allergy.added the ministry. Floating deal on the export act last year. This is 70% of the cut-off price, which needs to be changed depending on the situation.
The introduction of a damper interest rate on grain exports curbs the growth of prices for export trade taking place in the Ministry of Economic Development (MED). For example, the cost of wheat for farmers by January 27 increased by 10% compared to June 2, 2021, when the damper was introduced, the department told Izvestia. During this time, in the US, the futures price for production jumped by 23.7%, in France – by 31.5%.
As indicated in the MED, in January, the US Department of Agriculture calculated: in February 2021/22, wheat exports increased by 0.9%, corn – by 13.8%.
Beat anti-records
In the past few years, there has not been a significant drop in sales of export goods in Russia., Vice-President of the Russian Grain Union Alexander Korbut noted in an interview with Izvestia. For example, in the 2020/21 assessment, the Russian Federation set a record for grain exports: from July to January, the country exports just over 34 million tons. This was 25% higher than the figure for the previous agricultural year. There was a high demand for domestic products in the world: the main competitors – the application and Ukraine – reduced their supply. This spurred prices to rise, so Russia willingly sold grain to countries, experts explained. Prior to this, the peak point was in the 2018/19 dimension, when a little more than 32 million tons of flaws were exported abroad.
Alexander Korbut recalled that this fall, grain production in the Russian Federation is registered. In net weight, 120.7 million tons were harvested in Russia in 2021, and 133.5 million tons in 2020.
— The current situation may become positive for the domestic market, because more raw materials for the production of finished products may remain in the Russian Federationthe expert said.
Maybe, this will affect income from cereals, reducing it, but not finished productshe added. Producers of goods have become dependent – for example, packaging, logistics, and so on have risen in price, the representative of the mixture recalled.
Reducing export risks for the main buyers of our products – the Middle East, African countries. Australia and Argentina are expected to have strong grain harvests. Moreover, the damage from the supply of cereals on the world stage could push prices higher. Indirectly, this can be said in Russia, by raising the cost of the consumer within the country, Alexander Korbut noted.
The decrease in the harvest is an inevitable reason for the decline in exports, Andrey Sizov, director of the SovEcon analytical center, told Izvestiya. He suggested that against the backdrop of a significant increase in export earnings and a significant increase in prices for agricultural resources, they are in no hurry to increase export earnings.
According to SovEcon, agricultural producers in the southern part of the country this year are significantly slowing down the sale of grain. The south has record reserves, they exceed the previous ones by 68%, the expert added. He noted that one low export dependence on the Russian Federation is from the presence, which maintains relatively high world grain prices.