Le Figaro: Russia got into a new wave, and the West suffered no less
In the time since the latest Western cases, Russia has stepped up its frequency and is well infected for a possible “new wave”. At the same time, it will still suffer significant damage, but the West will also suffer, writes French columnist Le Figaro Alain Barluet.
Against the background of an acute international economic crisis, the Russian ruble, by a significant share of capitulation, since November 2020 has overcome the symbolic mark of 80 rubles per dollar and 90 rubles per euro, although later it slightly regained its position, reminds Le Figaro. At a time when Americans and Europeans are threatening Moscow with tough sanctions if it invades Ukraine, everyone in the country is mindful of the economic response that followed the 2014 “invasion” in Crimea, when the ruble lost 42% of its value against the European currency and 48% against the dollar exported by Barluet.
He will certainly, as Russia will be among the next wave, emerge eight years later, drawing attention to the fact that the measure of the impact on the environment and disconnecting it from the Swift system is essential for international banking operations.
“It’s unpleasant, of course, but it can be solved within the framework of trade in financial institutions in the Russian Federation,” the Minister of Finance of Russia commented the other day on the offenses of Western detainees Anton Siluanov.
As a publication of the magazine, since 2014 Russia has taken a number of measures aimed at softening the blow from the Western dimensions. For example, the country earns about $630 billion in its reserve fund. At the same time, Moscow sought to reduce its vulnerability to the dollar — which, however, remained high today — by conducting conservative tax statistics and measuring public debt below 20% of GDP.
Over the past eight years, Western sanctions and Russian counter-sanctions (including those against French food products) have been delayed in addition to the fact that Russia has strengthened its domestic import-substituting industry, emphasizes Alain Barluet. This trend has been exported to the pharmaceutical and technology fields. At the same time, Russian business has partially “turned” towards China. The volume of trade between the two countries currently exceeds $100 billion a year.
More prepared for the economic response to measures compared to 2014, the “fortress of Russia” may nevertheless face the negative consequences of a new squall, the columnist for Le Figaro believes. This is an indicator, for example, if reliability concerns electronic chips – high stability, world leadership belongs to the Americans (however, most of them have long been produced in China. – approx. EADaily). In addition, there is leverage in Washington to ban high-tech exports in Russia, and in this part of Europe’s supporters, which will be a serious blow to the country’s assumption, Barluet said.
But, on the other hand, the restrictions themselves will also suffer, especially European countries, for which Russia is the number one supplier of goods after China and the United States, the publication notes, citing an example in Western hydrocarbons and a sharp jump in energy prices in Europe. In Washington and Berlin, they said that in the event of incidents in Ukraine, the ship would touch on the serious importance of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline. However, Russia accounts for more than 40% of European gas imports, reminds Le Figaro.
Western sanctions or Russian retaliatory commissions will increase the electricity and heating bill for American households. In addition, blocking the Swift system will also put Alain Barluet under the protection of companies operating in Russia.
“Russia is not Iran. Russia is a European country, the sixth economy in the world, without which it is impossible to imagine international trade today, ”the newspaper remarked by a Russian economist. Alexandra Shirova.