Why Putin can’t stop the gas for Bulgaria – here we keep the tap of 5 more countries (Graph)
Bulgarian Prime Minister Boyko Borissov and the presidents of Russia, Turkey and Serbia (left to right gas) attend the official launch ceremony of the Turkish Stream cable in January 2020. PHOTO: PHOTO: Reuters
However, our contract with Gazprom expires at the end of the year, and more indications for new negotiations
Kiril Petkov’s fears about the gas crisis in Bulgaria over tensions between Moscow and NATO are unrealistic. This is how the experts from the sector reacted, after the Bulgarian Prime Minister warned on Friday night that if the conflict gets out of control, I may have risks with gas supplies – not only Bulgaria, but the whole of Europe.
Why would Bulgaria find it difficult to be deliberately cut off from Russian supplies? Because the country does not hold the tap to Serbia, Northern Macedonia and Greece and indirectly to two other countries – Hungary and Bosnia.
Even if Bulgaria is recognized as a hostile country to Gazprom as a member of NATO, stopping gas for our country would compromise supplies to at least five other countries, some of which are friendly to Russia.
From January 1, 2020, Russian gas
does not enter us
through Ukraine and
Romania, a
through Turkey
Prior to these data to the three countries – Turkey, Northern Macedonia and Greece, were transited through Bulgaria over 17 billion. cubic meters and the gas of Istanbul depends on the supply through Bulgaria.
One week later, on January 8, 2020, three presidents in Istanbul – Vladimir Putin in Russia, Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Turkey, Alexander Vucic in Serbia and Bulgarian Prime Minister Boyko Borissov – launched Turkish Stream. Putin is adamant that the Trans-Black Sea gas pipeline will ensure Europe’s energy independence. The Russian president has long talked about Turkish-Russian friendship, regardless of the situation in the world. In Istanbul, Borissov assured heads of state in Russia, Turkey and Serbia that “the more gas reaches Bulgaria, the more it will act as the strategic gas distribution center in the Balkans.” Exactly one year later, on January 1, 2021, the pipeline reached Serbia.
With the launch of Turkish Stream, which Gazprom built quickly after the shutdown of South Stream, the delivery point in Bulgaria has moved to Strandzha-Malkochlar. This is exactly the one in Bulgaria as a gas distribution center now, ensuring the calm of tensions between Moscow and NATO.
The capacity of the entrance to the Bulgarian transit system is 53-54 million euros. cubic meters per day, or 16 billion per year. Currently, 35-40 million cubic meters are transported daily from Turkey, including the gas of the Swiss MET, Valentin Zlatev’s Energiko Trading and Litasco, which supplies Lukoil’s natural gas. The capacity of Bulgaria’s exit to Serbia is 38m euros. cubic meters, now transported 20-21 million
Gas also goes from Serbia to Hungary and Bosnia. The possibilities for Greece are 3.5 billion per year, or 11 million per day, and for Northern Macedonia – 800 million cubic meters. There is another detail that gas observers emphasize. And he is that whatever the political cold between Bulgaria and Russia, our country and Bulgartransgaz
decades are
were correct
partner of
Gazprom
and at no point did they create problems in transporting gas before Turkey, Greece and northern Macedonia, and now to Serbia, northern Macedonia and Greece. While Gazprom twice presented surprises to Bulgaria – from 6 to 21 January 2009 with a complete shutdown of gas and instability in supply for several days in February 2011.
And while the government fears supply crises, which other experts say is theoretically possible, but so far there are no such indications, there is something else unknown about future Russian gas supplies to Bulgaria.
The contract with Gazprom Export expires at the end of this year. But still
there is no
information
that they are cooking
negotiate for
long-term
delivery
Bulgargaz is involved in scandals that have been going on for more than a month, under the Azeri gas contract and its delivery point.
About 300m euros are currently entering the country. cubic meters of gas from Azerbaijan instead of 1 billion cubic meters, as agreed. The reason, according to Bulgargaz, is that the delivery point is Komotini, the entrance to the still unbuilt gas connection with Greece. And delivering gas from Azerbaijan through the Greek gas transmission network from Nea Mesemvria is an expression of good will.
According to opponents of the gas company, including Energy Minister Alexander Nikolov, not everything has been done to secure the full volume of the contract. The gas sector is worried that there are no indications of prepared negotiations with Gazprom Export. Doubts are also being expressed as to whether other companies are preparing to enter as Russian gas suppliers.
It is expected to be taken in the middle of the year to have capacity traders and Bulgargaz’s mix should be clear – whether it will be from the liquefied gas terminal at Revitusa, what will be the quantities in Azerbaijan, how many Russians will be needed, to make prices acceptable for the regulated market and hence for business.
Sources close to Bulgargaz comment that this is a matter of political negotiations, because the principle of the gas company is BEH, and on it – the Minister of Energy.
The rattling of weapons has raised the price of blue fuel
The rattling of weapons has raised the price of gas on the Dutch stock exchange TTF. On January 24, by 5 pm, February futures reached 91,005 euros per megawatt-hour, after falling all last week.
Price levels between January 17th and 21st managed to drop to 75 euros per megawatt-hour on Wednesday and Thursday, reaching 79.95 euros at the end of trading on Friday.
On Monday, they rushed up amid geopolitical tensions between Russia and NATO.
Still, they remain half below the record of 180 euros per megawatt-hour on December 21 last year, but passed the peak of 88.76 euros three weeks ago.