Russian landing craft leave the Baltic Sea and raise concerns that Ukraine may become their final destination
Three Russian navy amphibious warships left the Baltic Sea, heading for the Atlantic, as tensions continued to surround Moscow’s build-up of troops and equipment around its borders with Ukraine. A separate flotilla of three Russian landing craft had previously been the cause latest alarm in Sweden, which sent additional forces to the island of Gotland, in the Baltic Sea, in response to the increased Russian shipping activity in the region.
The trio of ships that left the Baltic Sea today and are on their way to an unknown destination include Project 775 Ropucha class amphibious warships. All three, it Korolev, Minsk, and Kaliningrad, seen in Tweets embedded above. They left the port of Baltyysk in the Russian eclave of Kaliningrad on 15 January and passed earlier today through the Great Belt, the largest of the straits that connect the Baltic Sea with the Kattegat and which then leads to the Atlantic. Although marine transits, including those involving disembarkation vessels, to and from Kaliningrad are not uncommon, Swedish officials has clarified that the current level of activity is unusually high.
Ropucha class landing craft from the Northern Fleet in action during a previous exercise:
It seems that Western maritime patrol and surveillance aircraft have kept an eye on the Russian navy’s presence in the Baltic Sea. A US Navy P-8A maritime patrol aircraft was noted in operation off the Danish coast and across the Baltic Sea today, while a Swedish air force S 100D Argus Airborne aircraft for early warning and control have also been active in the region today, according to open source flight data.
The transit of the three Baltic fleets Ropuchas leaves two northern navy vessels of the same class in the Baltic Sea. These are Olenegorskiy Gornyak and Georgiy Pobedonosets. These ships were accompanied there by Project 11711
Ivan Gren class landing craft Pjotr Morgunov last week.
Each Ropucha Class ships can carry up to 10 main tanks and 340 soldiers, 550 tons of cargo or equivalent cargo. Desto modernare Ivan Gren class can carry up to 13 main tanks and about 300 soldiers. It is unclear what, if any, cargo the ships are currently carrying.
The ships of the three northern fleets had sailed from their home port on the Russian Kola Peninsula, sailed along the coast of Norway and then into the Baltic Sea via the Danish Strait on 12 January. During its passage, the ships were monitored by the Swedish Air Force, including the Gripen fighter aircraft.
“We have different types of sensors and systems that help us monitor the ships,” sa Therese Fagerstedt, Press Secretary for the Armed Forces. “We have also been able to follow them via our pilots in the air force and take pictures.”
– We are always interested in movements in our immediate area, and that in itself is nothing out of the ordinary, Fagerstedt added. “But given the growing tensions in the immediate area, we wanted to follow up and monitor these vessels. We also do this to give our officers a good basis for any decisions on measures from the Armed Forces. ”
The Armed Forces had already increased preparedness in response to a perceived deterioration in the security situation in the Baltic Sea last year. In August last year, Swedish armored vehicles were transported by civilian ferry to Gotland, the island that occupies a strategic position in the Baltic Sea, as another signal to Russia about its increased military activity in the region.
But the recent emergence of the three northern navy ships prompted Sweden at the end of last week to deploy hundreds of troops to once again strengthen Gotland. The troops were brought from the mainland with a combination of aircraft and passenger ferries.
In addition to the Russian naval operations in the Baltic Sea, the Swedish response has taken into account the security situation elsewhere in Eastern Europe, especially along Ukraine’s borders with Russia. Here, an influx of Russian troops and materiel has led to widespread concern that Moscow is ready to launch a potential new invasion of its neighbor.
– It is clear that there is a risk [to Gotland]”, Swedish Minister of Defense Peter Hultqvist explained on the weekend. “An attack on Sweden can not be ruled out. … It is important to show that we are not naive. In Sweden, you do not take a nap if something happens. It is important to send signals that we take this situation seriously. “
At the same time, Sweden has investigated the mysterious appearance of unidentified drones, which appeared in its airspace over several nuclear power plants, on 14 January. An investigation of the incident, which War zones
covered at that time, is now in progress.
Denmark has also recently announced additional military action in response to what it has decided to be Russian threats against Ukraine. The country will deploy four F-16 fighter jets to the Šiauliai air base in Lithuania, while the frigate Peter Willemoes will be made available to NATO naval forces and is expected to patrol the Baltic Sea. Both implementations will begin before the end of the month.
“We have a very serious situation regarding Russia’s build – up of troops on the border with Ukraine,” explained Danish Foreign Minister Jeppe Kofod. “It threatens European security.” The Danish Minister of Defense, Trine Bramsen, added that the move was intended as “a very clear signal to Russia.”
There has been speculation that the three landing vessels from the Baltic Fleet may be on their way to the Black Sea. Last year, the waters around the Russian-occupied Crimean peninsula were exposed to some tense battles between the Russian navy and NATO warships. Since then, the overall security situation has become more alarming, with the constant influx of Russian troops and materiel to the border areas adjacent to Ukraine, including Crimea. The result has been fears of a potential invasion of Ukraine, an issue that was high on the agenda during recent talks between Russian and Western officials that ended in a stalemate. And should an invasion of Ukraine via the southern route manifest itself, the Black Sea Fleet would be almost certain to carry out an amphibious landing in the Sea of Azov. The arrival of two large landing craft would provide a significant addition to the Black Sea Fleet’s existing resources.
To this comes the factor upcoming exercises involves Russia and its close ally Belarus, which also borders Ukraine. Russian forces have begun arriving in Belarus for the maneuvers, which do little to address the soaring tensions between Moscow and western Ukraine. In the past, there have been predictions that a new Russian invasion of Ukraine could very well mean that troops arrive across the Belarusian border. The latest series of Russian / Belarusian exercises are taking place significantly along the southern and western borders of the latter country, adjacent to both Ukraine and NATO member Poland.
The transfer of the Baltic Fleet’s vessels can also be an easy transfer of assets, with the three Ropuchas from Baltyysk which is now sailing to the Kola Peninsula to take the place of the three northern fleet landing craft which are now in the Baltic Sea.
Another alternative could involve the transfer of the Baltic Fleet Ropuchas to the port of Russia Tartus on the Mediterranean coast of Syria. This port has played an important role since Moscow launched its Syrian campaign in 2015, receiving a steady stream of ships carrying cargo from Russia.
Whether they are heading for the Black Sea or the Mediterranean, these routes would almost certainly see Ropuchas transit through the English Channel, warning the interests of the British Armed Forces. In the past, Russian navy warships passing through this body of water have received much attention from both Royal Navy ships and Royal Air Force aircraft.
Whatever the ultimate destination for Ropuchas, it is a reflection of the very strained relations that currently exist between Moscow and the West. At this time, with rhetoric at the height of all quarters, and without any clearly defined playoffs to Russia’s obvious brinkmanship around Ukraine’s borders, a movement of warships that may have been seen as fairly routine during less uncertain times is now cause for some disappointment.
Update, 13.45 PST: This article has been amended to reflect the fact that the Royal Danish Air Force’s F-16 will be deployed at the Šiauliai air base in Lithuania. The base also currently houses a rotating division of the Polish Air Force’s F-16.
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