We can electrify Norway without building a single new wind turbine
CHRONICLE: Electrification of the shelf is the most ineffective and energy-free climate roof of all.
Debate post
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Sveinulf Vågene
Advisor in Motvind Norway, leader of the study project «Energy and nature»
In a news article on E24 / Aftenbladet.no on 22 December – under the title «- We must accept that watercourses are regulated and wind turbines are set up to electrify» – Jon Evang from Zero claims that we must develop more hydropower and wind power on land for to electrify the shelf. Zero is wrong and is promoting it by destroying climate measures.
Zero will send large amounts of electricity to the shelf as “artificial green breathing” for the oil industry. They will consume large areas of valuable nature and open air areas for the wind industry to produce this power. The gas as spare parts, sends to the EU and is burned there. Almost the same amount of CO is released into the atmosphere.
The state pays 78 percent of the costs. Norwegian households that are already heavily burdened by the electricity price shock will also pay the bill in the form of increased grid rent and a further increase in the price of electricity.
“Wind power is controversial […] But there is no way around it », Evang continues. Her bummer Zero.
The best opportunities
I report «Energy policy on nature’s terms – for the benefit of climate, biodiversity, people and business» describes and documents a sustainable way forward for Norwegian energy policy – without destroying valuable nature, outdoor areas and people’s living environment. The report is funded by Headwind Norway and is written by 20 volunteer professionals from a wide range of disciplines in energy, environment and nature.
The main conclusion is that, compared to 2020, through increased power production and energy efficiency, we can get over 70 TWh more power available in 2040. By 2050, we can get over 80 TWh. Both without building a single new wind turbine. It is more than enough to cover any rational future power needs for the next 30 years.
The numerical basis for our estimates is taken from public reports. We have added up the figures for the energy contributions from the various energy sources and calculated the total sum. We do not know of others who have performed this basic calculation before. That’s weird!
The table below shows how much power we can get available by 2050 relative to Norway’s power consumption in 2020, which was 134 TWh:
Behind the numbers
Based on high in reports from Arnstad Committee (2010) on energy efficiency in the construction sector, Sintef (2015), the Norwegian Construction Industry Association (2019), the Norwegian Housing Construction Association (2019) and the Heat Pump Association, we can reduce energy consumption in buildings by 34 TWh by 2050.
In addition, 9 TWh comes from industry and 1.5 TWh from business and public administration. In total, the potential for energy efficiency is approx. 45 TWh by 2050.
This means that we reduce energy consumption, relative to 2020, by a third. This is in line with the International Energy Agency (IEA), which states that energy will be by far the most important contributor to emission efficiency. An investment in energy efficiency will also create thousands of jobs throughout the country.
NTNU assesses that we can get 15–20 TWh more out of hydropower by upgrading existing hydropower plants. We have only put in 12 TWh to be careful, but more can be obtained if you want.
Hydropower production will also increase due to climate change. NVE estimates that there will be 10 TWh more precipitation by the middle of the century. At the same time, winters will be warmer, which is expected to lead to a reduced need for heating of 2 TWh.
Mandatory revisions of hydropower to increase water flow in some watercourses are estimated by Statkraft to be a maximum of 6 TWh. We have introduced reduced energy production of minus 6 TWh by 2050.
This is due to the large and increased level of conflict, which is not building significantly more wind power in Norway. Many wind licenses will not be renewed when they expire. We expect that in 2050 we will have approx. 7 TWh of wind power on land. Therefore, we add a reduction of minus 3 TWh compared to the 10 TWh wind power that was produced in 2020.
In 2020 we exported 20 TWh of power and in 2021 17.4 TWh. We have therefore posted an average power surplus in 2020 of 15 TWh. It can be used for export or national needs.
Together, these contributions and increased power supply amount to at least 82 TWh by 2050. With this power, we can electrify Norway and build a lot of new industry. There is no need to inflict deep ecological grief on people from the destruction and consumption of their local nature to the wind industry.
The most meaningless
Zero and many of our politicians’ consumption-oriented approach to the green shift show that we need a new and sustainable energy policy. Heavy investment must be made in using the energy resources one already has more efficiently and rationally.
The first thing we need to do is put an end to the electrification of the shelf. It is the most ineffective and energy-saving climate roof of all, and it will be a gigantic energy drain with almost zero climate effect. Are we more concerned with polishing our own reflection than cutting greenhouse gas emissions?