Research: Incidents in Greece are expected to increase by 45% by 2050 | HEALTH
Greece will be one of the countries with the smallest increase in dementia cases in the future, by “only” 45% by 2050.
At the same time, a worldwide study of tripling dementia in people over 40, from 57 million in 2019 to 153 million in 205, according to a new major international scientific study.
The increase of the world population and its gradual aging – that is, the increase of the percentage of the elderly as a whole – largely explains this development.
The researchers, led by Dr. Emma Nicole of the Institute for Health Measurement and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington in Seattle, USA, published their findings in the public health journal The Lancet Public Health and analyzed data from 204 countries. . This is the most comprehensive international observation and modeling study to date (funded by the Melina and Bill Getz Foundation), which links dementia to four major risk factors: smoking, obesity, high blood sugar, and low education.
The incidence of dementia will increase in the middle of the century all over the planet
Incidents are estimated to increase by the middle of the century in all countries of the world, with the smallest percentage increase in the developed countries of Asia-Pacific (53%) and Western Europe (74%), while the largest in North Africa -Middle East (367%) and East Sub-Saharan Africa (357%).
The five countries with the lowest increase in cases between 2019-2050 are estimated to be: Japan (27%), Bulgaria (37%), Serbia (38%), Lithuania (44%) and Greece (45%) ).
Greece, according to the study, had in 2019 about 206,000 cases of spring (possible range 174,643 to 240,487), while in 2050 it does not have around 299,000 (the order 237,117-371,264 increases) with a possible range of 24% minimum to maximum 67%). By comparison, the increase in incidents in the period 2019-2050 is estimated at 56% in Italy, 65% in Germany, 75% in Britain and Portugal, 82% in France, 83% in Spain, 100% in the USA, 145% in Israel , 175% in Cyprus and 277% in Turkey.
The five countries with the largest increase are all Arab: Qatar (1.926%), United Arab Emirates (1.795%), Bahrain (1.084%), Oman (943%) and Saudi Arabia (898%).
Dementia is the seventh leading cause of death worldwide
Dementia – predominantly Alzheimer’s disease – is now the seventh leading cause of death worldwide and one of the leading causes of disability, mobility and dependence of the elderly on other people. According to case estimates, up to 40% of dementia cases could be prevented or slowed by addressing 12 risk factors: low education, hypertension, hearing loss, smoking, obesity in middle age, depression, social inactivity, isolation, excessive alcohol consumption, head injuries and air pollution.
If access to education improves, it is estimated that there will be 6.2 million fewer cases by 2050. On the other hand, this decrease could be offset (by 6.8 million more cases in the spring) by a future increase in obesity. high in sugar and smoking.
As Dr. Nichols pointed out, “we need to focus more on preventing and controlling risk factors before they lead to dementia. “For most countries, this means programs that support healthier eating, more exercise, smoking cessation and better access to education.”
Globally, women today suffer from dementia compared to men (in a ratio of 100-69), something that has not continued until 050. underlying biological mechanisms of dementia.