The spread of omicron is slower than expected
The fifth wave of infection is sweeping across Europe, and in several countries it is setting new infection records. Denmark has the most infected in Europe and twice as many hospitalized as Norway.
In the last 24 hours, 4702 corona infections have been registered in Norway. That is an increase of 952 since the day before.
Frode Forland, director of the National Institute of Public Health, believes that regardless of the number is a sign that we are heading in the right direction.
– The very last numbers I see as if there has been a little lack of registration at Christmas. When we see this in perspective a week ago, we have a decline in Norway. This is a good sign that the measures that were launched a few weeks ago have had an effect – especially on the delta virus.
The spread is slower than expected
During the pandemic, FHI has assumed a number of risk assessments. These are used to make forecasts to support the health service in the planning.
In Denmark, the double time for the omicron variant has been 2-3 days, which was also feared here in Norway.
– If we got a doubling rate of 2-3 days, it would be very demanding, says Forland, and adds:
– Well, we probably see that the doubling rate is a little longer than that – four days plus. If it works, we believe we can handle this with the steps that have been taken.
– Not with any relief prior?
– It is too early to say whether we can go into it yet. We need longer observation time to see if omicron leads to more hospital admissions.
– It’s hope
Despite high omicron infection rates, hospitalizations remain relatively stable. The subject director believes this may be due to various reasons.
– It may mean that it is hope that what we have set of international studies to give milder diseases, but it may also be an expression that we have a better immunity in the population.
Throughout the pandemic, Norway has closely followed Denmark closely, as they have been slightly ahead of Norway in development.
– They are a little ahead of us on the trail, got omikron a little earlier and got a bigger wave in. They have had very high infection rates in recent weeks. They also have a lot of pressure on the hospitals and have more than twice as many inpatients as us, but they have fewer inpatients in the intensive care unit by population and by inpatients in the hospital.
New treatment may be the rescue
Forland believes we can look to Denmark’s inspiration for how we can reduce the pressure on the health service.
– In Denmark, they try to treat more at home, by giving out equipment so that people themselves can monitor oxygen saturation and other things that are linked to the disease. One is in home observation in contact with the hospital via an app, he says.
He believes it can help reduce the number of inpatients in the intensive care unit.
– I think it can be very important to take the top of a very high wave of infection. Maybe we can have less restrictions in society if we get a greater ability to handle seriously ill people in the hospital, says the director, and adds:
– It will be relevant for an intensive care unit and a possible handling of an infection ward or a lung record for example.
– A peak in January or February
The inmates at the hospital are mostly unvaccinated. Forland believes this should be a clear message that everyone who can should take the vaccine.
– It is a disproportionate amount of unvaccinated. Those who are vaccinated have an average age of 80 years, while the unvaccinated have an average age of 50 years.
He believes we have not yet put an end to the pandemic.
– We must expect that we will get a peak in January or February due to omicron infection in society. And then it is important that we manage to balance the measures so that we do not shut down society more, but can stay open as much as possible while we do not get a lot of pressure on municipal health services and specialist health services.