Sweden’s Social Democrats turn left – The Social Democrats’ future
It was meant to be a clear deal. But then November 25, 2021, became a remarkably messy day in Swedish politics. After Prime Minister Stefan Löfven announced his resignation in August, many had expected a smooth transition. But the transfer of power turned out to be surprisingly turbulent, a perfect illustration of the polarized, divided and fragile situation in the Swedish parliament – ever since the very controversial and populist Sweden Democrats were represented in 2010.
What had happened? As expected, Magdalena Andersson was approved as Prime Minister with votes from her Social Democratic party and their supposed coalition partner The Greens, while the Left Party and the Center Party tolerated the minority coalition. But then followed the vote on the budget. In protest against a planned pension increase, the Center Party surprisingly broke the agreement and supported the opposition’s budget proposal and provided it with a majority that trumps the new minority government’s budget proposal.
As a consequence, the Greens left the coalition with the Social Democrats and refused to work with a budget that was supported by the nationalist conservative Sweden Democrats. After only seven hours in service, Magdalena Andersson therefore had to resign. When Magdalena Andersson was approved as Prime Minister again a few days later, she was now the head of a one-party minority government.
Who is Magdalena Andersson?
Magdalena Andersson is a well-known and highly regarded personality in Swedish politics. She was generally perceived as a very competent finance minister, having held that role from 2014 to 2021. During her term, she continued the fiscal austerity policy, implemented by previous Social Democratic governments since the financial crisis hit Sweden in the early 1990s. She has repeatedly said that she wants to ‘save in the barns for worse days ahead’. Her political and ideological profile remained somewhat blurred.
Will Anderson revive traditional Social Democratic politics?
But in May 2021, Andersson led a group within the Social Democratic Party that published a report entitled ‘Distribution policy for equality and justice‘. This report has been branded as a settlement with the social development in Sweden over the past forty years, and points the finger at the growing inequalities that have arisen through political decisions by previous governments, both right and left. The report concludes with a number of reform proposals, ranging from tax reforms to measures that strengthen the welfare sector and social security systems. It was widely regarded as an ideological statement, based on traditional Social Democratic ideas and values, and was well received by the increasingly vocal left wing of the Social Democrats.
When Magdalena Andersson was finally able to submit her government declaration in the Riksdag on 30 November, she sent a clear, left-wing, ‘traditional’ Social Democratic message. In the speech, Andersson set three priorities for his government: fight gang-related crime, accelerate the green industrial revolution and regain control of the welfare system. Is this the beginning of a new left turn in Sweden? Will Anderson revive traditional Social Democratic politics? And will her attitude help the Social Democrats succeed in the upcoming election in September 2022?
The Social Democrats’ left turn
Three factors point to a broader shift that the Social Democrats could benefit from. First, the tide has turned against neoliberalism, not only among the general public but also in most mainstream media. Privatization, marketing and “new public management” are no longer seen as credible solutions to current problems. This provides scope for prioritizing strengthening the welfare state and increasing public control, as Magdalena Andersson emphasized in her declaration. The neglect and cutbacks of the welfare state and the social security network have been exposed during the pandemic. The Social Democrats have a long tradition of falling back on to counteract this development.
Sweden’s political immigration conflict has been resolved, given that all major parties are equally strict on refugee policy.
In addition, Sweden is at the beginning of a “green industrial revolution”, and this puts the focus on labor market policy as well as on industrial and regional issues – and again it is traditional social democratic forces. The current situation is ripe for more left-wing politics from the Social Democratic Party, not least because Sweden’s finances are strong. If the party succeeds in showing some progress in these areas and making them the most prominent issues ahead of the 2022 election, the favor of voters is likely to increase significantly.
Secondly, the political conflict over immigration has been abolished, given that all major parties are equally strict when it comes to refugee policy. The same applies to the view of law and order, which means that these issues will hardly be decisive in the forthcoming election. In addition, the in-depth cooperation between the Conservatives and the Christian Democrats with the former pariahs in Swedish politics, the Sweden Democrats, is quite controversial. While their alliance is based on their converging stance on immigration and law and order, the parties are deeply divided on social security and welfare policies. It will make it difficult for them to win over more liberal voters and the Sweden Democrats will fight to maintain their strong support in the working class. Should the gap between the parties increase, the Social Democrats will probably benefit.
Thirdly, it can help the Social Democrats to join the election movement and lead a minority government with one party. With a new party leader, it may be possible for them to distance themselves from the coalition government’s policy between 2014 and 2021, while pointing out the party’s expertise and experience of negotiation. The eight months remaining until the next parliamentary election in Sweden can leave room for the Social Democrats to represent themselves as a reliable alternative to the most conservative opposition ever seen in Sweden.
The election in September 2022 will show whether Magdalena Andersson and her newly formed government will have taken this opportunity. Should they fail, Swedish politics could become even more chaotic in the coming years.